Patsystems Share Discussion Threads

[eacn] 20/2/2008 15:24

turtle head,

I should start by saying that I invest on the basis of fundamentals but use charts to time my investments. I am not therefore a chartist, just a pragmatist.

My chart shows that we have been in a downward trend since news of ION's stakebuilding first broke, but that we are now testing the upper limits of the downward channel.

What that tells me is that a break out may be in the offing, to the upside. Doomsday_Man's chart says much the same (although I can't fathom the basis upon which he deduced the channel and it isn't a log chart so technically of little use for technical analysis).

From a fundamentals perspective the reason for a break-out could well be bid rumours or purchases by those in the know.

Of course the share price may retreat from the upper channel boundary, in which case we are back to business as usual and you can expect the share price to trend down to the bottom of whichever channel you happen to subscribe to.

[turtle head] 20/2/2008 13:45

What do these two charts tell us? I presume these lines mean something to you guys? I am a stupid non-chartist.

From an annual view we are at the top the channel on a decreasing trend and about to drop down and

From a two year view we are at the top of an increasing trend and about to drop down.

So whichever way you look at it we are about to take a drop, the only question is whther the long term trend is up or down?

Please help!

[doomsday_man] 20/2/2008 12:04

I bought in Feb 2006 @13.68p. This is a better looking chart:

[eacn] 20/2/2008 11:39

Coming near to the top of the channel:

a href='http://www.advfn.com' title='Free stock charts & share prices from www.advfn.com'>free stock charts from www.advfn.com

Updated - to include latest chart

[dm1066] 20/2/2008 10:53

Another small tick up again today on minimal volume (unless of course a larger buy order is being filled in the background and the reporting is delayed). As we've stated previously on this BB, I suspect that the overwhelming majority of holders of this share are in no rush to sell and hence even a relatively small amount of purchases can push the share price up.

Also, I believe that Edison Research issued a note yesterday. Haven't seen the full note yet but this is the summary.... "Patsystems is growing at a fast pace and its outlook remains favourable. The 2005 acquisition of Tamesis has proven to be a success and management are using it as a model for future deals. Trading at c.2.1x revenues the shares look fairly priced. Additionally, the presence of unquoted ION Trading on the share register adds an interesting flavour to this stock."

Finally, FWIW, a small part of my position in PTS is via a long spreadbet and the margin has not increased.

[bg23] 20/2/2008 09:59

interesting, or perhaps just a coincedence? still might be worth watching the cfd providers margin changes in future.

as for imminent action, really have no thoughts. although i am surprised by the general lack of business in the stock since their results.

i see the stock was mentioned in investors chronicle last week. listed as good value, reiterated outlook. implied ion were likely to act but also that the company was looking in its own right to be part of the likely consolidation in the industry.

[eacn] 19/2/2008 14:53

bg23,

I have had a feeling for several days now that we are on the brink of corporate action. The dearth of orders in the market, the tic up in the price following the results,...

Yes I have seen such margin increases before: a similar thing happened with Retail Decisions before they were bought.

[bg23] 19/2/2008 10:18

it seems there is some concern around the cfd providers regards short and sharp price movements in this stock. a colleague here has a position via cfd's and has just been told margin increases to 75% of underlying.

perhaps he's short !!!!

does anyone know of similarly large margin increases being put in place ahead of corporate action?

if so, it might be a useful indicator in the future!!

[bbd2] 18/2/2008 17:46

Additional Listing




RNS Number:2492O
Patsystems PLC
18 February 2008


Patsystems plc (the "Company")

Additional Listing

Application has today been made for the admission of 37,500 shares of 1p each in
the Company (the 'New Ordinary Shares' or the 'Shares') to trading on the AIM
market of the London Stock Exchange ('Admission').

The Shares have been issued following the exercise of an option by employees
under the Patsystems 2003 Enterprise Management Incentive Share Option Scheme.

The New Ordinary Shares have been issued and allotted as fully paid up and rank
pari passu in all respects with the existing issued ordinary share capital of
the Company.

It is expected that Admission will become effective and that dealings in the New
Ordinary Shares on AIM will commence on 25th February 2008.

END

[groin] 12/2/2008 09:40

bg23,

I totally agree with your comments.
My feeling is that the company has done everything right by shareholders but has been let down by the market.
It has returned excess cash to holders, hit virtually every target it set itself and is now paying a decent dividend. How many high techs can claim that?
Left alone I am sure the company will carry on growing at a very good rate and would become a substantial player in a lucrative sector of the market.
I don't blame ION for seeing a bargain and playing a canny game in snapping up almost a third of the company at what I believe are bargain prices.

The "dead man walking" comment I made earlier has more to do with where I see the price going rather than the company. ION got their stake from large holders and it is they who have let the side down. The target of 34p from share price will probably be the take out price and we are now seeing the management doing their utmost to get it above that level. I hope they succeed.

[am1234] 12/2/2008 08:49

(from sharecast website)

Patsystems' main business is providing software which enables trading of derivatives. There has been rising demand for its key product, the Pro Mark trading screen, from large brokers. The number of installations is expected to nearly double to 700 in 2008, when profits are expected to grow to £3.8m, putting the shares on a multiple of 13. Bid talk surrounding the group persists. On trading grounds, they seem fairly priced for now says the Independent.

[am1234] 12/2/2008 08:30

full page interview with David Webber in City AM today (freebie paper) - page 18.

[bg23] 12/2/2008 08:25

morning Groin,

i tend to agree with your summary above. thats the trouble with what can generously be called 'small cap'. below the radar everything can be done correctly and the company can grow over time, but without analyst and broker comment there is every chance that the minnow is not allowed to grow as they will be picked up by the bottom fishers.

thats capitalism and always will be that way. don't ever let anyone tell you markets are efficient.

however, the company does appear to have been proceeding in the right direction. now its up to the manageemnt to squeeze as much out of the aggressor as the can if ION do decide to proceed.

[groin] 12/2/2008 07:54

After such a cracking performance, excellent set of figures, increasing dividend, broker buy note and Director buying I would normally expect the price to be well on its way by now.
Pats have done everything right but have the feel of a dead man walking.
The market isn't stupid and knows ION will buy them. They are also not under any illusion on how much of a premium they will be willing to pay.
Their stake stops anyone else bidding and it is only a matter of when and not if.
It was interesting to note that Fidessa also reported yesterday. Obviously they are a giant in comparison but the reaction by the market to similar jumps in revenue and prospects was stark.
It is a great shame but the total lack of support from the City will mean ION get a great business on the cheap.

[bugs bunny] 11/2/2008 15:23

Director/PDMR Shareholding

RNS Number:7440N
Patsystems PLC
11 February 2008


Patsystems plc ("Patsystems" or "the Company")

Directors' Share Dealings

Patsystems was advised on 11 February 2008 that David Webber, CEO, had acquired
200,000 ordinary shares of 1p each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares") on Monday
11 February 2008 at 26 pence each.

Mr Webber now has a beneficial interest in 800,000 Ordinary Shares representing
approximately 0.45 per cent. of the entire issued ordinary share capital of
Patsystems.

Patsystems was also advised on 11 February 2008 that Stewart Millman,
Non-Executive Chairman, had sold 200,000 ordinary shares of 1p each in the
Company ("Ordinary Shares") on Monday 11 February 2008 at 26 pence each.

Mr Millman now has a beneficial interest in 992,282 Ordinary Shares representing
approximately 0.56 per cent. of the entire issued ordinary share capital of
Patsystems

[dm1066] 11/2/2008 14:12

David Webber gave a brief but illuminating interview to Thomson Financial News this morning - see the following link (you have to subscribe to the site to view the interview but it's free)......



A few interestig quotes in there, particularly concerning Patsystems desire to acquire other small technology firms, and the fact that Richard Last, the next chariman, has plenty of M&A experience.

Interesting quote re ION's stakebuilding too..... "Webber said: 'It's not as if we're looking to be taken over. However, the option is there."

Looks as though there will be interesting times ahead one way or another, but it doesn't give the impression of a company about to roll over and be taken out on the cheap. (no investment advice intended, obviously :) )

[turtle head] 11/2/2008 13:38

I "may" have been a bit harsh.

Operating expenses are the same as they were in 2002 but now delivering more than double the revenues.

It has been 2 years since they reported an "exceptional" item which indicates that the company is being managed a lot more professionally.

Cash generative.

Making real profits not just "normalised" profits.

etc, etc, etc.

[turtle head] 11/2/2008 12:57

On the other side, why would you retire as Chairman just before a takeover when you could get a nice payout post acquision for doing nothing?

So perhaps the management are intending to stick in there for a while against the ION shareholding?

[bugs bunny] 11/2/2008 11:35

"Just Business"......ION collect a nice DIVI to buy some more PTS share's.

[turtle head] 11/2/2008 11:06

Perhaps delibrately bland so that Ion have an easier ride into town than they have already been given? If possible....

[bg23] 11/2/2008 10:59

numbers all look ok to me, broadly in line,although i thought the dividend could have been better.

overall though, i was a little disapointed in the statement. there was no accompanying announcements of new clients and generally just affirmed what we already knew.

i would have thought that they would have been banging the drum a bit more rather than a fairly bland statement. obviously you wouldn't expect them to comment on ION in the statement but by ONLY confirming their outlook for the coming year, they have hardly excited me.

if ION are sitting on the sidelines waiting to pounce, they have no real reason to re-run their numbers and may find a more receptive audience should they decide to move.

[markblackmore] 11/2/2008 10:37

I reckon, when you look at what we've got on the table Pats look in pretty good shape:

1) 37% growth in profit
2) launch of new Global Trading platform and first major customer win with Macquarie Bank
3) ION in the wings

[dvda] 11/2/2008 10:26

But adjusted PBT was £3.0m which is presumably what Seymour Pierce were considering with their forecast of £3.1m. As such they missed both profit and turnover forecasts by c. 3%, so hardly a big deal.

[williebiz] 11/2/2008 07:09

Reasonably strong performance in the face of adverse currency/ markets (RNS).