Mereo Biopharma Share Discussion Threads

[tarlok] 19/8/2020 07:49

ended at 3.19 on us market, up over 7 % could explain the 25000 buys going through late yesterday...

[harleymaxwell] 19/8/2020 00:07

and repeat

[bad gateway] 18/8/2020 14:37

Some interest in the US today,hovering around the 310 area on the bid which gives nigh on 47p here.

[yasx] 29/7/2020 00:35

MPH, for reasons stated weeks ago, was a good wheeze at 19p - the strategy remains as before, to run a free carry from the initial investment.

[ih_752952] 24/7/2020 10:53

DNL =3x Approvals expected during next 2 months including an Orphan Drug with FDA decision on September 29 = CHEAPEST UK Biotech a potential 500%++ GEM

Diurnal Group (DNL) = MCap £38 M / Cash £15 M or enough untill early 2022 / LOTS of BIG milestones on the way = Still the MOST attractive and CHEAPEST pharma stock in UK has potential to run toward 200p very fast especially on approval of Alkindi in USA (expected in September) and Chronocort in Europe (expected in Q1 ) =STRONG BUY AGGRESSIVE a sleeping giant here .GL

Market Cap £38 million
Cash £15 million
Price 30p


Alkindi approval in Australia expected this Quarter
Alkindi approval in Israel expected this Quarter
FDA decision for Alkindi on September 29
EMA Decision for Chronocort expected in early Q1 2021

[bad gateway] 23/7/2020 08:07

Moving in the U.S just not here. Ended just over 51p on the bid last night.

[bad gateway] 16/7/2020 00:59

Apparently this is a good example of a bollinger band squeeze play? have pasted it up to keep an eye on it.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[guman] 10/7/2020 21:12

on line could not sell more than 1000 shares with HL at bid price of 46p

[bad gateway] 01/7/2020 19:32

These have shot up in the US again today and look like they want to break up again.
Currently close to 52.5p bid so will probably have to open the spread in the UK tomorrow.

[harleymaxwell] 20/6/2020 01:15

18 m sell at 29 p?

[bad gateway] 19/6/2020 18:49

Selling well over 50p again on the nasdaq. Apparently theres some excitement over Roche's anti -TIGIT data next week which is best I can find apart from the previously reported broker targets of course.

[bad gateway] 12/6/2020 08:53

Don't like to predict with this one. The note itself was a surprise (to me) but the $1.13 eps for this year alone comes out at c.18p/share unless I'm very much mistaken.
Holding and waiting on developments myself whilst trusting the nas to move the stock more than the UK.

[cliveas] 12/6/2020 08:31

If SVB estimate for eps is correct what sp/mcap are we looking at?

[holdbucket] 11/6/2020 16:26

BG great find and impressive figures. Up18% in NY and we're now moving +10% on an otherwise bad day.

[master rsi] 11/6/2020 16:20

Back in the Nasdag are flying, and posted in my page earlier, they went over $3 from 2.35 opening

[bad gateway] 11/6/2020 15:50

Found the reason. Can't believe the EPS figure?


SVB Leerink Weighs in on Mereo BioPharma Group plc’s FY2020 Earnings (NASDAQ:MREO)
Posted by John Perry on Jun 11th, 2020
Mereo BioPharma Group plc (NASDAQ:MREO) – SVB Leerink issued their FY2020 EPS estimates for Mereo BioPharma Group in a research note issued to investors on Monday, June 8th. SVB Leerink analyst J. Schwartz forecasts that the company will post earnings per share of ($1.13) for the year. SVB Leerink also issued estimates for Mereo BioPharma Group’s FY2021 earnings at ($1.25) EPS, FY2022 earnings at ($1.50) EPS and FY2023 earnings at ($1.88) EPS...continues..


Found the link/news here..

[bad gateway] 11/6/2020 15:43

Bit of excitement on the Nas with these today. SB's are showing 274 on the bid.

[master rsi] 06/6/2020 22:52

Confirmation of Acacia Research bought the rest of the MPH stake from Woodford fund. "Market stock Mereo Biopharma (MPHM) also feature, according to the report."
Woodford fund tumbles 20% on cut-price stocks sale
Woodford Equity Income hit by £114m loss as stakes in up to 19 of the failed fund's biotech stocks are sold to US investor Acacia Research.

By Daniel Grote - 05 Jun, 2020
The Woodford Equity Income fund has slumped by 20% after a number of the failed fund’s biotech stocks were sold to US investor Acacia Research (ACTG.O) in a cut-price deal.

Fund administrator Link Fund Solutions has sold up to 19 of the fund’s biotech stocks representing half of its assets to Acacia in a £224m deal.

The deal for the assets, struck at a price well below the level at which the stocks were being valued by the fund, has wiped £114m off its net asset value, which has dropped from £558m to £444m. The slump has taken investors’ losses on the fund since it was suspended one year ago to 27%.

Ryan Hughes, head of active portfolios at AJ Bell, said the price of the deal would be met with ‘huge frustation’ from investors trapped in the fund.

‘This highlights the very real problem of being a forced seller with all potential purchasers knowing that... Link were in no position to try and push the price higher,’ he said.

Link said in a letter to investors the deal would pave the way for further payments to investors in the fund, but warned some aspects of the deal could take up to six months to complete.

‘We are currently unable to confirm the exact dates and amounts in respect of these further capital distributions but we will write to you with an update no later than 29 July,’ it said.

So far investors in the fund, which stood at £3.7bn at the time of its suspension, have received payments of £2.3bn, distributed in January and March this year.

Shares in US-listed Acacia have soared 27% over the last two days after Sky News reported earlier this week the group was closing in on a deal to acquire Woodford’s assets.

According to Sky News, the deal includes Woodford’s stake in unquoted gene sequencing company Oxford Nanopore and drug developer Immunocore. US-listed Therevance Biopharma (TBPH.O) and Alternative Investment Market stock Mereo Biopharma (MPHM) also feature, according to the report.

Link did not disclose the names of the stocks included in the deal. ‘The shares are in up to 19 public and private life sciences companies,’ it said. ‘Link Fund Solutions cannot comment on the particular companies involved.’

Link is also understood to have considered a deal for a smaller number of the fund’s assets from Neil Woodford, the sacked former manager of the fund, who had been approached by a number of institutional and family office investors. That bid, understood to have included offers for the fund’s stakes in Oxford Nanopore and Immunocore, was ultimately rejected in favour of Acacia’s.

Agreement on the sale follows the reported collapse of a £550m bid to buy the fund’s biotech start-ups from life sciences investor WG Partners earlier this year.

Woodford’s former investment trust, Schroder UK Public Private (SUPP), holds a number of the same stocks as the failed fund and said last month the sell-off by Woodford Equity Income would ‘continue to cause disruption to a number of investee companies’.

The Acacia deal will not necessarily lead to markdowns in any of the trust’s shared assets, however. Link, which is also alternative investment fund manager to the trust, has said that the valuation of stocks by the fund could differ to those employed by the trust given the fund’s wind-up. Shares in Schroder UK Public Private were up 2% at 26.2p this morning.

Separately, East Midlands law firm Nelsons, which has been considering a claim against Hargreaves Lansdown over its promotion of Woodford Equity Income, has said it is now exploring a case against Link.

Nelsons partner Cathryn Selby said the firm was focusing on Link’s approval of Woodford’s listing of some of his unquoted companies on Guernsey’s stock exchange to avoid breaching limits on how many of these companies funds are allowed to hold. Citywire revealed Woodford’s Guernsey move last year, two months before the fund’s suspension.

‘We are looking at whether such decisions were indeed in the best interests of all investors, or whether it could be said that investors were let down by Link Fund Solutions’ apparent failure to address the substantive issue of the increasing illiquidity of the fund at a much earlier stage,’ she said.

[yasx] 04/6/2020 23:34

On the 25th of May, with the price at 19p, I set out my exegesis of this stock, reproduced hereto...

yasX 25 May '20 - 20:01 - 539 of 654 Edit
0 6 0
It appears to me that some are perplexed by what MPH is all about. Allow me to elucidate by providing a brief precis of both the risks and potential reward here...

In essence, this is not a get rich overnight share, although I opine it has been heavily sold down and there may well be a sharp rebound. But, I am certainly neither banking on nor hoping for that (indeed, it would suit me if it were to continue to decline since I would be able to accumulate more going forward at lower prices). Be that as it may, there are in my view various reasons as to why it has been sold down, as follows:

a) Link/Invesco disposing of their shares. At the time of writing they hold 15.2% and 12.9% respectively, and I think there is every reason to assume they will continue to offload - this will serve to suppress the price of the shares unless...

b) unless Acacia (or another outfit) take out the aforementioned overhang. It has been rumoured in recent months that Starboard have given Acacia some $400 million to make a few acquisitions and that one of the targets has been the remnants of Woodford's previous holdings (which includes MPH). There has been a vague rumour in the press that Woodford himself may well be interested. Irrespective of who might take up the slack, this would be a positive development for the shares since it would remove the overhang that is suppressing the shares.

c)The Co. has a very high burn rate - that is not a surprise since outfits of this type do incur considerable expenditure to prove up the potential drugs. There is the prospect of further funding.financing this year, but this might not just be in the form of equity issuance but different financing arrangements are also likely. The Co. has recently entered into two financing deals earlier this year and undoubtedly there will be more either in the short term or later this year. The nature of those deals will impact on the shares, favourably or otherwise (I suspect favourably since given the potential of the drugs any equity raising will surely not be contemplated below the rpice paid by the recent US institutional investor and partnership arrangements will be most welcome - Navicixizumab was earlier this year licensed to Oncologie for approx $6M upfront and up to $300M in future milestone payments/royalties).

d) Targeting further drug acquisitions which at this stage I would prefer they left alone - they have enough to be getting on with and it only needs one strike for this to go into orbit. The key offering is Setrusumab for osteogenesis which has thus far demonstrated positive output data notiwthstanding a failure to meet the primary endpoint (I know that sounds rather silly, but not so when one considers that subsequent to the Phase 2b they are now embarking on a Phase 3 study pursuant to guidance from the FDA.This will take at least a year so nothing to get excited about regarding this study in the very near term. Make no mistake, this is a binary bet with no certainty of success, but, if they pull it off....

e) They also have Alvelestat, with potential for a rare respiratory disease , at Phase 2 stage - we should get more on this at some point this year.

All of this consumes cash, as explained above. The exact cash position is not known since the last stated amount will now be dramatically different, although I expect they probably do not have a substantial amount and will likely as pointed out earlier require further funds this year, the form of which is not yet known (at least not to me). I think they have demonstrated a good track record of entering into partnerships and the ability to raise cash via equity raisings (I would not like to see placing at or around this level since I think this undervalues the potential of the product portfolio. One factor I need to consider in more detail is the track record of the Board - I personally have not invested in any outfit they have previously been involved in, and aside from having reviewed their profiles have nothing further to say on that aspect for now. Incidentally, I was not overly impressed with the Proactive interview with the CEO (she did not strike me as being very capable, but then, perhaps that was just my assessment of it).

In summary, do not expect drug success overnight. Do bear in mind that these offerings need expenditure, and currently they are not fully funded to commercialisation. But, the shares in my view do not reflect the potential of the pipeline and I think once this overhang clears, and with an announcement or two relating to further financing arrangements, this could well double or treble this year before any potentially epochal development relating to any of the study outcomes (and particularly Setrusumab emerges. That is how I intend to play this - I will sell some when the shares on the way up (for so I assume) and hit my assumed double, treble or whatever price point ahead, and then I intend to run the rest as free carry and see if they have a successful outcome on any of the offerings. IN short, I think on potential these will race higher at some point, I will then sell sufficient amounts to preserve capital allowing the rest to run contingent upon study outcomes.

In this way I suspect I will have a free carry that could potentially be a 20 bagger plus from these levels.

I welcome counter bearish views, since these are far more preferable than bulls merely echoing the same. I like to critically assess any share I hold and well constructed bearish views are certainly invited (numpty Stig need not bother). Incidentally, I rarely change my view based on what others suggest but it is never a bad thing to review the merits of an investment based on any critical analysis.

As it happens, it has played out exactly as I had anticipated - only much quicker. I have taken most of them off the table since the rise was very sharp in the near term - but, the long term thesis remains unchanged and is contingent upon the outcome of the trials and further partnership/financing deals. The potential remains huge..

[avsome1968] 04/6/2020 23:10

I thought AVCT got ahead of itself and sold at 138 but it just carried on to over 210

[showmethemoneyhoney01] 04/6/2020 23:03

The Nasdaq yesterday fuelled the rise in the first place. Happy to hold the shares I still have as upside is good but the dilution caused by the large placing limits the upside. If I had more than my current holding I would consider trading them as I think this rise is speculative and will cool but who knows. They only raised money in February
'Mereo BioPharma Enters into a $5 Million Convertible Equity Financing with Novartis and Announces a Securities Purchase Agreement with Aspire Capital Fund, LLC for up to $28 Million'