New World Res A Share Discussion Threads

[p bear] 01/7/2009 10:57

> US Steel, Mittal Poland and CZ, Trinec and Voest alpine are all producing at 30 - 40 pct capacity and have 6 months worth of coke in stock.

Working with steel raw materials and metals, this IMHO is what has changed. These customer will have much less stock now (6months stock would have been true in JAN/FEB, after running hand to month for so long these guys will be taking material again.

The big problem with Q1 results was although material was sold, what was reported was that customers were not taking. Q2 will show customers are taking again and (although coming from a very low level) some demand has returned and from my experiences a few producers/suppliers have been caught short - the surge in spot prices of base metals and other raw materials reflects this. How long it lasts for I don't know.

But NWR do not belong at £3 +/- 25p. £4-5 +/- 25p is more realistic. And in long-term US Steel, Mittal Poland and CZ, Trinec and Voest alpine and crew will be producing at 100 pct.

[seible] 30/6/2009 22:46

P Bear - thanks for your answers.

I actually also don't understand why HY results shall be in any way positive. After Q1 it was all doom and gloom and management said at the presentation they have not seen anything to be optimistic about.

As I said earlier I am still adding (in fact added today) and have a belief that the share price may go back to the highs of the last year I just think it will take longer for the company to recover even to say 500-600p levels and HY won't have any unexpected positive news in terms of demand and earnings but of course I would love to be proven wrong. Has anything changed from Q1 in terms of supply and earnings?

Regards

[gk1066] 30/6/2009 22:07

NWR enjoys a 30 Euro price cushion being rail costs to NWR customers from Polish or Adriatic ports. They look at international prices and set their own with the 30 Euros in mind. US Steel, Mittal Poland and CZ, Trinec and Voest alpine are all producing at 30 - 40 pct capacity and have 6 months worth of coke in stock. Until this changes NWR is going to trade at £3 +/- 25p.

[p bear] 30/6/2009 08:58

> Could coking coal demand in China lift the prices NWR charges for its coking coal in Europe?

Technically not. However it is about comparative supply. If a mill in Europe does not buy from NWR it has to take alternative material from say South Africa or South America, which the producer is not going to sell in Europe if the price is higher in China.

[seible] 29/6/2009 21:06

Could coking coal demand in China lift the prices NWR charges for its coking coal in Europe? I thought because of the distance this are really two separate markets, although I would love if this wasn't true and NWR could in any way benefit from this. Thanks

[deadly] 29/6/2009 16:34

lovely bit of volatility near the end from 275 to near 290. With no stamp duty these are a great trading share.

[p bear] 29/6/2009 16:05

This is off the radar compared to other (diversified mining stocks):

Macquarie Commodities Comment:

Spot coking coal deals have been reported as high as US$136/137/t FOB. Chinese coking coal mines are yet to respond (although we are hearing of some potential for a relaxation of restrictions on those mines that already have permits), and thus, Chinese import demand has to date remained high. Together with strong demand from Indian steel mills, this has been enough to tighten the seaborne coking coal market, lifting prices above contracts of US$129/t and around US$20/t higher than this year's spot price lows.

[monsta2] 29/6/2009 15:51

aint doing much today but other mining stocks are

[p bear] 29/6/2009 11:02

Seible - power emission are not really the issue for NWR. The real income from NWR comes from met coal which NWR turn to coke or sell to other to turn to coke. These and already established EU regulations mean it is very hard to get permitting for new coke production in the EU (example would be Corus have tried for years to get a permit to produce coke in South Wales) with cost effective coke having to come from countries with less stringent regulations. With already established coke production in local supply the effect is the price is driven up. Great news for NWR.

Firm prices on coking coal as bushtuckaman picks up on. Corner turned in terms of demand, prices firm - NWR at or below 300p is silly. Wait HY results and 450p will be a min.

[bushtuckaman] 29/6/2009 08:51

I picked this up from phil0001 on the WTN thread, of some interest I think

[gpitchford] 28/6/2009 21:38

The 6 month chart is showing a classic pennant.
It should break north but when?

[seible] 28/6/2009 12:36

Have you seen the agreement reached by EU environmental chiefs to curb pollution by applying the new emmission strandards to energy plants? It is posted by Gilgamos in another discussion thread on NWR.

Does anyone have any thoughts on how it might affect NWR mid to long-term?

I see that under proposals old power plants are not affected until 2016 and there is a special treatment for the UK and Poland but still...

Thanks

[gilgamos] 28/6/2009 01:37

Czech court acquits three of illegal siphoning off money from OKD

Hradec Kralove - A Czech court today acquitted all three men suspected of illegal siphoning off assets from the OKD mining company, former OKD owners Viktor Kolacek and Petr Otava, and former OKD board deputy head Jan Przybyla.

If found guilty, the suspects would have faced up to 12 years in prison.

The three were accused of insider trading. The plaintiff said they gained property worth 2.1 billion crowns for themselves and for their company Karbon Invest at the cost of OKD and the Ceskomoravske doly (CMD) mining company.

All three pleaded not guilty when their trial started this March.

They used their right not to testify, and they did not attend further court sessions.

The state attorney proposed that Kolacek and Otava be sentenced to about eight years and Przybyla to three years with four-year probation.

The police suspected the three of having made illegal transactions to the detriment of OKD and CMD in 1999. Their prosecution was launched in 2003.

One year later, Kolacek and Otava sold OKD and CMD to entrepreneur Zdenek Bakala.

CMD ceased to exist in 2005, OKD in 2006.

At present the former companies' mining activities are controlled by the Dutch company New World Resources.

[pmeldrum] 26/6/2009 10:31

My work colleague from Czech has just bought these..his first ever share...says it is agood long term prospect as the shares are so cheap and the company is growing

[pmeldrum] 26/6/2009 09:41

My work colleague from Czech has just bought these..his first ever share

[gilgamos] 26/6/2009 00:01

For info on NWR check out the site

[themoocha] 25/6/2009 14:56

Nice one bush - made me lol !!

Regards

TM

[bushtuckaman] 25/6/2009 08:16

Buying the spikes ;-)

[mustau] 25/6/2009 08:09

buying the dips -3 year hold.

[adieadie] 25/6/2009 07:33

I'm posting but not reading

[nam0] 25/6/2009 00:19

I am here reading but not posting.

[arai] 25/6/2009 00:11

Mr. Bear, I still see the 6 month chart as a downward trend, this is putting me off slightly. Mervin Kings comments today have not helped my "recovery play" selection as it may have another 15% to creep down over the next few weeks but as soon as I am in place I will report in.

p.s. Is there only me and you here ? And have you anything else to add that I should be aware of ?

A.

[p bear] 24/6/2009 14:11

Personally I like to do things without the leverage, but you are right in your assessment. Durable goods numbers just out amazing - things are turning (slowly) and NWR has a long way to go up and not so far downside. Plus it is partly an energy play which is a win/win IMHO.