Premier Asset Management Share Discussion Threads

[gsbmba99] 17/4/2018 13:46

PAM fund factsheets (excl listed ITs) have been updated to end March. Sum of fund AuM as at 31 Mar is £6,035.4m as compared to £6,110.1m as at 28 Feb which is -£74.7m or -1.22%. AuM increased at 8 of 23 funds. The above excludes listed investment trusts and discretionary mandates. Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between market performance and net inflows. As at 31 Mar, UK retail funds (excl listed ITs) were 94.8% of the £6,365.3m of corporate AuM.

[gsbmba99] 10/4/2018 07:24

Trading statement out this morning. A bit naughty as they've rolled up the March quarter into a 6 month period as opposed to dislosing it discretely. I get sales of £564m, redemptions of £389m with net sales of £175m. Market performance in the quarter was -£255.9m and outweighed net sales to result in a small decline in AuM for the quarter. Trailing 12 month market performance is -£12m. YoY AuM growth was still a healthy 15.1% but is the lowest in my spreadsheet which dates back to calendar Q413 (second lowest 16.9% in calendar Q216). Net sales encouragingly strong in an otherwise pretty terrible quarter.

[gsbmba99] 14/3/2018 16:43

PAM fund factsheets (excl listed ITs) have been updated to end February. Sum of fund AuM as at 28 Feb is £6,110.1m as compared to £6,141.7m as at 31 Jan which is -£31.6m or -0.51%. AuM increased at 10 of 23 funds. The multi-asset series gained AuM in aggregate with (maybe unsurprisingly) absolute return proving popular (AuM +8.4%) and each of the Liberation funds also gained (none meaningfully). Not sure what a good benchmark is but MSCI UK was -4.75% in Feb and is -5.31% YTD through Feb. PAM.L is essentially flat AuM through the first two calendar months which strikes me as very good relatively speaking. The above excludes listed investment trusts and discretionary mandates. Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between market performance and net inflows. As at 31 Dec, UK retail funds (excl listed ITs) were 94.7% of corporate AuM.

[gsbmba99] 15/2/2018 18:21

PAM fund factsheets (excl listed ITs) have been updated to end January. Sum of fund AuM as at 31 Jan is £6,141.7m as compared to £6,104.5m as at 31 Dec which is +£37.2m or +0.61%. AuM increased at 16 of 23 funds. All six funds in the multi-asset series gained AuM. Looks good in the circumstances but Feb perhaps more revealing. The above excludes listed investment trusts and discretionary mandates. Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between market performance and net inflows.

[gsbmba99] 08/2/2018 17:57

The Investment Association published their Dec and 2017 figures today ( ). Some interesting items of info based on a casual flip through. Total funds under management exceed £1.2tn. Mixed asset about 16.3% of FuM at £222bn (p.3). Retail net sales had a staggeringly good year at nearly £47bn (p.4) (some of which probably a bounce from a very low 2016). Mixed asset about 25-30% of net retail sales for 2017 (p.6). Mixed investment (20-60% shares), mixed investment (40-85% shares) and targeted absolute return each are in top 7 sectors for net retail sales for 17 (along with strategic bond and corporate bond) (p.8). The best selling sector in the last 10 years - mixed investment (20-60% shares) 4x, corporate bond 2x, targeted absolute return 2x, strategic bond 1x, equity income 1x (p.10). Worst selling sector in 7 of last 8 years - UK all companies. There seems a quite heavy focus on income producing assets amongst chart-topping sectors.

[villarich] 19/1/2018 20:34

Picked up another 1k shares just before the close. I had a little bit of spare cash in my SIPP so thought I'd put it to some use. Happy to ride the up trend for a while as part of this incredible bull run

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 15:10

FWIW, I don't have access to the full-text of the report but I got a notification from Research Tree of a Liberum note with the headline "Strong Q1'18 trading update in line with our forecasts"

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 13:06

Hypothetically speaking, if one applied the 32% first quarter dividend YoY growth to last year's total dividend of 8p one would arrive at 10.56p which would be, I believe, very consistent with consensus.

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 10:14

Happy to incite :-)
Just looking through spreadsheet again. Net management fee margin was 73.9bps for 9/17. Using average AuM for Q1FY18, net revenue should be about £11.6m. Using full year 9/17 "clean" operating profit margin (operating profit (excl trail commission and amort of acquired intangible assets) divided by management fee less trail commission ie net mangement fee) of 35%, "clean" operating profit should have been in the region of £4.05m.

[martinthebrave] 10/1/2018 09:03

gsbmba99 - Very helpful. I appreciate your incite. I am happy to hold.

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 08:36

I'm not entirely sure what to make of the divi. It is, after all, +32% on last year which should be encouraging. The divi policy is for three quarterly divis representing approx half and a final representing approx half. So, on a strict interpretation, that leads to 1.65p * 6 = 9.9p. However, last year the strict interpretation led you to project 7.5p and it turned out to be 8p because the final was 4.25p instead of 1.25p*3=3.75p. I'm still encouraged by the divi growth even if it doesn't quite align with broker forecast at the moment. I haven't met the management team but my sense, from reading relatively cautious outlook comments in the middle of this market is that they are being conservative. The AuM growth is good and it should lead, assuming it continues, to good financial performance.

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 08:27

Martin, drawing conclusions on Rev, PBT, EPS is really difficult for PAM on the basis of an AuM update. If you look through the accounts, you'll notice that PAM statutory revenue is inflated by the collection of trail commissions on pre-RDR share class holdings. It's about £5m/year. The trail commissions then get paid out to the brokers as a cost. As a result, there's about £5m coming in and going out that distort the comparisons. Rev growth looks flatter than net revenue growth because trail commissions are reducing over time. Cost growth looks flatter than costs excl trail commissions because trail commissions are reducing. I would tend to focus on YoY growth in AuM (23.8%) as this should drive net revenue growth of 23.8% (assuming no erosion of net revenue margin). With a bit of margin expansion (revenue growth > cost growth), PBT can grow faster than net revenue. Net revenue margin actually increased by a couple of bps in 9/17. For what it's worth, net revenue for Q1FY18 should be about £11.75m using 75bps and average AuM for the period.

[martinthebrave] 10/1/2018 07:58

gsbmba99 - The performance seems strong but I find this update pretty difficult to compare to forecast Rev, PBT, EPS etc. The f'cast Divi is 10.62p. You are closer to this, do you have any views?

[gsbmba99] 10/1/2018 07:24

AuM update with first quarter dividend announcement. FYQ118 period end AuM of £6.45bn +23.8% on prior year, an increase of £1.24bn. That £1.24bn derived from £397.1m of market performance and £842.7m of net sales. Net sales of £236.4m is the fourth strongest quarter. In 6 of last 7 quarters, gross sales have exceeded £0.5bn. First quarter divi of 1.65p (ex 1 Feb, pay 2 Mar) a bit less than I had been anticipating. It points to 9.9p using a 1.65p * 6 "formula" though the total divi last year was better than this "formula" would have indicated because the final divi was larger.

[topvest] 02/1/2018 21:11

Yes, a very strong start to the new year for fund management groups. Markets at all time highs is probably the reason. Nice for me though as fund management groups are my favourite sector by far!

[villarich] 02/1/2018 16:45

Nice rise today and good to see momentum continuing. I bought in on 6th Dec at 212 after this share popped up on my screen and fundamentals looked good. Nice divi too! Onwards and upwards.

[gsbmba99] 19/12/2017 21:02

Good to see another shareholder on the board. Good timing. Always nice to get in immediately before a bit of a re-rating. It is, as someone else said previously, remarkably quiet given the 2017 share price performance.

[martinthebrave] 19/12/2017 19:29

Hi gsbmba99, joined you here on 11th Dec 209p. Very happy so far as my timing for once was to perfection! Appreciate your posts.

[gsbmba99] 19/12/2017 19:10

PAM fund factsheets (excl listed ITs) have been updated to end November. Sum of fund AuM as at 30 Nov is £5,979.8 as compared to £5,931.3 as at 31 Oct which is +£48.5m or +0.82%. Cumulative increase since 30 Sep is £229.8m or 4%. AuM increased at 16 of 23 funds (Multi-Asset Absolute Return was flat). Looks reasonable in the circumstances. The above excludes listed investment trusts and discretionary mandates. Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between market performance and net inflows.

[gsbmba99] 30/11/2017 08:36

Results look good. Final dividend 4.25p and total dividend for the FY17 year of 8p are 0.5p better than the 1.25*3*2=7.5p dividend policy would have indicated. Net management fee margin +0.4bps is encouraging. Underlying PBT CAGR of 36.4% since FY15 is very strong, resulting from revenues growing much faster than costs. MIFIDII research costs to be absorbed for all funds (except equity) but not material.

[gsbmba99] 20/11/2017 12:15

PAM fund factsheets (excl listed ITs) have been updated to end October. Sum of fund AuM as at 31 Oct is £5,931.3 as compared to £5,750.0 as at 30 Sep which is +£181.3m or +3.15%. AuM increased at 22 of 23 funds (Corporate Bond Monthly Income was flat). Looks like a strong month. Strategic High Income Bond looks to have closed some time in August with last reported AuM of £8.9m as at end July. The above excludes listed investment trusts and discretionary mandates. Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between market performance and net inflows.

[gsbmba99] 10/10/2017 07:58

Q4 trading update out. Q4 AuM of nearly £6.1bn +21.8% YoY. Q4 net sales of £205.2m is the 8th best quarter in the last 5 years. Full year net sales of £747m declined for the second consecutive year. Gross sales have been >£0.5bn each quarter this year which would be really encouraging if it weren't for the level of redemptions. It seems a powerful distribution platform if they could get more of their customers to hold the funds for longer.

[gsbmba99] 06/10/2017 17:07

Probably people looking forward to 2018 multiples since asset management not reliant on surge of activity immediately prior to period end. I've been experimenting with tracking the month end values of the funds they manage from the fund fact sheets. By my calculations, the fund level AuM was +£121m in Jul and +£76m in Aug to £5.845bn. That's +3.5% since 30 Jun (towards the lower end of annualised growth in the last 15 quarters) but it's during peak holiday period so hopefully September was stronger. Fund level AuM is the sum total of the net assets of each of the funds plus the gross assets of Premier Energy & Water Trust and Acorn Income but excludes third party/segregated mandates (most recently disclosed as £148.7m on 30 Jun 16). Fund level AuM doesn't distinguish between net new money and market performance.

[saucepan] 06/10/2017 15:44

A very quiet board. A nice breakout today.

[topvest] 11/7/2017 20:37

Yes, all good.