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Employers Predict Stronger First Quarter Hiring Activity for the First Time In
Five Years, According to the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
MILWAUKEE, Dec. 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- U.S. employers continue to show
optimism in their hiring forecast for the first quarter of 2004, according to
the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower
Inc.
"Five years have passed since we last witnessed an increase in hiring
expectations between the fourth quarter survey and the employment outlook for
the new year," said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Chairman & CEO of Manpower Inc.
"Although hiring intentions are still not as buoyant as they were in the late
1990s, employers are taking a step in that direction with their hiring plans for
the beginning of the year."
Of the 16,000 U.S. employers that were polled, 20% said they plan to boost
employment levels for the first three months of 2004, while 13% anticipate a
slower hiring pace. Sixty-one percent of employers expect to offer the same
number of jobs as last quarter, and 6% are unsure of their first quarter
employment activity. When the seasonal variations are removed from the survey
results, the data reveals that the hiring forecast from January to March is more
positive than it was last quarter and relatively consistent with the outlook a
year ago.
The new year brings stronger job prospects to each of the four U.S. regions.
Employers in the West foresee the most hiring activity, while those in the
Midwest are the least optimistic. Job seekers in the Northeast are expected to
have more opportunities than they have had in nearly three years.
"As we look at the results of the survey, employers across the country are
clearly more confident about what they see with demand for their products and
services," said Joerres. "In fact, nine of the 10 industry sectors polled are
more optimistic about their hiring intentions in the first quarter than they
were for the fourth quarter of 2003." Public Administration is the only sector
in which employers expect fewer jobs than last quarter.
The results by sector are as follows:
Construction: When seasonal variations are removed from the data, a healthy
employment outlook is in store for the Construction sector. In fact, job
prospects within this sector have not been this strong since the first quarter
of 2001. Hiring intentions for the first quarter are up from the fourth quarter
and a year ago. Job prospects within the Construction industry are expected to
be strongest in the South and weakest in the Northeast.
Education: The employment outlook for the Education sector has been volatile in
the past year, according to the seasonally adjusted survey results. The
forecast for the coming quarter, however, marks the second consecutive
quarter-over-quarter increase in hiring expectations. Education employers plan
to offer slightly more job opportunities in the first quarter than they did in
the final period of 2003, but the estimated hiring pace is still not as strong
as it was a year ago. Education jobs are expected to be most plentiful in the
South and least abundant in the Midwest where job growth estimates are nearly
flat.
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate: The first quarter job forecast for the
Finance/Insurance/Real Estate industry is a picture of stability. Hiring
expectations are consistent with those reported in the fourth quarter and last
year at this time. When the seasonal variations are removed from the data, the
employment outlook for the coming quarter is the strongest it has been since
second quarter of 2001. Finance/Insurance/Real Estate employers plan to offer
the most job opportunities in the West and the fewest in the Midwest.
Manufacturing -- Durable Goods: First quarter hiring estimates within the
Durable Goods Manufacturing sector have rebounded to the same level at which
they were in the final half of 2002. This marks a moderate improvement in
hiring plans over last quarter and a slight increase in job prospects from the
first quarter of 2003. The employment forecast for Durable Goods Manufacturing
is identical across the Midwest, Northeast and South regions and is only
slightly lower in the West.
Manufacturing -- Non-Durable Goods: The first quarter employment forecast for
Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing ends the sector's downward trend in hiring
intentions that began in the second quarter of 2003, according to the seasonally
adjusted survey results. Non-Durable Goods Manufacturing employers anticipate a
moderate increase in jobs for the new year, although this estimate is slightly
more conservative than the outlook was in the beginning months of 2003.
Employment prospects are greatest in the West and fewest in the Northeast and
South.
Mining: Mining employers are more optimistic in their hiring plans than they
have been in more than two years, according to the seasonally adjusted data.
That optimism is most apparent in the Northeast where job projections are up
considerably over a year ago and up slightly from last quarter. Employment
prospects are much less promising in the Midwest where hiring is expected to be
flat.
Public Administration: When the seasonal variations are removed from the survey
results, hiring within the Public Administration sector is expected to decline
in the first quarter of 2004, with employers planning to offer fewer jobs than
they did last quarter and a year ago at this time. Although some hiring is
expected in the coming quarter, only once in the past decade has the employment
outlook within the Public Administration sector been so weak. Hiring intentions
are strongest in the South and weakest in the Midwest and Northeast.
Services: Services employers expect to hire at a steady pace in the first
quarter of 2004. They are more hopeful in their hiring intentions than they
were last quarter but not quite as confident as they were in the final months of
2003. On a seasonally adjusted basis, employment prospects for the Services
sector appear best in the South, while employers in the Midwest are expected to
offer the fewest job opportunities.
Transportation/Public Utilities: When the seasonal variations are removed from
the data, the new year marks the second consecutive quarter of steady job growth
for the Transportation/Public Utilities sector. The employment forecast for the
coming quarter is also slightly stronger than it was a year ago. The most
buoyant job opportunities are anticipated in the West, and the least hiring
activity is planned in the South.
Wholesale/Retail Trade: The employment outlook for the Wholesale/Retail Trade
sector is stronger for the first quarter of 2004 than it has been in a year.
Wholesale/Retail Trade employers are among those reporting the most promising
job prospects for the new year, although they still aren't as optimistic as they
were in the first quarter of 2003. The strongest hiring activity for the
Wholesale/Retail Trade sector is expected in the Northeast. Employers in the
South anticipate the fewest job openings in this sector.
About the Survey
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure
employers' intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their
workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its
kind, unparalleled in its size, scope longevity and area of focus. The survey
has been running for more than 40 years and is one of the most trusted surveys
of employment activity in the world. The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is
based on interviews with more than 35,000 public and private employers worldwide
and is considered a highly respected economic indicator.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is currently available for 18 countries:
Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy,
Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, Norway, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom
and the United States. The program began in the United States and Canada in
1962, and the United Kingdom was added in 1966. Mexico and Ireland launched the
survey in 2002, and 13 additional countries have been added to the program in
2003. For more information, visit the Manpower Inc. Web site at
http://www.manpower.com/ and enter the Press Room.
About Manpower Inc.
Manpower Inc. is a world leader in the staffing industry, providing workforce
management services and solutions to customers through 4,000 offices in 63
countries. The firm annually provides employment to two million people
worldwide and is an industry leader in employee assessment and training.
Manpower also provides a range of staffing solutions, engagement and consulting
services worldwide under the subsidiary brands of Brook Street, Elan, The
Empower Group and Jefferson Wells. More information on Manpower Inc. can be
found at the company's Web site, http://www.manpower.com/ .
In the United States, Manpower offers businesses a range of HR services, in
addition to providing administrative, industrial and contact center personnel.
Under the Manpower Professional brand, the company places contract professionals
on assignment in areas such as information technology, scientific, finance,
engineering and telecommunications. More information about Manpower's U.S.
operation can be found at http://www.us.manpower.com/ .
DATASOURCE: Manpower Inc.
CONTACT: Margaret Gerstenkorn of Manpower, +1-414-906-6336,
Web site: http://www.manpower.com/