Portland Gas Share Discussion Threads

[chrismez] 07/9/2009 12:59

Here we go back down again - wonder if the MM's are going to make us a triple bottom at 85p !!

[saywellxxx] 03/9/2009 09:51

Hi Chris - I would copy the charts if I could but I have neither the technical abilities nor the right, looking at the little © in the corner! The range I was looking at was daily close from 21 July, and although not completely accurate I used 84 as support and 94 as resistance (mid-prices). Nice to see the move up and technicaly looks like it's in an upward channel. Also like the fundamentals although I am concerned that the price of gas has yet to find a bottom, and at the seeming bearish sentiment around FTSE. Hopefully won't affect the propects of PTG too much and will herald the start of a larger retrace.

And of course it is right to question the validity of charting on a relatively low value and illiquid stock such as PTG (some might question it on any stock), but I still find it a useful guide and to me, a break out is a break out, never mind what the stock/commodity etc. And personally speaking I prefer double tops! Cheers

[chrismez] 02/9/2009 11:26

You're right Holism - funding will cause this to gap up / blast off possibly even back to its previous highs. But in the meantime the charts are providing a modicom of interest. The last six weeks or so this has been trading 85p - 100p like clockwork - up one day down the next. Looking back longer term tho it is still making higher lows even after the June high and subsequent drop off and some might say it is still even now in an upwward trading range, others might say it's forming a wedge. Who knows?

The two lows at the beginning of August and mid Aug are interesting to me cos it looks to have found its floor there at about 85p. That's the mark I'm currently using. But I would still be interested to see any charts from saywell and others.

Edit: I should have said that I'm a big fan of double bottoms - if you get my drift.!

[holism] 01/9/2009 19:30

isn't this share all about funding? Share dealing volume will tell us when to buy!The charts are probably otiose in this instance.

[chrismez] 01/9/2009 14:58

Good luck to you saywell. Interesting flip back up towards £1 mark today. saywell do you have some charts you can post on here showing tramlines of the upward range you mention? Ta.

[saywellxxx] 29/8/2009 07:34

I have seen suggestions in some quarters that gas prices can only rise from here. Add that to the easing of the financial crisis (if you believe the optimists), the likely newsflow as we enter the funding phase of the project, and the fact that the share price has been range bound since 21 July, and there is a potent mix of factors which will hopefully underpin a rise in the share price I have taken a small long position, with a stop just below the range low in case it falls out that side instead of the other. Currently near the top of the range so looking more likely to break to the upside, but you just never know in this game do you? I'll be adding if an upward range break looks to have legs. Good luck to all.

[chrismez] 25/8/2009 09:36

Well they're not exactly going at a clip but on the bright side we now have some senior accountants in place ready to tackle the funding issue and we have from now til the end of September for rumours and possibly even news to leak out about who has expressed an interest in joining the co-operation Group. And then we have until Q1 2010 for rumours to circulate about who is going to bid/invest. Next seven and half months could see some interesting blips as peeps buy / sell on the rumour!

[airforce11] 17/8/2009 18:01

mina,
Cheers for that I'll keep this on my watch list.

[mina123golf2] 17/8/2009 17:29

airforce11 Judging by todays erratic movement in the share price (up 5p then down 4p)it seems that negotiations are ongoing as they have been for many months and no light is yet visible at the tunnel end. Oh for some positive news to get this moving upwards.....

[paul p] 17/8/2009 17:26

Moneyweek main article was written by Eoin Gleeson. The news on funding is that there is no news on funding, still to be sorted out.

[airforce11] 17/8/2009 11:09

What is the latest re funding.

[mina123golf2] 17/8/2009 10:56

Kooba Many thanks for the Moneyweek article - it does not tell us anything we did not already know however - kind of "typical of Moneyweek"!!!! Do you happen to know who the Moneyweek author of this article was???

[kooba] 17/8/2009 09:50

for those interested the moneyweek piece.
The best bet in the sector
Portland Gas (LSE: PTG) has been fighting to get the Dorset project up and running. A struggle for finance saw the stock drop from a peak of 430p to the 93p it trades today. Indeed, the company has had to adopt a phased approach in order to reduce initial construction costs. For example, it farmed out the initial construction of the project for £300,000 to Hydrock Consulting.



But everything rests on whether it can secure the £450m needed to complete the project. Portland's management has already amended its target for first gas from mid to late 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. The project faces further delay if the company is unable to construct the necessary pipelines across Weymouth Bay before Olympic sailing trials take over the area in 2011.

But having completed the tortuous planning process, progress has been made. The Dorset project would be the UK's largest onshore gas storage facility – potentially able to provide 5% of the UK's peak daily gas demand. Portland also has a second project at Larne Lough in Northern Ireland, where it is aiming to secure a planning application later this year. It's quite a gamble. But "Portland's shares could fly should it secure project finance", says Martin Li in Investors Chronicle.

[mina123golf2] 15/8/2009 13:24

Oh crumbs!!!! Recommended by Moneyweek - that is for certain the kiss of death.Moneyweek has a phenomenal record of disasters when tipping shares. I refer you in particular to the chronic record of their Paul Hill.I used to read this weekly publication keeping a note of their "tips" and watching developments - I dont read it any more!!!!!!

[ptolemy] 14/8/2009 15:57

No; a keen observer with my finger close to the buy button!

[eacn] 14/8/2009 15:46

Ptolemy,

Good to see you here. I am familiar with your posts on the TR32 thread. Are you a PTG holder?

[ptolemy] 14/8/2009 14:40

Recommended as best in sector, today, by Moneyweek.

[mina123golf2] 03/8/2009 11:18

eacn Many thanks for your observations. The pipeline being put back until 2012 is not helpful to the cause. The fact that we are no nearer securing financing is also a setback and I fear the longer this uncertainty continues the less likely is a positive outcome.

[eacn] 03/8/2009 07:41

mina123golf2,

There are two possible reasons for the fall: no pipeline until after the 2012 games; and, an extended timetable for fund raising.

We can now see why the management have tried to limit cash outflows by paying for services in shares: the projected timetable for funding requires the business to have sufficient cash to cover expenses to Q2 2010.

The funding structure is complex and the negotiations will no doubt be tortuous. There is a risk that the negotiations will fail.

An interesting development is the paper (posted on PTG's web site) touting Portland as a potential swing storage facility for LNG. LNG has clearly become a big issue in the negotiations and PTG has had to respond. The focus on extrinsic rather than intrinsic value also suggests that the market is beginning to think that LNG may reduce the instrinsic value of gas storage.

Overall my impression is that PTG is still fighting to justify its value to operators, who remain sceptical of the need for storage in the medium term and are hesitatn about making long term committments in circumstances where the gas supply mix is rapidly changing.

If funding is obtained I remain of the view that Portland is worth at least 200p, with another 50p for larne, but that the funding outcome remains uncertain. The current news is probably neutral to slightly negative and I therefore continue to rate the chances of success as roughly even.

[eringael] 31/7/2009 11:55

apparently it has been tipped to soar in investors chronicle, always the kiss
of death!!

[mina123golf2] 31/7/2009 08:56

What is going on??? Is today not the day when work finally gets underway??Is this not the day the contract for £300000 finally starts?? Yesterday we had a RNS. Today the share price has dropped 4.5p and there is a sea of red with sells all over the place.I had anticipated a significant rise in the share price but disappointment yet again with Portland Gas. WHY????

[holism] 17/7/2009 15:31

eacn, I tend to agree with you. We have done the numbers many times but it's up to the management to prove the business model chosen.Until the funding is in place its very hard to ascribe a value to existing shreholders. We could be diluted considerably.

[eacn] 17/7/2009 15:03

From the JTC thread:

JT,

I had guessed that there was a British Salt deal in the offing from the budget, where in a little noticed measure Darling allowed cavern leaching costs to be set against the revenues from salt trading. Since British Salt are the only outfit that could feasibly trade salt from leaching (Portland can't) it implied that the concession had been given to incentivise a deal with British Salt.

The budget also included provision for cushion gas in depleted fields to qualify for capital allowances, a clear sop to Centrica who favour depleted fields for gas storage (and it will help Portland at Larne). However, there was nothing in the budget red book for salt cavern drilling costs (an important boost for Portland).

I have now done some digging on this and have established that salt cavern drilling costs will in fact qualify for capital allowances in a similar way to water extraction drilling costs, so Portland should in fact get a c. £50m break from HMRC for Portland drilling. Nothing has been officially announced but I have had the fact confirmed by two tax consultants specialising in this area.

[eacn] 17/7/2009 12:42

holism,

Would you care to expand on post 1055? Do you have a view, or have you heard any speculation as to where the share price might be if funding or debt finance is confirmed?