Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[ianbag] 11/11/2016 17:08

Some of the sells are buys as I did 2 top ups in my isa and sipp and they are showing as sells

[bishopawn] 11/11/2016 17:00

Must be some good news already in the pipeline for next week. Better to be IN than OUT with this one now. After a lull (a year of consolidation), we are all amazed at how quickly things have changed and investors have noticed the opportunity to bag a bargain given the potential that is at hand, and want in. They must be getting a recommendation from somewhere and I would guess it to be Cantor Fitzgerald whose price target earlier in the year was 3.8 pence. It would not surprise me if they upgraded that target price to plus 5 pence. Best of luck to all the newcomers to the good ship Plutus, and let's all have a great weekend.

[zengas] 11/11/2016 15:05

I just looked a little deeper here at what InfraRed Capital Partners have done with GreenFrog.

I've posted where they are at with GreenFrog and an anticipated £350m of total investment. I beleive this will come to market also.

InfraRed also started up "The Renewables Infrastructure Group" (TRIG) which is listed on the LSE almost 3 years - On shore wind and Solar Photovoltaic parks.
It has a generating capacity of 680 MW (not stand-by).

But on a par with revenue and profits and debt to valuation - Turnover for the half year to 30/6/16 was £32.8m (circa £60m full year). Pre Tax £19.2m before tax and loan repayments.

It's long term debt was £492m at 30/6/16 and has a further £134m of draw down financing available. Cash = £6.2m.

Market cap is £890m or £400m over and above it's long term debt on circa £60m annual revenue.

Going back to my above post on growth for PPG and a potential 27p target - that implies a future m/cap of just £180m against my thoughts on PPG doing a hoped for £50m of future full year revenue as our rollout continues and now the added bonus via the LOI for 100MW of gas powered plants.

[madmonkflin] 11/11/2016 14:56

could be a mail on sunday candidate....

[zengas] 11/11/2016 12:27

As a private company Green Frog Power have been backed by InfraRed Capital Partners.

“ Selecting opportunities with high potential and applying our expertise and disciplined management to nurture and develop value – this is how we have consistently delivered compelling performance for over 25 years.”

About Us

We operate worldwide from offices in London, Hong Kong, New York, Paris, Sydney and Seoul. With c.120 professionals we manage more than US$9bn of equity capital in multiple private and listed funds, primarily for institutional investors across the globe.

To date, we have launched 15 funds including two companies listed on the London Stock Exchange: HICL Infrastructure Company Limited and The Renewables Infrastructure Group. We have realised six of these, demonstrating our ability to create real value for our stakeholders.

We create real value not only for our investors, but also for our partners and especially for the users of our assets and the surrounding communities which benefit from new or refurbished buildings or infrastructure. We fully incorporate the principles of responsible investment in our investment decisions and asset management activities.

Our track record speaks for itself. As a result of our reputation for trust, transparency and integrity, leading industry players are keen to work with us and talented, aspiring professionals, join us.



GreenFrog case study -

Project Capital Cost £250m - £350m

[bishopawn] 11/11/2016 12:08

I very much agree that consolidation in the sector and takeovers WILL happen, Zengas. It is just a matter of WHEN and HOW MUCH "they" have to pay for the privilege. The work Plutus has done to establish sites via landowners like London and Devonshire Trust and Associated British Ports and the building up of a potentially very lucrative pipeline of generation sites with planning permissions on the cusp of being granted and those with planning permission already being built, a predator could swoop at any time because Plutus offers such an attractive target with a ready made set-up of sites and finance, saving the predator a great deal of "heavy lifting".

So a Red Hot share price is going to be the order of the day and if there is an exit strategy it will be multiples of what it is now at a huge premium.

So, whilst keeping an eye on internal developments of sites coming on stream and growing income, we have to have an expectation of ambitious corporate activity or A BID.

Best of luck.

But really the phase of mere luck is over now. This is as safe as houses only much more exciting.

[zengas] 11/11/2016 11:35

bishopawn

As with the gas powered generation announcement that came as an additional line of business development, there's a lot going on behind the scenes imo.

With GreenFrog (a specialist energy provider) developing gas powered generation with £150m worth of new gas plants nationwide in 2016-17 they had no problem accessing funding.

GreenFrogs Wallingford Oxon plant is 12 MW and is their 3rd gas plant. They have 6 more gas sites under construction which will be a total of 9.
They plan to churn out 1,000 MW of gas powered generation plants over the next 3 years which is a serious amount of funding requirement which in total might represent 50 x 20MW plants ?

They are paying down a £58m loan so must have accessed roughly a further £150m in funding of late if the gas powered spend as they say is £150m over 2016-17 alone.

PPG have said they will get undilutive funding for 5 x 20MW gas powered plants.
We say nothing about seeking sites for planning. Instead it says 5 20MW gas powered sites will be constructed under the LOI.

GreenFrog revenues were £16.1m with £4.24m net profit after tax and also after their yearly loan repayment of £5m - on 214 MW power generation.

They are also increasing their diesel generation plants and with 1000MW of gas powered generation planned, their revenues could extrapolate/grow to over £100m with £25m net profit after tax and after financing repayments.

Our 'current' pipeline between diesel and gas is 800 MW.
Even on a 45% and 70% shared basis plus our separate management fees, we could do £50m of future revenues and £12.5m net profit after tax and after financing charges. That would give a hefty dividend payment as well as a p/e of circa 15 which could give a target of 27p. So as with 2p+ being achieved, 4-6-10p targets should follow as (and if) the growth programme continues to be delivered imo.

As I see it the gains and value is yet to come over the next 12-18 months and I see the potential for further sites to be added as is the case with Green Frog. What's to stop PPG at just 5 x 20MW gas powered sites ie 5% when the market is for 2-3 GW and Green Frog aiming for 30-50% of it. A possibility also that sector consolidation/take-overs could happen.

[gspanner] 11/11/2016 11:26

Thing is now blue sky above and who would sell when this has to be worth £25 mil just now... Probably more when more sales start to come through.

[bishopawn] 11/11/2016 10:32

The link up that we have with Reliance Energy Ltd, that happens to have the same address in Henley as Earthworm which specialises in Solar Power development (hardly just a co-incidence), could be Mega if Plutus is going to be also at those solar power sites and using the same connection to the Grid. I imagine that Plutus has already given potential Institutional Investors some indication of eye-watering profit forecasts and they have been/are in the market now for shares at this early stage of development. The Reliance link-up deals will have Plutus at 70% stake as compared to the Rockpool sites where it has 45% stakes.

[nw99] 11/11/2016 10:20

Cheers will do

[nw99] 11/11/2016 09:27

Hope you all got into IOG when I mentioned it earlier

[nw99] 11/11/2016 08:53

Could be tipped it's IC day anyone have a copy ?

[susiebe] 11/11/2016 08:42

Think I should change my prediction to 3p+by Christmas!Company tipped?Not surprised to see a serious rerate here

[brad44] 11/11/2016 08:40

THAR SHE BLOWS!! 2P GONE, HOW FAR WILL WE GO TODAY?

[nw99] 11/11/2016 08:27

IOG is interesting up again this morning , shares magazine tipped it with 664% upside

[montynj] 11/11/2016 08:22

Very bullish technically on the chart for the stock as yesterday we had a new closing hi and today already we are gathering more upward momentum so we are in blue skies.

[zengas] 10/11/2016 11:38

Also from Green Frog Power - (and this is what we are also going into as announced by PPG last month for 100MW - ie gas powered generation of which an estimated 2-3 Gigawatt will be required).

"Our first gas-powered balancing plant was built autumn 2015, in just three months. It has new software and new engineering –the blueprint for the next generation of balancing plant operated by Green Frog.

In 2016-17 we will build £150 million worth of new gas plant nationwide. These new natural gas plants can start and be online in 30 seconds – currently unique in the global market. Just as importantly, they can be started and stopped repeatedly without an impact on the equipment. No other type of power system can get close to this technical feat. Pumped-storage hydroelectric plant are just as responsive as ours but they have to recharge by pumping the water back up hill overnight using carbon intensive power.The government estimates that 2-3GW of fast-responding flexible gas plant will be required for the UK power system during the next two decades."



AND

" Green Frog commission third CM power plant in Oxfordshire

Green Frog have successfully commissioned its third gas fired power plant in only two months.

The site located at Lester Way in Wallingford Oxon is a12MW site built in response to the Governments recently developed electricity Capacity Market. It is capable eof powering 12,000 homes and will contribute to solving the current capacity crisis in the UK. The plant will be operated by Green Frog Genovate and the power will be managed by Green Frog Trading.

Managing Director Mark Jones said “We are delighted to be commissioning this our third plant. We have six more sites under construction and have a delivery plan for 1000MW over the next three years. With our in house capabilities to find land, develop the power plants, connect to the gas and electricity grids and then maintain the asset and trade all of our own power we are able to manage the whole process from start to finish in the most efficient manner possible.”



Imo at PPG, we should focus on and look beyond the immediate target of 200MW and the recent announcement for collaboration on 100MW of gas powered generation. We have a total pipeline of a combined 800 MW at the moment. What if in the next 6-12 months we announce plans for double triple or 10 times the gas generation capacity alone in line with what Green Frog are doing ?.

With patience this could be a very big company in the making or indeed takeover target.

[zengas] 10/11/2016 09:10

An up to date indication of revenue/profit relative to sites/MW capacity.

This is what Green Frog Power Ltd managed to do for year end 31st March 2015. Next accounts won't be out until December 2016.

It's borrowings are £58.74m at 31/3/2015. It is repaying circa £5m per year loan financing and after this annual repayment is showing a net profit after tax of £4.24m. It's a privately owned company so not a listed vehicle.

"The Group provides STOR services to National Grid comprising 214 MW from 12 sites across England and Wales. This is the groups second full year of trading."

(Previous year accounts to 31/3/14 in brackets)

Revenue £16.1m. (£12.167m).
Cost of sales £4.255m. (£1.443m)

Gross Profit £11.88m. (£10.72m).
Admin £1.64m. (£3.67m).

Operating Profit £10.24m (£7.04m).

Loans and Interest payments £4.94m (£5.065m).

Profit before tax £5.297m (£1.982m).

Tax £1.055m (£600k)

Net Profit for the financial year £4.24m (£1.382m).

Dividend paid £1.227m.

Relative to the above, PPGs first year target is a similar 214 MW of power generation. Given the mix/ownership of sites I see a target of a minimum 6p. (I'm already holding 15 months).

We will eventually own a much greater percentage of the sites and have a pipeline of 700 MW plus 100 MW of gas powered generation being contemplated - some total 4 times greater than what Green Frog did in their last accounts.

15-20p is a patient hold target as momentum builds for PPG.


Accounts link -

[nw99] 10/11/2016 08:46

Our time has come rock and roll PPG