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| 0.00 | 0.00% | 187.25 | 01:00:00 |
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Posted at 26/6/2015 09:06 by bakunin hazlThis has been going on for quite a while. Also known as M2M. They started talking about dispensers/fridges ordering replenishments at the time of the dot-com bubble. Imagination was running wild at the time, but the "plumbing" was far from capable at the time. Where we are we didn't get proper broadband until around about 2009 and we're not exactly rural. Remember a company called Boo ca. 1999 (I'm sure it was called that) selling fashion online with fancy images. They burned their way through a massive cash pile in the space of a couple of years, never made any revenue and just disappeared. Their technology needed good broadband. Now, we've got BooHoo.com that has hit the scene and appears to be very successful. Literally, where the Internet is concerned (more specifically it is TCP/IP that is the enabler), developers are limited by their imagination and the "plumbing" (we are mainly dependent on BT). As with all discontinuous innovations, there is no shortage of imaginative enthusiasts and pioneers. But, for it all to take off the pragmatists and conservatives need to jump on board. They need a beacon like GE to tell them that it is alright to adopt. And even then they only jump when they see others jumping, like a herd. Remember the PC market in 1985 took off when IBM joined the fray. I've been looking for some interesting M2M plays for quite a while. There's quite a few, some that could easily be big players and others that are a bit speculative. In the end, the major industrials like RR. will also muscle in and commoditise it all. They will wait for the small UK start-ups to burn their way through piles of investors' money and then pick and assemble the bits of technology they need. Obvious plays that are already established (and also need to offer better value for me as an investor, so I'm looking for better entry points) are TCM and TRAK. The likes of IMG also have a cloud platform for M2M developers to use. M2M/IOT will require cloud platforms to marshall everything. Expect the likes of Google and Amazon to provide all of that, but they may do it by buying start-up cloud platforms. The network providers like VOD are also sniffing around. There are quite a few bits to the puzzle that need to be assembled. So, look at storage technology providers, Big Data analytics, messaging experts, replication/failover experts etc etc. WAND is interesting in the latter respect, but to me the company is being managed irresponsibly and is maintaining a high valuation through financial manipulation. I've been arguing on the STL thread that they could orient their Omnimark technology towards being the messaging standard in the M2M world, but they are developing document conversion editors instead, a teeny weeny market. There are many, many interesting small outfits that will have a shot at stardom, but they will need a strategy for crossing the chasm and management that can put in place such strategy: UBI, CYAN, TMZ...the list is pretty long... small boys like BVM, sensor makers like TTG etc etc etc. With the likes of TTG, one needs to scuttlebutt to see how seriously they are taking it. A friend of mine who did sales in that area says that they just do standard, low-tech stuff. Lots of articles relating to UBI in recent years and the IOT in manufacturing. A company like UBI is in pole position, but I don't think they have the management to take advantage. TMZ has the potential to be a gorilla. They have the base wireless connectivity technology that will be one of the foundations for M2M. They are doing the correct thing by choosing one vertical domain (VitalSigns) as a first bowling pin to get their technology established. It is also a nicely-sized market. They seem to be taking a bit too much time, though. Crossing the chasm should take about a year or so. They will get caught up/substituted by Apple Watch, Fitbug etc etc if they take much longer. I would imagine that the hospitals see these others coming and are delaying deployment until they can see what else is in the pipeline. Perhaps TMZ haven't partnered sufficiently to speed up adoption. I don't know who is doing the integration at the hospitals, writing the software etc. If they are doing it all themselves, they won't succeed in time. Partnering is essential for launching tornados. They have the prime technology (the wireless chips) which can transfer to many other areas after healthcare, so they shouldn't try and eat all the pie themselves. They can acquire any partners afterwards. CYAN is in a similar situation to TMZ, but they are aiming at a mass market before even creating solutions in smaller segments. That is unlikely to work. They will get overtaken by the bigger boys at the last hurdle. A great pity. All down to management in the end. Very few capable hi-tech managers in the UK. I think M2M will turn into a kind of revolutionary wave like the Internet/information age and there may well be a few hyped-up winners but mostly it will all eventually get co-opted/subsumed/co |
Posted at 24/3/2015 08:45 by bamboo2 Hi hazl, are Convertible Bonds one of those things small investors need to be wary of?Nice looking chart though. I have asked Mrs b to have a look at the website, although her first thought was that the clothes were too cheap. Worried about labour being exploited etc. |
Posted at 19/8/2005 13:27 by energyi Werner F.M. De Bondt Werner F.M. De Bondt is Director of the Richard H. Driehaus Center for Behavioral Finance at DePaul University in Chicago. He studies the psychology of investors and financial markets. Werner De Bondt is one of the founders of behavioral finance. He has examined key concepts of bounded rationality,e.g., people's tendency to exaggerate the true impact of new information, their bent towards wishful thinking, or their biased perceptions of risk. His research articles have appeared in many scholarly journals including the Journal of Finance, the Financial Analysts Journal, the Journal of Portfolio Management, the European Economic Review, and the American Economic Review. Werner De Bondt is a frequent speaker to academics and investment professionals around the world. He holds degrees in economics, engineering, and public administration, as well as a Ph.D. in Business Administration from Cornell University (1985). In past years, Werner De Bondt was a professor at universities in Belgium, The Netherlands, Switzerland, and at his alma mater, Cornell University. Between 1992 and 2003, he was the Frank Graner Professor of Investment Management at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. @: |
Posted at 19/8/2005 13:24 by energyi NOW there are courses on this Subject...= = = = = = = Behavioral Finance at Amsterdam Institute of Finance Instructor: Professor Werner De Bondt Course Description Modern finance theory portrays financial decision-making as rational choice. However, pure rationality fails to describe how many decisions are truly made. = = = = = = = The Behavioral Finance course examines: The various behavioral strategies that amateur and expert investors rely upon to make financial decisions. The structure and dynamics of asset prices in global financial markets (from a psychological perspective). The practical implications of behavioral finance for investment professionals. This 3-day course includes a discussion of common psychological errors such as unrealistic optimism, extrapolation bias, tunnel vision, overconfidence, procrastination, lack of self-control, myopia, and emotional distortion. The aim of the Behavioral Finance course is to provide participants with the background knowledge that is needed (I) to understand and to implement equity investment strategies based on key insights of behavioral finance, and (II) to successfully manage business relationships with clients. Who should attend? The Behavioral Finance course is designed for portfolio managers, security analysts, financial advisors, private banking specialists, affluent investors, regulators, management consultants and corporate executives, as well as anyone who wants to learn about the latest developments in behavioral finance. The course is self contained but prior knowledge of standard concepts in modern finance (e.g. portfolio theory, CAPM, beta, efficient markets) is required for enrollment. For further information about admission, please see our Enrollment Details. Course Content Foundations of behavioral finance Asset price bubbles Sources of price volatility Variance bounds tests Animal Spirits Theory of value Categorization The logic of consequences The logic of appropriateness Bounded rationality Satisficing Elements of behavioral decision-making Heuristics and biases Representativeness Availability Anchoring Mental simulation Mental frames Learning Hindsight bias The seven sins of memory Clinical vs. actuarial judgment Utility theory Prospect theory Loss aversion Reference points Endowment effect Denial Status-quo bias Escalation of commitment Subjective time preference Saving decisions Insurance decisions Mental accounting Well-being Affective forecasting Affect Preference reversals Cultural factors Investor psychology Hope and fear Extrapolation bias Unrealistic optimism Overconfidence Skewness in risk perception Risk attitudes Excessive risk aversion The pyramid model of portfolio choice Regret Disappointment Familiarity bias Inertia Excessive trading Lack of diversification Naïve diversification Managed accounts Systems of household financial management Self-discipline Mood management Accountability Committee decision-making Market psychology Noise traders Positive feedback traders Contagious speculation Herding behavior Stock market overreaction Underreaction to earnings news Growth stocks and value stocks The pricing of IPOs Commonality in the determinants of expected stock returns The quality of analyst forecast of earnings growth Limits of arbitrage Investment strategy Price reversals Price momentum Earnings momentum Industry momentum Style momentum International equity market momentum The interaction of investment strategy and business conditions Risk control @: |
Posted at 23/3/2004 14:00 by energyi This report, by Woody Dorsey (Semiotics)covers some of the same topics: Woody nearly CALLED THE BOTTOM here : (LOW was two days later) MARKET SUMMARY FOR March 11th, 2003 HERD AT THE CURB: As noted, the fever pitch of the E*RAK slogan is totally typical of the sort of significant conceptual seduction characteristic of an equity market turn. We repeat the following because it is a principle which continues to serve investors well: " The annals of underperformance are riddled with men who were too early. "Remain patient and wait to buy. We forget that the markets are explained by principles rather than the minutiae of particular provisional market or media stories. Fixed income is near or at an important high. Do not hesitate to sell all longs over the next days into the FOMC meeting. The long side of equities is shaping up nicely but not quite yet. ... EQUITY STRATEGY: NEW: The next low will set up two rallies lasting into August. BUT: From the first high due in late May, there will be a very sharp correction which could still be part of the rolling capitulation process. If so, new lows in some indices could still occur. From June, there will be a stronger Summer rally. HERD AT THE CURBTM March 11th, 2003: Profile remains on track with expected decline into low near 3/18ish or 3/24ish followed by strong rally into April 9-16 in context of larger rally into late May. Stocks enter Final Decline over next 6-10 Days B4 Playable Low |
Posted at 23/7/2003 17:10 by energyi PBB transfer:Stock Market Crashes Are Predictable, Major Decline Is Coming In 2003 And 2004, Says UCLA Physicist Successfully predicting stock market swings is as futile as searching for the fountain of youth, some people believe. UCLA physicist and complex-systems theorist Didier Sornette is not among them. Sornette, author of a new book, "Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems" (Princeton University Press), has found patterns that occur in market crashes dating back for centuries. Their statistical signatures are evident long in advance, he concludes. Sornette has developed algorithms -- based on sophisticated mathematics, statistical modeling techniques and collective behavior theory -- that enable him to analyze more than two dozen stock markets worldwide. Applying techniques of physics to economic data, he has developed a quantitative model that can predict the signatures of a coming stock market crash. "Economic forecasting is often not effective at predicting changes of direction, but our algorithms are very good at doing so," said Sornette, a professor of earth and space sciences, and a member of UCLA's Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, who is also a research director at the University of Nice's National Center for Scientific Research in his native France. Sornette cautions that his model allows him to make broad predictions, but is not able to predict where the stock market will be on any particular day or week. He disagrees with Alan Greenspan's Aug. 30, 2002, remark that it is "very difficult to definitively identify a bubble until after the fact," but Sornette is unable to predict whether the result of a particular bubble will be a rapid crash or a prolonged bear market. TWO FORECASTS: Aug. 2002 ............ : .........Dec. 2002........... MORE FORECASTS: Latest 2003 ......... : ......... Future ........... Sornette and Wei-Xing Zhou, a postdoctoral scholar in his UCLA laboratory, present bad news for those who hope the bear market is over, in an article in the December issue of Quantitative Finance, a bimonthly journal focusing on the intersection of physics and economics. "The U.S. stock market is not yet on the verge of recovery," Sornette said. "The bear market that started in July-August 2000 still has a long way to go." Sornette and Zhou predict the Standard & Poor's 500 (currently above 900) will begin dropping by the second quarter of 2003 and will fall to approximately 700 in the first half of 2004. The U.S. stock market since 1996 has shown a "remarkable similarity" with Japan's Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992, which may reflect deeper similarities between the fundamentals of the two economies, Sornette and Zhou argue. The S&P 500 has not yet entered a "second phase" of decline, as the Nikkei index did some two-and-a half years into its steep decline. "Our theory is tailored to identify anomalies, bubbles and their end," Sornette said. How accurate are Sornette's predictions? His previous predictions have often been quite accurate, especially his January 1999 prediction (co-authored with Anders Johansen, his former UCLA post-doctoral scholar) that Japan's Nikkei index would rise 50 percent by the end of that year, at a time when other economic forecasters expected the Nikkei to continue to fall, and when Japan's economic indicators were declining. The Nikkei rose more than 49 percent during that time. He also successfully predicted several short-term changes of trends in the Nikkei. "We have strong supporters, and others who say this is impossible," Sornette said. "Scientists typically do not predict the future, but I'm optimistic. Complex-systems theory is a young science, and the predictions will undoubtedly improve over the next five years. We are not able to predict stock markets with anything close to 100 percent accuracy, but I have confidence in the predictions, and confidence that they will become more accurate as we refine our methods." How do Sornette's own investments do? "My research takes all my time; I do not spend even one percent of my time investing in the market," he answered. "However, I have invested with associates, who implemented this system, in particular in hedge-funds. We have done well, and are continuing to do so. This system alone, however, is not sufficient to profit in the stock market with active trading, especially not in the short term and must be complemented with other analyses." In "Why Stock Markets Crash," based on 10 years of research, Sornette proposes his theory of how, why and when stock markets crash. He uses complex-systems theory to dissect market crashes, and a new set of computational methods capable of searching and comparing patterns. While most attempts to explain market failures search for triggering mechanisms in the hours, days or weeks before the collapse, Sornette argues that the underlying cause can be found months and even years before -- in the build-up of cooperative speculation. He provides a step-by-step analysis, using cutting-edge statistical modeling techniques, as well as insights from physics. Sornette analyzes historical precedents, from the decade-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that began in 1585, a time of great prosperity, and wilted suddenly in 1637, to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the bubbles and crashes that occurred every decade in the 19th century, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in October 1987. He analyzes herd behavior and the crowd effect, speculative bubbles, and precursory patterns before large crashes, as well as the major crashes that have occurred on the world's major stock markets. Sornette concludes that most explanations other than "cooperative self-organization" fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which markets lay the foundation for catastrophe. "Collective behavior theory predicts robust signatures of speculative phases of financial markets, both in accelerating bubbles, as well as decelerating 'antibubbles,'" Sornette said. "These precursory patterns have been documented for essentially all crashes on developed as well as emergent stock markets." Sornette sees a series of stages, beginning with a market or sector that is successful, with strong fundamentals. Credit expands, and money flows more easily. (Near the peak of Japan's bubble in 1990, Japan's banks were lending money for real estate purchases at more than the value of the property, expecting the value to rise quickly.) As more money is available, prices rise. More investors are drawn in, and expectations for quick profits rise. The bubble expands, and then bursts. (From the early 1970s to 2000, Hong Kong's stock market accelerated and crashed eight times -- a perfect illustration of his theory.) "Stock market crashes are often unforeseen by most people, especially economists," Sornette added. "One reason why predicting complex systems is difficult is that we have to look at the forest rather than the trees, and almost nobody does that. Our approach tries to avoid that trap. From the tulip mania, where tulips worth tens of thousands of dollars in present U.S. dollars became worthless a few months later, to the U.S. bubble in 2000, the same patterns occur over the centuries. Today we have electronic commerce, but fear and greed remain the same. Humans are endowed with basically the same qualities today as they were in the 17th century." Sornette, 45, also conducts research on earthquake prediction, which he says is much more difficult than stock market prediction, but which he believes will also be possible. A specialist in the scientific prediction of catastrophes in a wide range of complex systems, he has written or co-written more than 250 papers in scholarly journals. Sornette's predictions are posted on his Web site: Note: Sornette, Zhou and UCLA do not assume responsibility for investment decisions made by others. - - - - - ...The idea is that... single isolated microcracks appear and then, with the increase of load or time of loading, they both grow and multiply leading to an increase of the number of cracks. As a consequence, microcracks begin to merge until a ``critical density'' of cracks is reached at which the main fracture is formed... ...As the damage increases, a new ``phase'' appears, where micro-cracks begin to merge leading to screening and other cooperative effects. Finally, the main fracture is formed leading to global failure... - - - - - Prediction: Theory Paper: (and thanks to: Wageslave, who was first to point this out to me) |
Posted at 22/7/2003 00:23 by goatbreath What about this from yesterday's ST for a sell signal:The Sunday Times - Money July 20, 2003 Investors buy shares with house price gains ADVENTUROUS investors are being tempted to unlock equity tied up in their home to invest in the stock market, writes David Budworth. Falling mortgage rates mean it is now possible to borrow money for less than the dividend payment on many shares. A portfolio of high-yielding stocks can therefore pay a regular income that will cover the extra interest on your borrowing — and also offers the potential to make a profit. Hugh Hendry of Odey Asset Management, a fund manager, says: “If you use money you have borrowed at a cheap rate to buy shares that have a high and sustainable dividend yield, you can make a profit even if they don’t go up in price.” Britannia building society is offering a mortgage fixed at 3.94% for five years, with a £299 arrangement fee. Dividends are usually paid net of basic-rate tax, so most taxpayers should look for shares that yield about 4% — excluding dealing fees — to match mortgage costs. The dividend yield is the percentage of a company’s share price paid out as dividends over a year. Details of yields can be found in national newspapers. Higher-rate taxpayers pay extra tax equal to 25% of the dividend received. They would need a yield of about 5.25%. Many shares and income funds are currently yielding more than 4%. The average dividend yield on equity-income funds is 4.05% net of basic-rate tax, according to Bates Investment Services, a financial adviser. It is harder to find companies that yield more than 5.25%, but it is not impossible. On Friday, for example, Prudential, the insurer, was yielding 6.2%, and Sainsbury, the supermarket, was paying 6.1%. Most income funds cannot top 5.25%. Those that do tend to be riskier. Borrowing to invest in shares is a high-risk strategy. The danger is that dividends and share prices will fall and mortgage rates rise. You may then find that the yield on the shares you have bought does not cover your outgoings. You would therefore have to fund your debt out of your own income; you could also lose a large slice of capital. |
Posted at 15/3/2003 17:03 by energyi MORE from the ZEAL articleIn perfectly comparable indexed terms, the dismal failure of the latest bear-market rally in the S&P 500, the blue one above, is phenomenally bearish. Not only is the recent post-rally downtrend in the S&P 500 sloped steeply downward in a laser-sharp line, but the index has already witnessed two bearish technical failures below this important support. 85% of the ground gained from the latest V-bounce low of 777 has already been lost. The S&P 500 is once again trading within spitting distance of these important levels and it won't take much fear to push it through. Once the S&P 500 closes below 777 for a few days, a blizzard of sell orders will hit as confidence crumbles. In addition, many speculators set stop-losses right under recent lows in order to protect themselves. As these stops are triggered the waterfall will accelerate dramatically, feeding on itself and breeding even more frantic selling. 777 truly is the Moment of Truth when popular bullish fairy tales boldly heralding the end of the Great Bear will face their ultimate acid test. If I was long this market today like the bulls, the chart above would deeply disturb me. If everything is so wonderful in the US equity markets as the perma-bulls claim, why does the current decay curve in the flagship US equity index line up exactly with past S&P 500 behavior right before previous waterfall declines to new lows? Why is the trend down, with lower lows and lower highs, rather than the other way around? If the markets really believed that war was somehow positive wouldn't they anticipate this and rally ahead of the fighting? This week, three long and painful years after the NASDAQ bubble topped, it defies belief that so many investors and speculators still don't understand the central issue behind bubbles and busts. Things like the coming Iraq war, economic releases, news, and single-day movements are totally irrelevant. They are merely useless distracting noise. |
Posted at 28/12/2002 15:23 by energyi WHY ARE SO MANY FORECASTS WRONG?This excellent article makes some of the same points. (excerpt): " It should have been very simple for any competent analyst to recognize the bubble as the ratio of stock prices to corporate earnings hit levels that clearly were not sustainable in the late nineties. Had analysts and policy makers recognized the bubble and warned investors and the general public, stock prices never would have risen to their bubble peaks, and the resulting damage would have been far less than what the economy is currently experiencing. While the exact point at which the market had reached an unsustainable level could not be known, and the precise timing of its collapse could not be predicted, it required only simple arithmetic to recognize that the market had reached levels that guaranteed bad returns to long-term investors at the end of the nineties. The failure to recognize the bubble and warn of its consequences stems in part from a misunderstanding of the stock market and its role in the economy. While it is good to have a strong stock market, which allows firms to raise capital at a reasonable price, a stock market that has risen beyond levels that can be justified by reasonable expectations of future profits damages the economy. It leads to mistaken investment decisions and causes households to underestimate their need to save for the future. A stock market that is seriously over-valued is at least as detrimental to the economy as a stock market that is significantly under-valued." :LINK: |
Posted at 28/12/2002 15:18 by energyi Easier said than done!In fact, most predictions are wrong, and the ones that are right tend to get ignored. Example: I have consistently talked about the virtues of gold mining stocks, and successfully forecast (with minor time variations) two important rallies over the past year. (Anyone who followed my "Mugs Portfolio" tips would have made almost 60% in less than two months.) Very few people are interested, despite the consistent accuracy of these forecasts. And now I am suggesting taking profits on gold shares and investing in utilities and watching for an opportunity, within days, to buy index calls. Is there any interest? Next to none. Most people go on about loss-making tech shares, yesterday's dream, rather than working hard so they can anticipate the next emerging trend before it happens. Mr.Sornette's forecast calls for a small rally for the next few weeks, fiollowed by a long crash into 2004. So what are investors doing? Small investors are turning Bearish, and professionals Bullish. If we see a 3-4 week rally, i bet those positions will reverse, just as the market is about to start a long descent. Sornette's forecasts would stop working if a majority believed them and acted upon them early. But if he is really forecasting changes in sentiment, then the forecasts will not be believed (widely) until it is too late to act on them... (Just like my gold forecasts?) |
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