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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northgte.Inf. | NIS | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 95.25 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.25 | 95.25 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 20/12/2007 16:06 by superglide Late December has seen a rash of takeover news hit the technology sector. Northgate Information Solutions says it is in talks and NSB Retail has agreed a bid from US business software provider Epicor. With technology and telecoms stocks underperforming the market, analysts expect low valuations to attract yet more bidders to the sector.Advertising The software and computer services sector underperformed the FTSE All-Share by around 10 per cent during 2007, according to analysts at Landsbanki, with IT hardware and telecoms services also down for the year. That could have been even worse without standout performances from the sector's leaders, such as Autonomy and Aveva. But even these quality companies are well off their highs, with previous star performer Axon losing 40 per cent of its value in the last three months. The tech sell-off suggests investors are taking a dim view of the prospects for IT spending in 2008, with consumer demand also looking shaky. Nonetheless, trade buyers - and perhaps private equity - are returning. "The market is discounting a doom scenario that companies and corporates just don't share," says Evolution analyst Roger Phillips. "Recent M&A multiples from trade buyers don't leave the software sector looking expensive by any means." He suggests Intec Telecom and Coda could be prime takeover targets in the medium term. Technology companies traditionally have more cash on their balance sheet, leaving them well placed to gain customers or niche solutions by acquisition. But companies that are themselves roll-ups of several acquisitions, such as Sage or Microgen, may be too complex for a buyer to integrate. "Companies that can't prove they're consolidation targets are going to have a very tough time," says Andrew Darley of KBC Peel Hunt. "Those that are unappreciated by the market might consider going private while prices are so low." Dozens of companies trade below the software sector's average forward PE of around 14. "The trick is to find the ones that are not going to warn - because most of them probably are," says Landskbanki analyst Kevin Ashton. But with Northgate in talks, Civica looking cheap and Anite talking up the prospects for selling one or more of its disparate divisions, Mr Ashton adds: "It's deafening the amount of interest we are hearing in public-sector IT." |
Posted at 19/12/2007 19:05 by superglide Promise goes south at NorthgateNIS Published date: Wednesday, December 19, 2007 Northgate Information Solutions (NIS) Interims PTP: £0.52m (£13.9m) Divi: 0.29p (0.24p) Good order wins, a backlog worth £624 million and a 21% hike in the interim dividend suggest the IT services expert has a future rich in promise. But investors remain concerned about the Hemel Hempstead firm's £416.4 million net debt burden and how the company accounts for its research and development expenditure. The shares of Northgate Information Solutions plunged 13% in the two days after the figures were published and hit 59.5p. This is their lowest level since autumn 2004 and is way below the 95p twelve-year high achieved last autumn, before management batted away unsolicited private equity approaches. Northgate's debts soared primarily as a result of June's £251 million Belgian acquisition ARINSO, even if early profit margin expansion suggests the new addition has settled down well. Shares says: High financial leverage remains a worry. AVOID by: Russ Mould NIS Published date: Thursday, July 12, 2007 Northgate Information Solutions (NIS) Finals PTP: £31.9m (£30.6m) Divi: 0.72p (0.6p) Despite a welcome acceleration in organic growth in the second half, doubts continue to linger over how the Hemel Hempstead firm intends to integrate June's £251 million Belgian acquisition ARINSO. A fat order book of £389.8 million, equivalent to 111% of last year's sales, at least offers good visibility and Northgate's robust recurring revenues and strong cash flow attracted private equity bidders in October. These approaches were brushed off, however, and despite the possibility of trade buyers emerging as the IT industry consolidates, the £474.5 million cap's shares remain mired at 81.75p, well below last autumn's 95p 12-month peak. ARINSO operates in 27 countries worldwide and provides SAP-based human resources solutions, which compete with Northgate Information Solutions' own software package in this area. Shares says: Not expensive on a prospective PE of 13 for 2007. by: Russ Mould NIS Published date: Thursday, July 12, 2007 A developer and supplier of human resources and payroll software, NIS has been kept busy with numerous acquisitions in the last few years and has managed to create a powerful position in HR software, with a 30% market share in the UK. Management is building a solid reputation by making logical acquisitions and integrating them smoothly. The latest deal, with Arinso, looks like another key acquisition in the HR area, capable of turning NIS into a global player. Andrew Gibson from Galvan Research and Trading says: 'NIS is in a great position to deliver earnings growth. It has targeted niche areas with good growth potential and its market share should enable it to gain a competitive edge. The recent healthy results and director buying represent good grounds for a further rise in the share price.' BUY Northgate Information Solutions Target 90p Stop loss 77p TIME TARGET: 4 WEEKS |
Posted at 18/12/2007 10:56 by hifkdmer same as last 4 trading days.This will bottom in the next 30 mins and then rise for the remainder of the day. Think its the MM's strategy to free up stock for the larger investors/institutio |
Posted at 13/12/2007 12:16 by simon gordon From the FT's Alphaville blog this morning:NH: got some thoughts on Northgate NH: before we get back to the banks NH: stock had a rollercoaster ride yesterday NH: tumbled in early trading after Numis and Morgan Stanley warned clients that the company, which has loads of debt, could breach its banking covenants NH: stock then rallied sharply, to end the day higher NH: after the company said that analysis was flawed NH: and that it had also had a bid approach PM: they just thought they would slip that in then NH: why not??? NH: anyway, most people thought the stock would open higher this morning NH: after all the press have been talking about a 100p a share bid PM: and? NH: they are down 9.5p at 62p PM: Ahhhh!! NH: that's a fall of 11% PM: Why?? NH: well, first no one believes Northgate will be bid for NH: and that's not surprising NH: The group has received a takeover approach about 15 months ago (we believe the offer was in the mid 90p levels ), NH: but Northgate walked away from it as it felt it didn't fully reflect the underlying value of its NH: various businesses NH: and second Numis has renewed its attack this morning NH: published another really bearish note PM: Saying? NH: that the share price risk is asymmertric - NH: on the downside that is NH: Repeating our view on covenants: Our calculation method of the group's net debt/EBITDA multiple is, and always has been, in line with the approach used by Northgate's banks. NH: We forecast trailing net debt/EBITDA at April 2008 at 4.25x (£440m/£103m). The group's net debt/EBITDA covenant is 4.75x until April 2008, falling to 4.25x at July 2008. NH: Our calculations therefore suggest that any trading weakness in the next year could lead to a covenant breach. NH: What price a bid? The FT suggests that "a private equity group [is] hoping to achieve a price of around 100p per share". We estimate that 100p would be a 1-year forward EV/NOPAT multiple of 18.5x. When bid talks failed a year ago, in much more favourable markets for private equity, the 1-year forward multiple at the then mooted bid price also of around 100p was 18x. NH: A bid at 100p now would therefore be at a higher multiple of future NOPAT than the best available bid 12 months ago. Even at the current 71p share price, we think that the CY08 EV/NOPAT multiple of 15.5x would be a good take-out multiple in current markets. NH: Debt change of control? We don't know whether Northgate's debt facilities contain a change of control clause, although we believe that these are common. If such a clause is in place, then we think that any new owner of Northgate would almost certainly end up paying higher interest rates, and conceivably might not even be able to raise as much debt finance. NH: Asymmetric downside risk: We think that a bid at around 100p is highly unlikely, and even a bid at the current level would be a good price. Given the risk that a bid might well not emerge, we think the share price risks as highly asymmetric on the downside PM: Hmmm - taht is aggressive - and they clearly dont beleive the bid story either NH: Now this note has been penned by Will Wallis and David Toms NH: and Mr Toms has an excellent nose for spotting software companies with problems NH: Torex, he spotted that disaster PM: Ah, did he? NH: he was also bearish on isoft, another disaster NH: in fact some of the most spectualar blow ups in recent years have come from the software sector NH: there is just something about it NH: anyway, the market listens to this guy NH: and if he is worried about debt at Northgate NH: then so should investors PM: given those debts levels it does look like an unlikely bid candidate NH: I agree |
Posted at 13/12/2007 11:11 by grlz tradx - ur a funny guy, but some how I think given how the market reacted yesterday so sharpish your shorts were closed out for you - At least u acknowledged that all your bearish posts were rooted in your desperate need to spook investors - quite why I have no idea as nothing said on a BB makes much difference because this event was led by Numis & MS.The board regardless of Stone will be forced to recommend a decent bid pitched anything over 90 - current market conditions dictate it - I don't rule out Stone counter-bidding as an MBO - GAP hold 13% and have supported his expansion strategy to date without question, they may well support a Stone MBO - Barclays banking involvement is due to Stone and over the last 3 yrs they have throw money at the guy. Northgate's statement yesterday RE its banking would only have been released after consultation with BARC, it's stupid to think otherwise. all imho/DYOR |
Posted at 13/12/2007 10:39 by tsmith2 I am expecting this to finish the day relatively unchanged from yesterday's priceTelegraph article.. Bears got their fingers scorched in Northgate Information Solutions after the software group announced it was a takeover target, writes Yvette Essen. In early trading, the stock tumbled 27pc after Morgan Stanley published a gloomy note on the shares, slashing its target price from 100p to 65p and downgrading from overweight to equal weight following Monday's interim results. It called the stock "too high risk" and said "on our forecasts, the company will be very close to breaching the covenants of its credit facility in 2008-2009". Northgate fell as low as 43¼p as investors rushed to short the stock, recalling that Numis had also warned on Monday that it saw a "pressing need for Northgate to raise cash". Volumes swelled to 52m shares - more than 15 times the usual daily average. However, the shares ended the day up 12¼ at 71½p after Northgate said it had received a bid approach. It is thought a private equity suitor is behind the approach and an offer for the group could be north of 100p a share, valuing the group at over £580m. Northgate, which last year received a number of unsolicited approaches that came to nothing, added that comments about its debt facilities were "inaccurate" and that it was trading "comfortably within its covenants". It said committed facilities amount to £513m and net debt stood at £416m at the end of October. " |
Posted at 13/12/2007 09:58 by hifkdmer Telegraph article..Bears got their fingers scorched in Northgate Information Solutions after the software group announced it was a takeover target, writes Yvette Essen. In early trading, the stock tumbled 27pc after Morgan Stanley published a gloomy note on the shares, slashing its target price from 100p to 65p and downgrading from overweight to equal weight following Monday's interim results. It called the stock "too high risk" and said "on our forecasts, the company will be very close to breaching the covenants of its credit facility in 2008-2009". Northgate fell as low as 43¼p as investors rushed to short the stock, recalling that Numis had also warned on Monday that it saw a "pressing need for Northgate to raise cash". Volumes swelled to 52m shares - more than 15 times the usual daily average. However, the shares ended the day up 12¼ at 71½p after Northgate said it had received a bid approach. It is thought a private equity suitor is behind the approach and an offer for the group could be north of 100p a share, valuing the group at over £580m. Northgate, which last year received a number of unsolicited approaches that came to nothing, added that comments about its debt facilities were "inaccurate" and that it was trading "comfortably within its covenants". It said committed facilities amount to £513m and net debt stood at £416m at the end of October. " |
Posted at 12/12/2007 15:54 by tsmith2 Nimrah - 12 Dec'07 - 15:39 - 5494 of 5501Shares in Northgate IS (NIS) have tanked today and I have had a flood of emails. Apparently a note from Numis suggests that the company may break its banking covenants. I have spoken to those close to Northgate and this is utter cobblers. I would point out that first half cashflow cover was two times and that this is a second half weighted business so full year cashflow cover is likely to be closer to 3 times. Interest rates are falling and Northgate is generating cash so can reduce its debts. So cashflow cover will increase next year. I would expect Northgate to have to formally comment on a note which contains basic errors pretty soon. You can panic as some investors are doing. Go ahead and sell at 45.5p on an April 2008 PE of 7 falling to 6. If you wish to panic go ahead. It is your decision to sell a stock which is grossly undervalued because of a short term panic based on analysis which the company says is inaccurate. You can choose to believe that the team which has transformed Northgate from a near bust tiddler to a FTSE 250 growth stock just cannot add up. That would be your call. Or you can not panic you can note that the shares are very cheap and buy some more. I suggest that you do the latter. The stance is "buy." |
Posted at 12/12/2007 15:39 by nimrah Shares in Northgate IS (NIS) have tanked today and I have had a flood of emails. Apparently a note from Numis suggests that the company may break its banking covenants. I have spoken to those close to Northgate and this is utter cobblers. I would point out that first half cashflow cover was two times and that this is a second half weighted business so full year cashflow cover is likely to be closer to 3 times. Interest rates are falling and Northgate is generating cash so can reduce its debts. So cashflow cover will increase next year. I would expect Northgate to have to formally comment on a note which contains basic errors pretty soon. You can panic as some investors are doing. Go ahead and sell at 45.5p on an April 2008 PE of 7 falling to 6. If you wish to panic go ahead. It is your decision to sell a stock which is grossly undervalued because of a short term panic based on analysis which the company says is inaccurate. You can choose to believe that the team which has transformed Northgate from a near bust tiddler to a FTSE 250 growth stock just cannot add up. That would be your call. Or you can not panic you can note that the shares are very cheap and buy some more. I suggest that you do the latter. The stance is "buy." IS HE TALKING SENSE BOYS |
Posted at 19/10/2007 11:18 by 13matt13 The share price speaks for Stone & his private investors, are some the the investors partially blind, The Beano is a better read than NIS accounts & Stone's vision for NIS. |
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