Lombard Medical Technologies Share Discussion Threads

[nod] 20/5/2010 12:15

It all sounds positive...


AGM - Trading Update

London, UK, 20 May 2010 - Lombard Medical Technologies PLC (AIM: LMT) the medical device company focussed on the $1 billion abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair market, is holding its Annual General Meeting today. During his introduction to the meeting the Company's Chairman, Simon Neathercoat, gave the following update on developments since Lombard Medical announced its preliminary results on 16 April 2010:

"Lombard Medical continues to make good progress on the strategy outlined at the time of the successful fundraising of £12.1 million (net of expenses) on 1 February 2010.

"The Company has recruited and trained three new sales executives in the UK and one in Germany since the start of the year. These additions and the appointment of Simon Hubbert, a highly experienced VP Sales and Marketing, International from 1 June, place the Company in a strong position to capitalise on the excellent clinical results for Aorfix™ presented at the Charing Cross Symposium in April.

"The benefits of endovascular aortic aneurysm repair are increasingly endorsed by the medical community and the market for our device continues to increase in size, in line with our expectations. The increased promotion of the benefits of using Aorfix™, particularly in patients with tortuous anatomies, is already bearing fruit in the UK where sales are significantly ahead of last year.

"Recruitment into the pivotal US trial remains on track and the Company expects to file the remaining non-clinical PMA modules during 2010, with the filing of the final clinical module of the PMA planned for the first half of 2011.

"Lombard Medical has a busy and challenging year ahead to meet its goals but with the resources from the February fundraising, a focussed action plan, and the drive and determination of a strengthened management team I am confident of the Company's future success."

[lufc5] 11/5/2010 00:29

If it goes sub 1p i'm in for more!!!

[nod] 11/5/2010 00:23

Slide down on low volumes.

[nod] 29/4/2010 23:15

I notice the spread was down to 0.8%

Remarkably low for LMT.

[sparty1] 29/4/2010 08:40

good news this morning.I assume this is new? By DJ Date: Thursday 29 Apr 2010 LONDON (ShareCast) - LONDON (Dow Jones)--Medical device company Lombard Medical Technologies PLC (LMT.LN) Thursday said it has hired a former senior executive of Medtronic Inc. (MDT) to spearhead a sales push in Europe. Lombard said it appointed Simon Hubbert as vice president of sales and marketing, international. Hubbert will take up the role full-time June 1. He has previously worked at healthcare conglomerate Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and medical device giant Medtronic, where he was European business and marketing manager. Following a recent change in strategy and leadership, Lombard is making a push to grow sales of its Aorfix stent graft in Europe. The device is used to treat an abdominal aortic aneurysm, a potentially deadly event caused when a damaged artery balloons with blood. Hubbert's experience will provide an additional level of depth to the company's senior team as it accelerates the launch and roll out of Aorfix in the region, said Lombard Chief Executive John Rush. Company Web site: www.lombardmedical.com -By Jason Douglas, Dow Jones Newswires; 44-20-7842-9272; [e-mail] (END) Dow Jones Newswires April 29, 2010 03:28 ET (07:28 GMT)

[nod] 27/4/2010 20:47

Looks like somebody selling about 4 million shares or 40k quid.

[roundyg] 27/4/2010 15:10

Why the negativity today??

[webshares] 27/4/2010 15:06

would be bullish if we finish above 1.25 today after the morning sell off

[webshares] 23/4/2010 16:55

hey we can't go up every day but as i said before bit of consolidation around this mark before a push towards 1.40 then onto attacking 1.90 again.

[nod] 23/4/2010 12:08

Trading has slowed each day but it still seems to be mostly buys. I get the impression there's not a lot of shares available.

[kinmar] 22/4/2010 10:23

Nod thank you for that excellent response. I am impressed with the wealth of information you have amassed on this company and this has most certainly helped me get a better understanding of the company. I was aware of the company's past and that it had wasted a lot of its resources. I also understand what you say about the sales team and am aware that having your own sales force helps better concentrate on marketing your products - especially when it comes to promoting the higher price of your products in comparision to other inferior products for the more special market that Aorfix is aimed for.

I agree that in the short term the cash resources the company can generate from European sales would be a significant factor - the farther it can progress the US approval application the more sustainable a higher share price will be and theere will be less dilution for the current shareholders. I think that in the event of success with FDA the eventual acquisition by a larger company is inevitable. The takeout price will be greatly influenced by the company's marketing success depend in Europe and how anxious drug marketing companies are in having on board the company's product.

Thank you once again for sharing your insight in this company which has been most helpful. With the steady northwards movement in price we need to see some increase in volumes and this should benefit the short term price - though I appreciate that you are not in it for short term spikes.

[nod] 22/4/2010 08:39

joto - yes, I agree a takeover is likely. The projected sales and profits in 2 years and 5 years will give us an idea of the take out price.

[jotoha2] 22/4/2010 08:35

According to Radar , above 40% of cases are considered challenging , so thats the possible market for this product , and if the overall market is valued at $1.2 billion then you can do the maths and sit back and enjoy the ride.

[munkychunky] 22/4/2010 08:27

Is there any speculation as to the eventual target price for this share price once there is FDA approval?

The market where this product is the only one that can be used must be quite small (I'm guessing) in relation to the overall market for the product used in general cases.

[jotoha2] 22/4/2010 07:50

nod , dont belief they will be around in 5 years , once we have FDA go ahead ,which is now a certainty due to the products superior advantage , then am sure we will be taken out for large bucks , thats the reason Invesco have supported the company so heavily.

[nod] 22/4/2010 06:10

Hi kinmaR,

My assistant, 17Col, has written an excellent summary ;)

What more can I add?

I'd like to know how to value the company. What are its potential sales in 2 years and 5 years hence. I have no idea about the probable numbers. I've seen indications of the size of the market but that doesn't help me work out what slice LMT is likely to win.

[greynag] 21/4/2010 21:36

--> 17Col,
Excellent post. Very interesting. Where did the 75% figure come from?

[17col] 21/4/2010 15:05

kinmaR

You raise some pertinent points, but I believe that there is some history that you are missing in your research:

In 2008 and 2009, LMT was very cash strapped and had a total of 2 full-time sales people for Europe. As such it chased any sales that it could get – eg Russia, Poland and Greece – and ignored the key EU markets such as Germany, Italy, France, Spain, where anti-marketing from its three major competitors was taking place. In addition, until August 2009, it did not have a unique claim – now it is the only product approved in EU for neck angles >60º and/or tortuous anatomy.

The new CEO is much more commercially aware. He has the whole company focused on the big 5 markets in EU. He is using a hybrid sales model dependent on country. Direct selling in UK where LMT has 4 reps (up from 1); Hybrid model in Germany with 1 rep (rising to 2) supporting a local distributor, and Italy 1 technical specialist to support a strong local distributor; and is looking to add 5 more reps in the next quarter. Also, LMT can stress the unique claim and it is now a 'must-have' on hospital shelves which can sit alongside existing competitors which can continue to be used for the simpler cases. UK sales are up over 75% in 1Q 2010.

In the US, the CEO has changed the strategy, now going to sell Aorfix directly with own sales force. Key is FDA approval of the PMA. LMT is using a modular submission approach – six modules, with the sixth (clinical evaluation/outcomes) being submitted in 2Q 2011 when the first five will already have been approved (currently two approved and awaiting third). The trial is past the minimum level of patients required for submission and more than 99% are past the 30-day primary end-point. Now must await the secondary end-point (all-cause mortality data after 12-month follow-up). Hence submission in 2Q 2011.

Based on current forecasts, LMT has enough cash to end 4Q 2011. Forecasts are dependent on the sales ramp in EU and the timing of FDA approval. Better sales than the conservative forecasts would extend the cash timelines, a faster FDA approval would require cash earlier – but either way (both positive reasons) another funding round, at a significantly higher price, would in my opinion be well supported by the institutional shareholders.

The company does have other stents in the pipeline, but that is where the old management team went wrong. Not enough focus and a huge waste of cash (projects have absorbed £50m to date). The new CEO who had a track-record of building small companies to trade sale has got everybody totally focused on making Aorfix a success in EU ahead of FDA approval, so that they can then repeat the sales process in the US.

Hope that this helps and answers most of your questions. As always DYOR

[kinmar] 21/4/2010 12:48

Hi Nod
I am new to these shares and have been steadily doing some research. I am interested to take a punt in the company and am waiting to conclude my research.

Personally I think that predicting what the current market value is, is fraught with difficulties. The potential world market for the product is a rather premature fact to build into a valuation as such. Clearly the length of time it will take to get FDA approval is a more pertinent factor since it might impinge upon the cash burn and therefore the possibility of further cash raising operation. I would say that the company has not yet tackled the European market to any extent though it has the freedom to do so. As far as I can see there is no information of what the European sales are expected to yield for the company.

I believe that LMT is looking to having a sales force to market the Aorfix stents and are looking to take on board other related cardiac products that they could market. I am not sure why the company is not actually utilising existing distributors to do this. Are you? If they did, it would leave the management free to concentrate to exploit and perhaps expedite the FDA approval. Also, as I right is my understanding that the company does not have any other products in the pipeline.

If I have misread anything I shall be pleased to be corrected. I am not trying to be negative – as I have said I am looking to take a punt – but any further information would be most gratefully received.

[nod] 20/4/2010 23:38

We can't use historic prices as a guide after all the shares issued over recent years.

On the back of an envelope, I reckon we would divide the share price in 2005 by 132. Comparing any other points in time would require a calculation using the shares in issue... too time-consuming for me :)

I'll just stick to looking at the market cap now. Would 50 million market cap be outrageous given the global market for Aorfix?

[webshares] 20/4/2010 17:23

We may consolidate around here for a bit and then we should shoot to 1.4 as not much resistance between here and there but if momentum continues we could potentially hit 1.90 even with the extra shares

[nod] 20/4/2010 11:45

With the concentration of shareholders it would not be too difficult to acquire LMT. You would only need to win over Invesco.

[joeblogg2] 20/4/2010 11:36

I have e-mailled LMT asking the possibility of this being fast tracked but no reply and my mail has been read, is there a good chance?

[tctmeeting] 20/4/2010 11:27

I am delighted the clinical data for Aorfix is very positive. For some of us who have supported the company for nearly 10 years we were always confident the device would work because the in-vitro testing and early human clinicals indicated this would be the case.
However the question of value will only be realised following two major events:
1. FDA Approval
2. Establishing nationwide distribution of Aorfix in the US
Perhaps a listing on Nasdaq when Aorfix is approved for sale in the US could raise enough coffers to establish a direct sales and marketing presence in the US (this is where John Rush comes in). Such an event (or threat) could put pressure on one of the large medtech companies to acquire LMT at the 'right price'.

[jotoha2] 20/4/2010 08:16

More positive news, the technology here appears far superior to anything out there ...especially in the states , now lets see the FDA try and delay matters further with all this future inbuild demand coming from the front line.