Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[1gw] 21/8/2015 08:47

Impressed. Please share...

[buffettjnr] 20/8/2015 21:47

Seeing management tomorrow...

[ariesr] 20/8/2015 17:03

Happy to sit and observe for a bit whilst getting to know the share price Plenty of time.

[1gw] 20/8/2015 16:50

Nice finish...

[buffettjnr] 19/8/2015 16:02

Ariesr, you are most welcome to borrow by scrip.

[1gw] 19/8/2015 15:49

Seriously considering buying but I think I'll give it a while longer to settle down.

[ariesr] 19/8/2015 15:38

Considering short to 380 once things settle

[my retirement fund] 19/8/2015 14:46

Watching and waiting

[buffettjnr] 18/8/2015 15:39

Thanks for that. I'm convinced Lake Street will push to unlock value. The key surprise is that distribution can actually be a very attractive stand alone business. The market will appreciate that at some point. We bought more today.

[1gw] 18/8/2015 15:15

Just listened to the webcast. Very bullish tone, I thought. The new CEO has set out his stall to deliver 2 growth businesses (at least in terms of profit). He also sounded confident that the operational problems are largely behind them and the aviation business is now firing on most if not all cylinders - in particular "Heathrow is now making money and will be a good part of the business going forward."

The "Re-shaping the Group" slide (no. 31) seems to be all about why they don't want to split the business - e.g. they've replaced 2 boards by one ExCo and they've got support services running across the group. However, there was nothing to address the more fundamental points of whether the market is able to fairly value the combination of 2 such different businesses or whether the group is an efficient re-allocator of capital from the distribution business to the aviation business. So I remain a staunch believer in the potential to generate significant shareholder value from a split and I hope that Lakestreet continue to press for this.

Incredibly frustrating that Menzies don't include the Q&A session on the recorded webcast that they make available on their site.

[1gw] 18/8/2015 08:10

"John Menzies Slashes Interim Dividend As Profit Hit By Restructuring"

[1gw] 18/8/2015 08:01

I agree the medium-term looks good, but 1H performance on aviation has been worse than I was hoping for. I think ground handling is the bread and butter of the aviation business (about 2/3 of the revenue) so its important to get that right. They make the comments about problems at Gatwick ("operationally challenging", "skills shortfall", "high degree of staff turnover") which are not encouraging.

On 2H, I hope we get some more specific guidance in the presentation. If they have now resolved their operational problems then 2H results ought to look very good year-on-year and half-on-half, but I would like to hear more than just "a greater second half weighting".

[buffettjnr] 18/8/2015 07:48

The more I read the results the more positive I am. It's purely the ground handling business operating earnings which were weak. They should recover. So they will be in for a storming 2H. From a valuation perspective, I like what they are doing with distribution. I'll buy more if it's weak today...

[1gw] 18/8/2015 07:24

Rather disappointing if I'm honest. Nice to see distribution growing its underlying op profit, but earnings less than the dividend is a bit of a shocker with a fairly material hit from the loss of the Spanish business.

Still, good growth in aviation top line and the promise of jam tomorrow - "a clear route to earnings growth in both divisions." Have to wait for the presentation or Q&A to flesh out 2H expectations.

[buffettjnr] 17/8/2015 17:58

Thanks. That's very helpful. I personally pay little attention to currency movements. It tells us nothing about the operational performance of the company. It will be interesting to see if activist pressure compels them to produce good numbers.

[1gw] 17/8/2015 17:38

Indeed. I'll be looking for:

o a return to year-on-year growth in aviation underlying op profit (i.e. can they beat the £13.3m reported for 1H14, which was down from £15.5m in 1H13), or will ongoing forex headwinds and the hangover from the 2014 Heathrow problems mean another 1/2 year of decline - in which case can they at least manage constant currency YoY growth in aviation?
o confirmation that 2H will be strong and that growth can be expected in 2016;
o what sort of exceptional hit they have to take on the Spanish tender loss (they talked about no material impact on underlying earnings);
o any comments they make on either the Swissport sale price or the possibility of splitting aviation off from distribution (not very hopeful of anything on these in the prepared releases but there might be something in the analyst Q&A).

[buffettjnr] 17/8/2015 17:05

lets see what tomorrow brings...

[grahamite2] 17/8/2015 16:23

Interims tomorrow.

[1gw] 11/8/2015 14:45

$2.8bn (2.73bn CHF)transaction value for Swissport.

Lakestreet and Kabouter (who was said to be sympathetic to Lakestreet's arguments for splitting Mnzs) have both increased their stakes recently (and now have over 16% between them according to the July holdings notices).

Looking forward to next week's results and whatever comments are made on the two subjects.

[buffettjnr] 17/7/2015 07:35

Morning. If you consider the news that HNA could acquire Swissport for over $3bn...I makes Menzies undervaluation look laughable! If I use a 20% discount to these multiples and poly them to Menzies I get to about 900p per share for MNZS.

Here is the article for your reading pleasure:

[1gw] 07/7/2015 11:42

Lakestreet up to 6% on 1st July (from 3% on 27th March). This is getting interesting.