Roebuck Food Share Discussion Threads

[resourceful] 26/1/2018 14:33

still want to know whats going on

[resourceful] 11/1/2018 13:11

whats going on

[resourceful] 28/9/2017 10:08

have you seen the results
cold store booming
will grow even more with brexit
NZ lamb..where will it go

[drmaccers] 05/5/2017 21:32

No it's not a good plc. Silly to pay the AIM overheads

[resourceful] 19/4/2017 14:31

great to see new posters
thought i was a lone voice
norish should not exist as a listed PLC

[resourceful] 19/4/2017 14:31

great to see new posters
thought i was a lone voice
norish should not exist as a listed PLC

[drmaccers] 13/2/2017 22:11

Never did invest it spoke to management on the phone a few times. They are keen on the diary and think it'll make good cash

[rhomboid] 09/2/2017 11:37

Anyone still invested here? and why are they suddenly Dairy Farming? is it just that Kieran Mahon has a farming background?

[resourceful] 18/3/2016 15:12

was a profit made on the disposal
seems unlikely

[resourceful] 14/12/2015 10:59

what happened at the EGM
Paper says motion approved

[drmaccers] 30/11/2015 16:06

Spoke to new CEO. Interesting times coming

[drmaccers] 18/11/2015 05:43

Interesting to get such a big placement away at that price in these market conditions? Miton hopefully to a big extra pile. I smell a blog post coming

[drmaccers] 17/11/2015 18:32

Having a look :)

[resourceful] 18/8/2015 09:55

intervention good for norish

[resourceful] 29/7/2015 16:31

hello
life out there
who is buying
why

[resourceful] 02/7/2015 16:36

still dormant

[resourceful] 19/6/2015 16:50

I am the only shareholder in the universe

[resourceful] 05/8/2014 16:19

100000 traded

[resourceful] 31/7/2014 09:39

there is life... a deal

[resourceful] 25/7/2014 10:19

is that a spark of interest in the share

[simon gordon] 18/6/2014 14:20

18/6/14:



Gervais Williams: How I'm turning round The Investment Company

....The manager is a long-term fan of AIM stocks, and one company which he has recently added to the trust is chilled warehouse operator Norish. 'There is a heavy emphasis on those companies with strong balance sheets, including plenty of tangible assets, along with growing turnover and profits. We believe that the new holding in Norish is especially attractive on these criteria. It has recently raised new capital to acquire the lease on one of its chilled warehouses from a forced seller, which doesn't just enhance its asset value but also greatly increases its ability to grow its earnings going forward.'

[resourceful] 22/5/2014 09:24

poor mgmt
the only out is a sale
but they have been trying for years

[wexboy] 19/5/2014 05:39

Company: Norish

Prior Post(s): 2012 & 2013

Ticker: NSH:LN

Price: GBP 39.5p

I've been consistently bullish on Norish, and equally scathing of its management for the past two years. This bullish view was rewarded early in 2013, with the share price doubling in the space of 7 months. But bad management almost inevitably wins out, and here we are again...the share price is back trading in the 30-40p range it's mostly occupied for the past 5 years. Clearly I had a rush of blood to the head last year, when I highlighted the stock was potentially a triple. Not an incorrect analysis, necessarily, but that kind of upside presumes management's at least willing to consider unlocking (and/or increasing) the company's intrinsic value. But when you're faced instead with apathetic management, and (it seems) shareholders, that upside may never be realized... Obviously one has to presume a binary perspective & outcome here.

On the one hand, we should simply consider the equity tied up in the business. Each year management inevitably promises things can only get better (due to their hard-working efforts, of course), but nothing ever materializes – savings always seem to end up absorbed by another set-back. The numbers tell the real story, as usual – cold storage revenue's up a pathetic 6.5% in the past 4 years, while profitability's consistently declined vs. a paltry 2009 profit of GBP 0.8 million. [I tell a lie - profitability's stabilized now at GBP (79) K pa in both 2012 & 2013!]. A 1.0 P/B multiple (on equity of GBP 8.3 M) seems more than adequate – in fact, it's damn generous when you consider Norish's negligible returns on equity. But management has again promised a decent return next year (and the 2013 continuing ops profit seems to confirm it), and fortunately equity's mostly composed of land & warehouses which should be fairly valued & readily saleable.

On the other hand, the company's worth far more if the cold storage business was simply liquidated & the commodity (meat) trading business was run (or sold off) as a stand-alone business. Let's simplify the liquidation & assume total PPE of 15.4 M can be sold off (for book value) & used to retire net debt of 7.8 M – that's a realized NAV of 7.6 M. We also need to value the Townview Foods meat business: Unfortunately, 2013 was the year of the horse meat scandal (er, what's wrong with horse meat?!), so revenue fell (say) 35% to 11.4 M (from an estimated 17.5 M in 2012) & the operating margin fell to 3.7% (compared to an historical average of about 6.7%). I think it's fair to presume the most recent figures are distorted, so let's presume an average operating margin of 5.2% – this deserves a 0.45 P/S multiple. In similar fashion we'll apply this multiple to an average revenue figure of 14.5 M.

Now, let's average the two approaches – which seems the only fair way to nail down a valuation here. It also reflects my renewed ambivalence regarding management. When the 2013 interims were published, I was enormously encouraged by the plan to sell the York & Leeds facilities. Surely this was sanity & a first/tentative step towards liquidation... But since then, we've seen two dilutive share issuances (at 40p & 35p) & a purchase of the company's Birmingham site – certainly not the actions of a management team which seems at all interested in protecting & realizing shareholder value. Finally, before we lay out our valuation, we should note the latest 2.2 M placing/open offer is still in process – but it's obviously dilutive, so we'll assume it gets completed & include it in our valuation to be conservative:

((GBP 8.3 M Equity * 1.0 P/B + 7.6 M Cold Storage NAV + 14.5 M Meat Revenue * 0.45 P/S) / 2 + 2.2 M New Equity * 95%) / (11.2 M Old + 6.3 M New) Shares = GBP 76p

Norish remains substantially undervalued. But remember this upside's only an average: If management's really that dreadful, they'll continue to pour good money after bad into cold storage & the superior Townview business is sure to end up caught in its clutches too. On the other hand, the upside may be much higher, if management: a) finally realizes the only value in cold storage is the actual sales value of the underlying property portfolio, and b) focusing all investment on Townview, which I suspect is capable of delivering on a multi-year high growth revenue strategy. An aggressive share buyback programme wouldn't bloody hurt either..!

Price Target: GBP 76p

Upside/(Downside): 93%

[resourceful] 17/4/2014 14:50

nowe we know why
push the price to get a placing away