Just Car Clinics Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 10/6/2011 11:57

The premium rises are ridiculous - all resulting from the personal 'injury' claim culture. Those fishing adverts make me seethe.

[envirovision] 10/6/2011 11:51

I guess the share price will stop its gradual decline once the number of vehicles on the road stop declining and perhaps a sign this decline may halt could be A) When Insurance premium stop exponential YOY increase and B) Petrol Prices Fall

[spaceparallax] 10/6/2011 11:36

Remarkable dip over recent days - this is too good a company for such a crazy share price

[spaceparallax] 06/6/2011 20:13

Cheers RM - that makes the current PER pretty modest.

[rmillaree] 06/6/2011 19:13

New broker forecasts (from BD) out for JCR and they have £0.7 million pencilled in for the current year pre-tax profit and £1.0 million pre-tax for next year.
This works out at eps of 3.8p this year and 5.5p next year.

[spaceparallax] 01/6/2011 14:52

Good lord, a bounce.

[spaceparallax] 19/5/2011 14:07

AGM statement not unexpected, but it does at least sound as if Management are doing all possible to mitigate the pressures.

Grim to see the MMs really scalping any sellers atm.

[spaceparallax] 09/5/2011 12:27

Good article - to be honest, I'm very pleased to see that a few more are opting for public transport. It's just a shame that their prices remain so high. It'll be interesting to see how much that reduction helps road congestion - I would expect it to be considerable.

All that said, JCR must ensure that they compete well in their mkt and be clever by introducing new 'value' offerings to the mkt.

[wraz] 09/5/2011 12:04

News item today shows more gloom for sectors reliant on motoring...

Rise in train travel is linked to rise in petrol prices and falling road traffic

The sharp rise in the price of petrol over the first three months of the year was one of the main reasons behind continued strong growth on the railways during the first quarter of 2011, train companies reveal today.

Figures published by the Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) show that passenger numbers on the railways grew by 4.8% in the first three months of 2011, taking growth over the entire financial year 2010/11 to 6.6%.

The analysis shows that:

- A total of 316m journeys were made in Q1 2011, compared to 301m over the same period last year.

- When compared to the first quarter of 2010, journeys in London and the South East grew by 4.7%; long distance journeys by 4.1%; regional journeys by 5.2%.

- Over the entire financial year 2010/11 a total of 1.34bn journeys were made on the railways.

On average, petrol prices have risen at around twice the rate of rail fares over the last 12 months. Compared with April last year, petrol is up by an average of 13%. This compares with rail fares, which rose by an average of 6.2% in January. The last few months saw a particular spike in the price of petrol, rising by 11% from mid December to mid April alone.

Research carried out for ATOC shows that 1 in 6 rail users said that they have switched from car to train for at least one journey during February and March this year – around half of these people said that this was because of the price of petrol.

Passenger demand forecasting measures used by the rail industry indicate that a 5% rise in petrol prices can lead to around a 1% rise in journeys on the rail network.

Michael Roberts, ATOC Chief Executive said:

"It's been a strong quarter on the railways, with more and more people choosing to travel by train, despite tough economic times and tight family budgets for many. Passenger numbers continue to rise to levels not witnessed in peacetime Britain since the 1920s, with well over a billion journeys made every year.

"At a time when high petrol prices are a concern to many households, the fact that more people are choosing to travel by train underlines the vital role that rail has to play in the economy's continued recovery.

"The sharp rise in petrol prices will have encouraged many people to look for other ways to get from A to B rather than simply reaching for the car keys. The job of train companies is to continue providing a range of fares to suit all pockets and improving the quality of rail services on offer to the travelling public."

- Figures for journeys come from the LENNON database, the rail industry's central ticketing system, which records around 98% of all journeys.

- Rail accounting is done in 13 periods of four weeks, so "Quarters" 1 to 3 comprise 3 periods each but "Quarter" 4 comprises 4 periods. However, the duration of rail periods 1 and 13 (and hence Q1 and Q4) actually varies slightly from year to year to ensure the year end always fall on 31 March. The data have thus been adjusted for length differently depending on whether the comparison is with the previous or the following year to ensure that the figures compare like with like (eg if the same quarter in each year has different lengths) and for other technical factors. Quarter 4 data comprise periods 11 to 13.

- According to figures from the AA, petrol prices rose from 120.5ppl in mid April 2010 to 135.8ppl in mid April 2011.

- Rail passenger demand forecasting estimates that a 5% increase in petrol prices leads to around a 1% increase in passenger journeys on the rail network, once all other factors (eg economic growth, changes to the cost of rail travel etc) are excluded.

- A total of 1000 respondents, representative of the British public aged 16+, were interviewed online between 25th – 31st March 2011. Of these, the question "In the last two months, have you made a journey by rail that you would normally have made by car, and if so is this because of current petrol prices?" was put to the 794 who said they ever used rail.

[wraz] 06/5/2011 08:44

This trading update today by one of the principal players in the insurance sector refers to some very worrying market trends including bodyshop capacity outstripping demand:-

Helphire - trading update

Helphire Group plc is today issuing its Interim Management Statement in respect of the period from 1 January to 30 April 2011 and announcing that there may be a material discrepancy in the carrying amount of its receivables.

Financial Update

Trading conditions in the Group's market place have been weaker than the Group expected.
In recent weeks the Group has seen a reduction in hire length which affects revenue.

As a result financial performance has been below expectations and the Group now expects to report profits for the year ending 30 June 2011 significantly below market expectations.

Following the substantial completion of the major restructuring of the business and its systems which the new management team and Board have been carrying out since 2009, the Group has just become aware that there may be a material overvaluation in the carrying value of ABI debtors in the financial systems compared with underlying operating systems which, as yet, cannot be fully reconciled.

Preliminary findings are that the overstatement could be approximately £25 million which would represent approximately 15% of the Group's receivables at 31 December 2010.

The Board has engaged KPMG, as an independent firm, to assist the Group in identifying the cause of the issue and its precise quantum. The Group's bankers have also been informed.
The matter does not affect the settlement of claims, which are negotiated on a claim by claim basis, nor the Group's cash position.

The Group remains profitable and cash generative.
Net debt (including fleet financing but excluding unamortised arrangement fees) has been reduced by £6.7 million, from £145.8 million to £139.1 million, in the four month period from 31 December 2010 to 30 April 2011.

Market Conditions

The Association of British Insurers statistics show that the total number of motor claims notified in 2010 decreased by 8% over the prior year, and we believe this decrease has continued in to Q1 2011.

The context of the UK insurance market is that accident frequency rates are falling year on year although insurers are facing increased bodily injury claims.
This latter point is driving up motor premiums and there is evidence that this is pricing out certain sections of the demographic policy base, including 17-25 year olds who represent 15% of the driving population but have 31% of all accidents.

The Group's view, supported by a number of industry surveys, is that motorists are using their cars less, principally due to cost.
The effects of record high petrol prices and the general economic climate have continued to contribute towards lower road miles being driven (down by 2.1% for 2010 vs 2009), resulting
in lower accident rates.
This in turn has led to a shorter than normal hire duration as bodyshop capacity outstrips demand and vehicles are repaired quicker.

In response to the lower trading activity, the Group has not chased market share by lowering the quality of risk acceptance on referrals to gain short term volume.

The Group's Partner base has remained resilient, and in addition to the two new contracts which commenced in October 2010 and January 2011 the Group has also renewed both of its top five accounts which have fallen due in the period.

[spaceparallax] 03/5/2011 22:16

You've identified the concern of some other posters.

[supreme mo] 03/5/2011 22:15

Thinking of buying into this but not sure about the long term growth strategy.

Are they still in the market for acquisitions or are they happy with what they have already got?

Thanks

Jasmine

[spaceparallax] 20/4/2011 17:25

I do the odd bit of clairvoyance but that's my limit, LOL!

[wraz] 20/4/2011 17:21

Sorry thought you had an inside track. It would be good though to know what the current strategy is as it seems to keep changing. One minute its national body repair centres for insurers next its servicing MOT and smart repairs. Cars are needing less and less attention and there's a suggestion that MOTs are going to be every two years after four years. Do they have a clear strategy? My contacts say its all over the place at the moment with more and more total losses and high excesses and increasing insurance premiums prompting customers to not have their cars repaired.

[spaceparallax] 20/4/2011 15:57

't'was me wot suggested it - idle speculation.

[harrogate] 20/4/2011 15:55

When you say "and now a suggestion that they might move into acquisition mode in the SE again" ... Not really ..only from a couple of posters on here!!

[wraz] 20/4/2011 15:49

It would be really good to get some indication of where this is all going. First there are acquisitions well outside their North East homeland giving the impression JCR are going national to compete with NARS, then we have them joining up with a network of other shops where they overlap in some territories and now a suggestion that they might move into acqusitive mode in the South East again. Does anyone know what JCRs big plan is? I'm drawn into investing but really can't make my mind up based on the facts as I see them.

[spaceparallax] 20/4/2011 15:16

Interesting to see that 14K worth of sales equates to a 0.5p share price rise - MM monkey-biz or a Buy order to be filled?

[spaceparallax] 20/4/2011 11:08

Who knows? To establish their mark in that region might be worth initially running a loss there.

[harrogate] 19/4/2011 20:02

I would be very surprised if they did..they must be closing the sites because they haven't got the volumes ..where would JCR get the volumes from outside their current area..It would be madness to do it I think

[wraz] 18/4/2011 17:49

Good call, but does it fit geographically? I hear London is tricky operationally and margins are notoriously thin. If anyone can do it JCR and Barry can.

[spaceparallax] 18/4/2011 16:13

I wonder if JCR might take one of those sites - could offer good geographical spread - IF the price is right.

[wraz] 18/4/2011 15:12

Just announced. Isn't this one of the outfits JCC are tied up with through the National Accident Repair Group

DWS Bodyworks Statement - Closure of 3 sites

Over the past three months, the Executive team has been conducting a detailed and comprehensive review of the DWS Bodyworks business. It has held site meetings and talked to all staff to gain their valuable feedback. The Executive team has met with all its strategic partners with whom DWS Bodyworks has excellent working relationships and they have been exceptionally supportive of the changes it is proposing to make. Everyone the team speaks to believes that the strategic decisions the business is taking will ensure the sustainable position of DWS for its people, its work providers, its suppliers and its investors. This is a business that will deliver the best value for all its stakeholders and is a good sound investment for the future.

In the annual results for the year ended 2009 for DWS Bodyworks (Holdings) and continuing through 2010, there was an overstatement of profits in those periods due to unrecorded liabilities relating to contractual targeted average repair costs. This means that the profits for those two years will need to be restated. Added to this, the continued decline in repairable volumes across the accident repair market overall has had a detrimental effect on the company's financial performance.

As a result, the Executive team has recognised that the existing business structure is not aligned to the realities of the current lean environment. Its key priority is to stabilise the business and ensure it can deliver a sustainable business model which will underpin profitable growth. The Executive team is committed to ensuring the long-term success of the whole company for its employees and customers, and to gain the best value for all its stakeholders.

Regrettably, in order to bring the business back to a firm operating platform, the proposal is to close three sites at Chelmsford, Sutton and Mitcham and to consolidate DWS' head office by reducing staff numbers in finance and the call centre along with de-layering its operational structure by removing the role of Group Operations Manager. Affected staff will be invited to apply for vacancies at other DWS locations.

To deliver on these changes, the Executive team needs to ensure the business is the right size for today's lean environment and that it is based on firm foundations to achieve continual growth through its leading-edge thinking and best practice approach. DWS Bodyworks is committed to continue building on its position in the marketplace as the number one solution for London and the M25 market. To lead the way in best practice and leading-edge thinking around how the business operates to deliver best value at the right cost, and to ensure it remains at the forefront of the accident repair industry.

Paul Pancham, chief executive of DWS Bodyworks, says: "The Executive Team recognises that DWS Bodyworks is an excellent business and with these strategic changes it has a solid long-term future. The recent important new business gains together with potential further new developments will ensure the company is operating from a firm, efficient platform and achieving its growth ambitions. We are about great service, great quality, great value, speed and accuracy, delivered by a fantastic team of committed and dedicated people."

[spaceparallax] 18/4/2011 12:05

Definitely, but the environment is what is is.