Longships Share Discussion Threads

[septemberclues] 31/1/2009 07:15

eh matt..whens the results

[matt c] 30/1/2009 22:01

Dyor and see

[morgan reynolds] 15/8/2008 09:13

there she blows!

[morgan reynolds] 15/8/2008 06:32

PILE IN TODAY GUYS...LETS MAKE SOME DOSH!

Bid Offer Updated Change
FTSE 100 Daily 5506.8 5512.8 06:33 12.5
Wall Street Daily Cash 11648 11654 06:33 28
Anglo American 2908.09 2913.91 16:30 0
Barclays 345.15 345.85 16:30 0
Daily Brent Crude (Oct) 11235 11252 06:33 -138
Spot FX GBP/USD 18640.9 18643.9 06:33 -36
Spot FX EUR/USD 14772.6 14774.6 06:33 -38.1
Daily Spot Gold 790.45 790.95 06:33 -20.1
Daily Spot Silver 1246.5 1251.5 06:33

[parkesdominic] 19/7/2008 09:17

Are there any long term investors out there? Or am I the only one. My Bear Beaters are as follows:

HMS
PVCS
BRWM
JRS
BP. (TNK aside)
KENZ

would be good to know what others are trying or comments. Thanks.

[spob] 27/3/2008 09:26

From The Times

March 26, 2008

Credit crunch: Americans revisit the gloomy spring of 1974

Suzy Jagger in New York

Americans are more pessimistic about their economy than at any time since the oil crisis of 1974, it emerged yesterday, as house prices in the United States fell at their fastest rate for 21 years.

Tight credit markets, rising unemployment and a sharply deteriorating property market conspired to hit consumer confidence in March far harder than Wall Street had expected.

While the US Conference Board, which measures consumer confidence, plunged to its lowest level since March 2003, when the Iraq invasion was under way, economists took fright at the separate reading that monitors Americans' expectations of the economy in the future. That component fell to 47.9 from 58.0, marking the gloomiest outlook since 1974, a period that represents one of the worst periods for the American consumer since the Second World War, evoking memories of queues at petrol stations and roaring inflation.

At the same time, the S&P/Case-Shiller house price index, which records property values in 20 cities, showed that prices for existing homes fell by 10.7 per cent in January, compared with the same month last year. Only one of the cities recorded a rise in property values over the period - Charlotte, in North Carolina - while some areas, such as Miami, Florida, and Phoenix, Arizona, suffered declines of nearly 20 per cent.

Related Links
Lessons learnt from Great Depression
US confidence hit by job cuts and house prices
David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P, said: "Unfortunately, it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007."

Kevin Logan, senior economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York, called the consumer confidence numbers "startlingly bad ... A plunge like this was not expected. Typically, consumer confidence just maps unemployment levels - the likelihood of you keeping your job governs consumer confidence - but unemployment over this period hasn't significantly worsened. It rose a bit to 4.8 per cent last month. Something else is happening here, and we believe what has rocked confidence is the housing market."

Mr Logan said that usually a slide in consumer confidence was a precursor to fall in consumer spending in the near term, as would-be shoppers became reluctant to make large purchases. About 40 per cent of American economic growth is derived from consumer spending.

According to James Knightley, an economist at ING, the Dutch bank, the drop in the expectations measure of consumer confidence would equate to a 1 per cent slide in consumer spending. "This is truly worrying . . . true recession territory," he said. "With house prices plunging, stock prices falling and now employment declining, a rebound of any significance looks a long way off."

Not all commentators were as gloomy. Walter Maloney, of the National Association of Realtors, predicted that the American residential property market would pick up in the second half of this year, once the effect of new rules governing jumbo loans permeated the market. Jumbo loans are mortgages of more than $417,000.

"There is a great deal of pent-up demand at the jumbo end of the market and at the first-time buyer end," Mr Maloney said. The number of new households formed in 2007 was half that of expected levels. "With four million jobs added to the economy last year, we should have seen 1.3 million to 1.5 million new households created over the same period. We actually got about 600,000."

He added that the NAR was predicting that borrowers of jumbo loans would get better deals now that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the federal mortgage groups, could guarantee them. "We are looking for a notable rise in property sales in the summer."



Have your say

What this article fails to mention is that it was Nixon's devaluation of the dollar, not the Arab oil embargo, that initiated high inflation in the US. As for the embargo, it was Venezuela which bailed out the US by increasing production, something which certainly wouldn't happen now with Chavez running the show.

Paul, Coventry,

This just illustrates the risk that the UK economy is facing.House prices are low in the US compared to the UK but wages are higher.

stephen hulton, eure, france

All positive trends depend on very cheap money - again...

Negative interest rates are not the way to sound investment decisions


Peter Vernunft, Berlin, Germany

If you are not a house owner who cares. They never moaned when prices were going up or cared for people struggling to pay rent. Let's hope the silly BBC property shows will now be replaced with something intelligent.

Frederick, London, UK

A 'jumbo mortgage' is one over $417,000 in the US. This would only buy you a 2 bed flat in Streatham! Am I missing something here?

Conor Finegan, London,

First off...when should any citizen of the world trust what an American Business or Governmental spokespersons says.

Really, its that simple. A land of hype and excess is to be expected to exaggerate, embellish and generally lie to continue their lifestyle. It's unfortunate,but true.

World...be on guard about America! At least until we can sort things out and get an honest government in power.







Joe, Boystown, USA

[spob] 27/9/2006 06:19

'Serious correction' under way in US housing market
By Rupert Cornwell in Washington
Published: 26 September 2006

The Independent

All signs pointed downwards for the US housing market yesterday after new figures showing that prices for existing homes declined in August for the first time in 11 years, while sales dropped to the lowest level in two and a half years.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the median price fell 1.7 per cent last month to $225,000 (£118,000), while sales of existing homes dipped 0.5 per cent to an annual rate of 6.3 million. At the same time, ever more owners are being forced to put properties on the market as mortgage rates have steadily risen, further dimming prospects of an improvement in the short term. The total of existing homes on the market is now the highest since April 1993.

The latest data came as scant surprise, after multiplying recent signs of weakness in the housing market. Indeed, most analysts say the trend is natural after a decade-long run-up in prices, especially in urban areas along the east and west coasts. Richard Fisher, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said yesterday that a "serious correction" in the housing market was now in progress.

The figures make it less likely that the Federal Reserve will resume increases in its key short-term rate, which the central bank has held steady at 5.25 per cent at its last two policy-setting meetings.

Not only are inflationary pressures subsiding. The Fed will also be loath to make it even harder for Americans to tap into the equity in their homes - a major factor in the buoyant consumer spending which has sustained the US economy over the past five years.

Reflecting the changing interest rate outlook, the 10-year Treasury note, an important yardstick for mortgages, rose 7/32 in early trading yesterday, pushing down the yield by 3 basis points to 4.56 per cent.

The weakening market has hit the stocks of building companies hard, as new housing starts have also dipped. About the lone bright sign has been a fractional easing of the most popular 30-year mortgage rate to 6.4 per cent in the most recent week. Even so, that compares with a 5.8 per cent rate in September 2005.

[melita gnome] 22/5/2006 22:41

I think those who have had their Snouts in the Trough will be well aware of this steve....

Too late 'ol saddo..the horse has long bolted after the stable door was left open..
CIAO

[supercity] 22/5/2006 20:28

surely longs would surge not plunge?????

[maestro.] 22/5/2006 20:24

WATCH AND LEARN!

[jl202] 16/12/2003 14:12

sibeks, very accurate comments.

[jl202] 15/12/2003 00:37

7:22pm 12/14/03
Tokyo stocks jump on Saddam capture, dollar rises By Allen Wan
TOKYO (CBS.MW) -- Tokyo stocks soared in early trade Monday while the dollar rose against the yen following the capture of former Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. The Nikkei Average jumped 273 points to 10,443.34. The greenback traded up at 108.11 yen in early Tokyo from the late Friday New York level of 107.90 yen.

[sibeks] 14/12/2003 11:20

I think the news should help the markets globaly to some extent but not overly so FT should open 40-50 points higher and the Dow around 80 this may not last though

[sugarbeast] 14/12/2003 11:11

net effect....zero imo.

[karma sooty] 14/12/2003 11:01

What else ?


Oil - down ?

GOld - down ?

Airlines - up ?

Blancmange - down ( Poor Maestro )


What now ?

[isis] 14/12/2003 10:59

Dow likely to rise 4000 pts while the Nasdaq will push over 7000! - not a good time to be short.

[karma sooty] 14/12/2003 10:55

Maestro - you're in the doo doo

Blancmange prices to plop

[maestro.] 14/12/2003 10:51

looks like shorters are facing carnage monday...footsie expected to rise 200pts..Dow 500pts

[jl202] 14/12/2003 10:51

ttt

rflamo!!!

[jl202] 14/12/2003 10:48

Come on shorters, fill yer pants!!!