Litcomp Share Discussion Threads

[laserdisc] 30/5/2009 11:20

This looks way undervalued i am a holder & thinking of topping up very recession proof even if the results dissapoint can't be much more downward

[8trade] 29/5/2009 13:07

Seems to be a buyer with Wins and a seller with Scap :-))

Shame they cant just arrange a cross trade at mid price.

[egoi] 29/5/2009 12:09

Someone bought 45k at 32p. (There was a 25k trade at mid last night, possibly a market maker aware of someone with some stock and able to offer a good price?). increasing volume (both ways) on a breakout always a positive sign imho.

[abc125] 28/5/2009 16:13

Results were 9th july last year.

Bit of background info on Litcomp:




GE&CR have a 165p price target:

[8trade] 28/5/2009 16:04

Yeah 50k, that is huge from memory, on a good day i would class 10-15k
as great size online to be bid.

When are results due then ?

[abc125] 28/5/2009 16:02

agreed, not a share for trading, but a good buy and hold if you have a 6-24 month view. When you have one MM controlling the price, the odds are they know what is happening.

Maybe they got whiff of the results? Why otherwise would they be prepared to take on 50k shares - never seen that b4 with this stock.

[8trade] 28/5/2009 15:56

That would be a huge result to pay off the loan notes !

Sadly those lenders are never going to accept the cash, they want
a chunk of a thriving company !

If they did they would be making eps of 25p+, lol we can dream !

The only drawback with this stock is the lack of liquidity and
market makers, sadly there quite a few stocks like this, not a
problem if you intend to hold a while but not for traders.

Quite a few buys at 32p yet still bidding 27p, hardly generous eh !

[egoi] 28/5/2009 13:13

Thanks re the loan stock info. Re the profits I was being deliberately low key - I think the lowest broker forecast fully diluted was 8.9p which would be something in the region of 1.5 million. Anything that sounds vaguely optimistic on that site tends to be greeted with a certain, erm, scepticism! -;))

Incidentally what helped swing it for me was the increase in cash - even if they had to pay for all the loan notes in cash (worst case imho) they could definitely do it now.

And that - sorry for all the numbers - would leave 6.2 million shares at 30p which would be 1.86 million market cap, so a profit of at least 1.5 million; giving a p/e of 1.25 - with maybe 500k in cash left and no notable debt, together with assets of about 4.5 million and eps in that case would be something like 25p undiluted!

other end of the scale (all convert to shares); approx 15 million shares at 30p market cap 4.5 million. profit 1.5 million p/e 3; 4 million cash net assets 7.5 million; eps 10p.

i won't call it win/win; but certainly no lose. -:))

[abc125] 28/5/2009 12:41

Thanks for that egoi.

Just a couple of points. The loan stock outstanding is £2.6m. It was £3.1m last october but LIN redeemed £0.5m from cash balances, hence the increase in overdrafts to £160k. As a result, there will be less dilution - 14.6m shares instead of 16.6m shares. Also, the profit target for march 09 is £1.8m (not £1.4m). They have already banked £0.877m at the interim stage, so £1.8m should be acheivable.

[egoi] 28/5/2009 12:32

I've scribbled something in Paulypilot's. Please feel free to add/amend anything.

[abc125] 28/5/2009 11:35

32p to buy now. The MM's know its cheap at anything under 70p, which is incidentally Daniel Stewarts price target.

[abc125] 28/5/2009 11:28

egoi

Don't bail out too quick. My 2 year price target is £2!

[abc125] 28/5/2009 11:27

Wish I had bought in at these prices.....lol.

I can now sell 50k at 27p - £13.5k worth. MM's short of stock or book building ?

Bodes well.

[egoi] 28/5/2009 11:19

OK abc you win!! The 5k at 29.8p was mine. No idea whether this will be for 2 minutes 2 months or 2 years, but the lead up to results should be interesting!

[abc125] 28/5/2009 10:39

Great price to buy in at 8trade. I expect MM's won't want to sell too many at 30p - they will know its under priced if results are as expected.

Litcomp done £0.9m pre tax at the half year stage, so £1.8m for the full year should not be too difficult.

[8trade] 28/5/2009 10:11

Like those future forcasts abc, 12-16p !

We know the market cap is obviously wrong but on a whole this remains
a unseen gem.

Growing cash balances and possible forward per of under 3.

Bought the online amount 3500, like these type of stocks, just buying
small stakes in them all rather than risk the eggs in one basket and
the sods law theory where the ones i dont buy will be the ones that
take off.

And it's always done well on results and this time around the price
is over half of what it was on last ones so should do well.

[abc125] 28/5/2009 10:05

8trade

£3.3m cash balance as per last report from memory. Money is slow coming in because of the long tail nature of the litigation cases but bad debts would not be a problem in the legal profession imo.

[8trade] 28/5/2009 09:27

Remind me abc ?

Cash balances and generating lots of cash ?

[abc125] 28/5/2009 08:52

Market Makers allowing the price up on smallish buys. Thats another first.Can now sell 25k at 26.75 - good sign.

If profits come in as expected in July - £1.8m and 8.9 EPS - these should move up to the 60p-70p range.

[abc125] 27/5/2009 16:07

Spread 23p-28p. Can sell up to 25k online at 24.75p but only buy a max of 2.5k at full price of 28p. Thats the first time in over a year you can sell that many online.

Is that a sign of confidence returning? Hopefully, there won't be any surprises in the results. It could mean that MM's are happy to start book building again.

Lets see if it lasts.

[egoi] 22/5/2009 21:55

That's one ugly chart imho! Let's hope Nige has more success than when he 'invested' in Seymour Pierce at about 100p+; wasn't too long before it was 6p......

Roll on October and a price for LIN over 30p, or I think it's not going to be pretty.

[abc125] 22/5/2009 20:12

Nigel Wray has upped his stake in Alliance Pharma (APH) today....its 5 bagged from its low in Jan.

[abc125] 22/5/2009 19:57

42k shares traded today, most for 6 months....lol.

Anyone been adding?

[abc125] 20/5/2009 23:36

Glen

The only thing holding the shares back imo is the uncertainty surrounding the loan notes. There is £2.6m outstanding - originally it was £3.6m - and if holders convert their bonds into equity, LIN will be in a net cash position of £3.5m odd.

My hunch is Nigel Wray, who holds £1m, and the others will convert, but we won't know until october for sure. If he does convert, expect plenty of publicity and jamboree through Rivingon Street Holdings

As an incentive, LIN may introduce a maiden divi later this year (Interims perhaps?). Each £1 loan note converts into 3.3 ordinary shares, so a 3p divi per share would equate to a 10% yield for loan note holders - the same as they are getting now. GE&CR estimate 16p diluted EPS for march 2010, so it would be easily affordable.