Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Phoenix Global. LSE:PGM London Ordinary Share VGG7060R1055 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 4.80p 0 07:49:40
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
4.60p 5.00p 4.80p 4.80p 4.80p
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Industrial Metals - - - - 11.05

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Date Time Title Posts
21/3/201808:28PGM - Phoenix Global Mining Ltd229
28/2/201223:45The Coming Major PALLADIUM Bull Market of 2008-2021216
26/6/200813:10The Platinum Group Metals Thread176

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Phoenix Global. Daily Update: Phoenix Global. is listed in the Industrial Metals sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PGM. The last closing price for Phoenix Global. was 4.80p.
Phoenix Global. has a 4 week average price of 4.65p and a 12 week average price of 4.05p.
The 1 year high share price is 5.20p while the 1 year low share price is currently 2.75p.
There are currently 230,286,473 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 566,715 shares. The market capitalisation of Phoenix Global. is £11,053,750.70.
zaphod99: Following the recent acquisitions I had a few questions and was also keen to find out more about the proposed roadshows in US that were mentioned in a recent podcast. Richard Wilkins, whom I’d met previously, invited me to join him and Marcus Edwards-Jones for lunch since they were coming into the City anyway to meet one of the brokers near to where I work. It was very reassuring to hear that everything is going well at the Empire mine and there is genuine excitement over the cobalt and Gordon Lake prospects neither of which appear to have been reflected in the share price. Regarding the US roadshows, it looks like plans may be afoot for a listing in North America with TSX (Toronto) being the most obvious choice. The feeling is, that if Phoenix are also listed over there the market cap would be considerably higher than it is now plus it would give Phoenix much more exposure and generate more interest from institutional and private investors. There aren’t many companies similar to Phoenix in terms of size and location listed on AIM but there are on TSX and in comparison to a peer group of TSX-listed companies PGM would look very undervalued at the current market cap. US brokers tend not to offer access to AIM stocks so a TSX listing makes a lot of sense given that all of the operations are in North America and there is known to be a lot of local interest in the areas surrounding the various projects. Interestingly, ExGen already have a listing on TSX and as a result of the recent Gordon Lake deal, one of the ExGen directors has been appointed to the board of Phoenix and our CEO, Dennis Thomas is already on the board of ExGen. Given the close association between the 2 companies, it begs the obvious question, could Phoenix and ExGen amalgamate in some way and in doing so, PGM gains a listing in North America, thus raising its profile and creating the opportunity for US and Canadian investors to get involved? It will be interesting to see what develops on that front. It was really good to meet Richard and Marcus and hear first-hand how things are going. They made it clear that they’re keen to engage fully with shareholders so I suggested that they might want to consider holding informal lunch meetings like this with small groups of shareholders every few months. They’re both keen on the idea so if anyone is interested in coming along I’d be happy to organise it and find a suitable date for the first one which would probably be in late April or May. Richard mentioned that he may be able to arrange a suitable venue in the St James’s area of London. If interested, let me know here or by sending me a private message.
zaphod99: Broker update available on VOX 09:1507 Mar Phoenix Global Mining* (PGM LN) 4.75p, Mkt cap 10.9m – Rebuilding Empire – a new start Valuation: Base Case – US$37.6m, 11.6p/s *SP Angel acts as Nomad and broker Key Points The current share price stands at only approximately 40% of our base case valuation suggesting scope for significant share price appreciation as the company becomes more widely recognised. Phoenix Global Mining’s flagship project is the re-opening of the historic Empire mine in Custer County, Idaho to produce copper cathode from heap leaching and SX-EW treatment of near surface oxide ores. The Empire Mine project benefits from a substantial archive of historic geological, drilling, mining and production data The company has secured licences in the Idaho Cobalt Belt which is attracting considerable exploration interest from a number of Canadian and Australian juniors. The recent option over the Gordon Lake gold properties in Canada’s Northwest Territories provides exposure to promising exploration areas in close proximity to a number of historic, multi-million ounce gold mines. Our Base Case valuation is US$37.6m (11.6p/s) see page 3 for valuation scenarios. Summary The historic Empire mine in Idaho produced from the early 1900s to the late 1930s. Phoenix Global Mining is working to restart the mine, initially producing copper cathode from oxide ores using SX-EW technology while it establishes the full potential of underlying primary sulphide mineralisation. Valuation Our assessment ascribes the majority of the company’s current value to its 80% interest in the Empire mine oxide project which we have assessed on the basis of our estimated NPV of future production using our long-term copper price forecast of US$8,500/tonne. At this stage we have not ascribed a value to the underlying sulphide potential of the Empire mine or to the recently acquired 80% interest in the Gordon Lake gold property in Canada. Our estimate of the value of the cobalt exploration in Idaho rests on the value of a recent transaction disclosed by the purchaser. In summary, our valuation is shown in the table below: Table 1 Valuation Summary Valuation Summary Lower Case Base Case Upper Case US$m p/sh US$m p/sh US$m p/sh Empire Mine Oxides 17.6 5.5 35.3 10.9 52.9 16.4 Empire Mine Sulphides Nil at this stage Idaho Cobalt Exploration Nil 2.3 0.7 5.0 1.5 Nil at this stage Total 17.6 5.5 37.6 11.6 57.9 17.9 Source: share price Angel The Empire Mine Oxide Project Our valuation of the Empire mine (100% basis) is based on our assessment of the NPV(7.5%) of the current plan to mine oxide copper ore in the AP Pit area which aims to produce around 7,000 tpa of copper from the mining and treating of 2mtpa of ore from the currently defined resources over a period of approximately 9.7 years. As the project evaluation progresses we expect the detailed mine plan to crystallise in terms of the production and grade profile, as well as operating and capital costs. Our assessment is based on share price Angel’s copper price forecast of US$8,250 (US$3.74/lb) in 2019 and a long term price of US$8,500/t (US$3.86/lb) thereafter. These compare with a current price of approximately US$7,100/t and a 2017 average price of approximately US$7,250/t. Table 2 Valuation Assumptions Empire Mine Valuation Assumptions Per Year Total Economic Assumptions Copper Price US$/t 8,500 US Federal Tax Rate 21.0% Idaho State Tax Rate 7.4% Royalty Rate (due to a previous owner, Exgen) 2.5% Resource Assumptions Tonnes (MI&I) 19,365,000 Copper Grade 0.52% Operating Assumptions Mining Rate (ore tonnes) 2.0mtpa 19.365mt Mining Rate (waste tonnes) 2.7mtpa 27.000mt Copper Grade 0.52% Copper Recovery 70% Copper Production (tonnes) 6,700 69,988 Life of Mine (years) 9.7 Cost Assumptions Pre-Production Capital US$41m Sustaining Capital 2.5% of EBITDA Mining Cost US$/t moved US$2.00 Treatment Cost US$/t treated US$6.00 G&A Cost US$/t treated US$1.50 ? We have discounted the future cash flows of the Empire mine at 7.5% based on our calculation that at current interest and tax rates the fundamental weighted average cost of capital for a 50:50 debt:equity model is 7.6%. We observe that this estimate is broadly consistent with a January 2018 estimate published by New York University’s Stern Business School that the weighted average cost of capital of the US Metals and Mining sector was 7.37%. Based on these assumptions, we estimate the net present value, post financing, of the Empire Mine oxide project, discounted a7.5%, at US$110m. We estimate that the project generates an IRR of 53% and a payback of 1.8 years. We comment that, at the current copper price of approximately US$7,100/t, the NPV7.5% is US$70m, the IRR is 38% and the payback increases to 2.3 years We note that the project is particularly geared to fluctuations in the copper price with a 10% variation in the base case copper price representing a 23% change in the NPV7.5%. By contrast a similar 10% change in the estimated operating costs translates to a 5% change in NPV7.5% and a 10% alteration in the pre-production capital cost assumption is reflected in a 3% change to NPV7.5%. These sensitivities are shown graphically in Figure 5 and the effect of different flat copper price assumptions are illustrated in tabular form as Table 3. Table 3 Empire NPV- Sensitivity to copper price (Source: share price Angel) Empire Mine NPV Sensitivity to Copper Price Copper Price US$/t NPV7.5% US$m IRR Payback (years) 7,000 US$66.8m 37% 2.4 7,500 US$81.7m 43% 2.1 8,000 US$96.4m 48% 1.9 8,500 US$111.2m 54% 1.7 As the Empire mine oxide project is not yet in production, we have examined the discount to the assessed after tax NPV which the market ascribes to a number of other, largely North American, precious and base-metals development projects. This suggests that the market typically pays between less than 10% and around parity with the after tax NPV. In our view the range, in part, reflects how close the projects are to production. The results of this analysis are summarized in the following table. Table 4 Market discount to NPV of development projects (Source: share price Angel) Typical Market Discounts to Project NPV of Development Projects Company MV U$m Project NPV U$m IRR Payback MV/NPV CKG CN 109.4 Metates 737 7.7% 10.1 0.15 CNL CN 579.4 Burtica 860 31.2% 2.3 0.67 MIN CN 211.2 Gunnison 808 40.2% 4.6 0.26 IDM CN 30.0 Red Mtn 83 32.0% 1.9 0.36 LMG CN 1.3 Pine Grove 23 23.0% 2.7 0.06 MAX CN 139.0 Stibnite 832 19.3% 3.4 0.17 NEE CN 73.6 Moss Gold 93 52.5% 2.2 0.79 SBB CN 367.6 Black River 381 24.2% 2.9 0.97 VIT CN 172.3 Eagle Gold 508 29.5% 2.8 0.34 Tot/Avg 1,683.8 4,325 0.39 In our view, it is appropriate therefore to apply a factor of 20% of calculated NPV for the lower case valuation of the Empire mine oxides and 60% of NPV for the upper case. Applying these factors values the project in the range of US$20.2m to US$60.7m with a base case of US$40.5m. Phoenix Global Mining’s 80% share of the Empire copper oxide project is, therefore worth in the range U$S17.6m to US$52.9m with a base case value of US$35.3m.
snowyflake: zaphod - I agree with you regarding Ryan McDermott. Local yes and with a lot of experience. Also it is a vote of confidence in the assets that he added to his holding this past week. Good to see that he has slightly more shares than my holding! Please let be summarise my thoughts. 1. Management. My analysis is that the board have the necessary experience, ability and honour in their dealings to make a success of the underlying assets. I have not researched the history thoroughly, but I have sympathy with Richard Wilkins, the PGM FCO and Roger Turner,PGM operations over the way in which they appear to have been treated when running Oxus, having been successful with Oxus Gold. I also have sympathy for Oxus shareholders like you who have also suffered. I hope that it works out but as with many other situations, authorities often do not assist. That brings me to 2. Jurisdiction. The PGM assets are in a good jurisdiction e.g. Idaho USA. They are not in Africa where I have had success with a sands company (although it was acquired at an undervalue)but lost with two other companies where the assets are in African countries I tend to avoid Eastern Europe. 3. PGM does not appear to be a lifestyle company for the directors. 4. Assets. The underlying assets look sound. There is plenty of work to be done but that work is achievable. The assets are helped by the fact that the historical copper assets are patented and as I understand the position do not need permits in order to explore and produce from them; I may need to be corrected I do not think that applies to the add ons nor the cobalt tenements. I and another investor are concerned about the physical space for the leach procedure. 5. Registered jurisdiction of PGM. This I am afraid is a downside for me. I prefer the companies in which I am invested to have their registered office in England and Wales. The laws of the BVI are different to those of England and Wales. 6. Future capex and financing. I appreciate that it is early days but this is an area where I am not as sanguine as you. Imo one cannot just sit back and hope that gradual news flow will prepare the company for a rising share price. I am invested in another company where I first bought at 5 pence and the price exceeded 25 pence at a point last week. It has similar attributes to my criteria in 1-5 above save that the RO is in England not in the BVI. That company had a placing in December 2016 at 7 pence in which I was fortunate enough to partake to a small extent. An institution came on board at that point. There was a share transaction in June 2017 resulting in another institution coming on board at a higher share price and so on. I have helped see off an analyst who shorted the stock (imo he lost out) and feel very much at ease with the board and a few other holders. All this and the company does not have a DFS yet!! In my view PGM needs promoting; it needs good communication with loyal shareholders. It is insufficient to sit back and hope that those holders remain holders; after all there has been what appears to have been a flood of sales of stock acquired at the IPO in July. It is quite possible that many at that time bought with a view to flipping the stock but any joy has been limited. The view of the chairman in the Vox interview with Justin Waite that the company intends to have a roadshow(s) in the USA is in my view naive; some might even think it is a smokescreen for lack of involvement with its UK shareholders. After all I doubt that the board is intending to list the copany on Nasdaq or the equivalent!!
snowyflake: Zaphod - I have noted this before but President Trump has stated that he wishes USA mines to succeed in order to diminish imports of metals and minerals. That fits in with his reductions in corporation tax since the net result should be that US companies which had "exported" their jurisdiction to countries which had a lower rate of corporation tax start to repatriate their business to the US jurisdiction. Some would call that protectionism - it certainly makes common sense whether it is or it is not. Promotion of US mines should therefore by extension help Empire and thus PGM. Part of the reason for the muted share price is the lack of communication with private shareholders who have an enormous amount to contribute if the board are fortunate enough to have a supportive shareholder base. It takes time to build that support. It does not take long to lose that support. A look at the QCA note by solicitors Harbottle and Lewis gives good guidelines to the directors of smaller quoted companies and I highlight understanding the needs and objectives of shareholders. Further, promotion of the company and its assets has been hitherto poor.
zaphod99: Interesting podcast.3 points of note:If I'm reading it correctly, the recent deeper drilling was to identify the structure at the sulphide level rather than to ascertain the expected grades.The recent reduction in US corporation tax from 35% to 21% could be worth around $50m over the 10 year life of the mine which is equivalent to more than 3 times the current market cap!They seem keen to give investors in the US the opportunity to get involved. Will be interesting to see what develops on that front, especially given the somewhat muted share price reaction after all the recent good news.
moreminer: Well spotted Zaphod99, and indeed good news so it seems. To make reading easier, see text of article following; Phoenix Global Mining – Proposed new US Tax Regime and revised copper price forecasts boost valuation of the Empire Mine Phoenix Global Mining Current Price: 5.025p Market Cap (M): £11.5 EV (M): £10.3 Event BHC has increased the NPV of Phoenix Gobal’s proposed Empire SX/EW copper mine in Idaho to US$56.3M from US$36.3M. Following the release of the details for the new company tax regime in the USA, BHC has re-run its model for Phoenix Global using a 28% tax rate. Historically we had used a 42% tax rate, comprising a 35% Federal Tax and a 7% Idaho State Tax. The revised 28% tax rate comprises the proposed 21% Federal Tax and the 7% Idaho State Tax. Also, we have revised our longer term copper prices to $3.08/lb from $2.96/lb at the time of initiation on 8th August 2017. All NPV calculations are based on Phoenix Global owning 80% of the Empire Copper Project. Comment Copper Price Since our original Initiation Report the model had been revised twice reflecting the increase in copper prices on both occasions. These revisions correspond to our quarterly revision of the copper price forecasts, which are based on Bloomberg consensus figures. The first revision raised the NPV (8%) from US$36.3M to US$39.3M and was made in early October 2017. Now that the new quarter has commenced (January 2018), the forecasts have again been revised and this has pushed the NPV up to US$43.2M based on the updated copper price forecast over the duration of mining which is US$3.08/lb compared with US$2.96/lb in the initiation report. These changes impact the early stages of mining and therefore impact the NPV calculation significantly and reflect the current spot copper price of US$3.23/lb. Taxation We have now applied the new proposed US Tax Rates to the model. As discussed in the original initiation report, the valuation is extremely sensitive to the tax rate. Using a combined Federal and State Tax rate of 28%, the NPV increases to US$53.6M. Valuation At the time of the Initiation Report, we stated that “the valuation represented a Phoenix Global Mining share price of US$0.16 or 12p based on the 80% ownership of the copper SX/EW project alone. Under the revised assumptions these values are now US$0.23 and 17.3p. When the Internal rate of return (“IRR”) was calculated for 100% of the mine in the Initiation Report it was 29%. The marginally higher copper prices and significantly lower tax rates have raised this figure to 45%.
davr0s: Bizarre share price movement looking at today's trades
sos100: if the share prices runs to maybe 10p+ on the build up to the pea they could raise additional amounts to drill more of the deeper sulphides now rather than waiting until they start production(depending on the initial results in Dec) Just look at what's happened to the ARS share price on additional discoveries..
zaphod99: They've been busy! Hopefully this will be the first of many positive updates over the next few months. hTTp://
le couteau tombant: I don't completely agree with this, but we must look at both angles, alot of people do not seem to have grasped Palladium Dominance of Petroleum/Gasoline Autocatalysts and Platinum Dominance of Diesel Autocatalysts. Just because I am a Palladium Bull, does not Mean that I am a Platinum Bear at All! PLATINUM GROUP METALS PGM PRICE RELATIONSHIPS How far can palladium substitute for platinum With the big and rapid increase in platinum prices over the past month, an analyst's thoughts turn to substitution, and here some of the likelihoods of increased palladium for platinum substitution in the catalyst and jewellery sectors are examined. Author: Rhona O'Connell Posted: Wednesday , 13 Feb 2008 LONDON - After the dramatic spikes in the precious metals sector in 1979 and 1980, it took six years for gold jewellery demand to return to 1978 levels, and silver took considerably longer, with industrial demand (including jewellery) not regaining 1978 levels until 1990, a full decade after the price hike that carried gold to $850 and silver to $50. What is thus the prognosis for platinum this time around? The frenetic activity in the platinum market with prices continuing to register new records means that, despite the fact that palladium is being pulled along in platinum's wake; the price differential between the two has now exceeded $1,500. Put another way, platinum is now almost 4.5 times as expensive as palladium and the word "substitution" is on many lips. The obvious areas for substitution are the jewellery sector, and emission control catalysts. Both of these sectors have been looking at the interplay between the two metals for a number of years and in the automotive sector in particular engineers are constantly looking for ways to maximise catalyst efficiency while minimising costs. Back in 2000 and 2001 palladium rocketed to more than $1,000 an ounce when automotive manufacturers in North America were panicking over a potential shortage of metal. Palladium reached a maximum premium over platinum of $475 on 26th January. Over the preceding year platinum prices rose by 34% while those of palladium by 124%. The result was renewed efforts to shift back towards platinum in the automotive sector, although the pattern was different with respect to jewellery, where outright prices were playing more of a role than the proportional difference between the two. GFMS Ltd reports that industrial demand for palladium in 2000 was 9.6 million ounces (298 tonnes), with emission control catalysts accounting for 6.0 million ounces or 63% of total. Note that GFMS records "consumption" whereas the Johnson Matthey figures refer to sales into the industry and so the parameters are slightly different, with inventory shifts marking the major difference between the two sets of figures. Palladium demand since then has dropped to approximately eight million ounces per annum, with offtake in emission control catalysts falling to 4.1 million ounces in 2005 before starting to increase once more. The drop in palladium usage in emission control catalysts between 2000 and 2005 was thus 31% or an annual average of almost 8% per annum. This is despite the fact that the number of vehicles fitted with emission control catalysts increased by 14% overall, or an average of 2.6% per annum over the period. Platinum demand in emission control catalyst over the same period rose from 2.2 million ounces to almost four million ounces and has continued to expand since. This is not only a function of platinum re-substituting in part for palladium, but also due to the fact that diesel vehicles have been taking an increasing proportion of the global fleet and, until recently, emission control for diesel-powered vehicles was the exclusive domain of platinum. In 2000, diesel accounted for only 18% of global production of light vehicles, and for 19% of catalyst-bearing vehicles. By 2007, diesel accounted for 24% of total and 25% of catalyst-bearing vehicles. The geographic split of this is also interesting with Europe well and truly in the vanguard with respect to diesel vehicles. In 2000, diesel accounted for 37% of light vehicle production, but in 2007 it absorbed approximately 51% of total. The headway in the gasoline sector in China means that diesel share has actually dropped over the period, from 21% to 16%. In Japan the share is less than 10% while in North America it is less than 5% - although this us up from less than 2% in 2000. The balance between palladium and platinum usage in diesel is changing, with advances in fuel technology now meaning that palladium can substitute for platinum (up to about 25% of total) in catalysts for diesel-powered engines, and the recent relative price performance for the two metals is virtually guaranteed to ensure that this work will continue. Furthermore the massive increases in gasoline prices has, as well as resulting in consumers looking in part, for smaller vehicles than hitherto when changing their cars, meant that diesel is now taking more of a foothold in north America than previously and the 5% figure noted above can be expected to increase. All of this points to a resurgence in palladium demand at the expense of platinum. Although we have noted that this trend is already underway, however, it is important not to get too carried away by the speed with which this substitution will have an impact on the market. New designs for emission control catalysts frequently require new engine calibration and certification and this can take months. There was already likely to be a notable increase in palladium usage in diesel emission control catalysts; this is likely to be extended in 2009 as a result of price shifts. The jewellery sector is more rapidly responsive to price exchanges although as noted above this tends to be more a function of outright prices rather than relative performance. Absolute high prices across the precious metals spectrum are likely to impinge on jewellery demand in all metals this year, and the platinum price romping towards $2,000 is likely to have a substantial effect on platinum jewellery demand. Palladium is likely to take an increased market share at platinum's expense, but the market itself is likely to be smaller as a result of consumer resistance. The one area that is likely to remain resilient is the market for wedding bands, especially in Asia. Platinum jewellery demand reached a peak in 2002, driven by burgeoning interest in China and reaching almost three million ounces or 39% of total industrial demand of 2.8 million ounces. Palladium demand in the jewellery sector stood at that point at 337,000 ounces. Platinum demand has tapered off since, dropping below 1.8 million ounces while palladium offtake has increased towards one million ounces. Platinum jewellery usage has therefore declined by roughly one million ounces per annum while that of palladium has increased by more than 600,000 ounces. Palladium pieces are typically lighter than those of platinum, so palladium's encroachment in terms of the number of pieces is likely to be higher than these bald tonnage figures would suggest. Global jewellery platinum demand is currently equivalent to roughly 22% of platinum demand and 12% of palladium demand. With South African platinum supplies likely to be restricted by anything up to 300,000 ounces this year, (dependent upon the analysis that one chooses to read) as a result of the power supply problems, then all other things being equal, i.e. if jewellery demand were the only variable in the equation, it would have to contract by almost 20% in 2008 in order to offset the reduction in primary supply of refined metal. Furthermore ETF demand is likely to remain strong. Demand so far this year in the London-based platinum ETF has been 123,000 ounces, taking holdings up by 88% over the past six weeks. This is hardly likely to be sustained throughout the year as a whole, but it already points to sustained tightness in the platinum market. While it is too early yet to quantify the absolute shifts within the platinum and palladium markets this year, we can be reasonably sure that platinum prices will remain high and that jewellery demand will suffer. The cautionary note, of course, is that when the market rids itself of this tightness then there is scope for plenty of profit taking and this, on the back of a weakened jewellery market, is likely to lead to falls every bit as rapid as their recent rise.
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