Menzies(john) Share Discussion Threads

[buffettjnr] 02/2/2017 10:36

Thanks 1GW. I didn't see that.

[1gw] 02/2/2017 10:12

Peel Hunt nudged their target price up to 630p last week according to N&P.

[1gw] 12/1/2017 09:33

Subdued relative to the recent share price run. Now trading more than 10% ahead of the theoretical ex-rights price on my calcs and about 25% ahead of its post-rights low.

[buffettjnr] 12/1/2017 09:24

Fairly subdued? I would remind you that this is a world leading company on 10x earnings, with growth. If you have anything that comes close to it, I'd love to know.

[1gw] 12/1/2017 09:15

No obvious "sell on the news" evident this morning, despite a fairly subdued update relative to the recent share price growth. It does sound like good news at Gatwick though, which makes a nice change.

Intriguing.

[1gw] 22/12/2016 15:58

And I've just put another tranche through today, which should give me some capacity to buy back if there's any "sell on the news" with a January TU.

[1gw] 21/12/2016 15:07

Just taken a bit of profit, selling about 1/4 of my holding. I'm looking forward to the next trading update, but they've bounced 20% in 2 months and are now well above the theoretical ex-rights price (on my calcs).

[buffettjnr] 17/12/2016 08:19

I am sure this was prepared for. More interestingly, Swissport staff seem to have been underpaid relative to Menzies...

[1gw] 15/12/2016 07:47

This is the CMA announcement referred to in the Menzies rns this morning. It appears to give Menzies 1 week to come up with a "remedy" for Aberdeen airport to avoid a full investigation into the merger. I imagine the easiest remedy to offer would be a promise of the sale of the ASIG operations there to a third party - while possibly not maximising value given the conditions (i.e. a forced sale) that might be a small price to pay to get the acquisition through quickly.

[buffettjnr] 06/12/2016 19:35

Thank you for posting that. I haven't seen those.

[1gw] 06/12/2016 15:04

A couple of new broker ratings recently helping to maintain momentum I think:

5th Dec: Numis resumes with BUY & 650p target
2nd Dec: Berenberg initiates with BUY & 660p target

[1gw] 23/11/2016 15:32

The share price still hasn't really got back to where it was at the time of the rights issue. 615p pre-rights equates to about 543p I think as a theoretical ex-rights price.

Today's trading update is (marginally) encouraging, although I think they've put back the expected acquisition completion date from late 2016 to early 2017. I'm not sure Menzies ever gave the "late 2016" date but I remember seeing it somewhere - perhaps attributed to the seller. But in any case I think there's still scope for the share price to run purely to catch up with where it was before the market indigestion caused by the rights issue. And the longer sterling stays down at these levels, the more sustained the currency translation upside should be.

[sphere25] 23/11/2016 15:09

Big breakout on a good statement:

"The Group continues to trade well and the Board is confident of being marginally ahead of current market expectations. Additionally, the Group continues to benefit from foreign exchange tailwinds which will further enhance the full year result. "

Jumped in for a trade on the back of the breakout and strong book - buyers queuing up.

[1gw] 17/11/2016 16:01

Up, up and away?

[1gw] 31/10/2016 11:18

Could be. It looks like BNY has something to do with Frankfurter Aktienfonds für Stiftungen, the Shareholder Value Management fund.

The FT tear sheet is a bit confusing as it lists SVM and Mellon as holding positions (and also Bank Hapoalim (Schweiz) AG), although with different dates.


The rights prospectus just listed SVM, holding 4.3m shares as of 14th September and expected to go to 5.9m shares if they took up their rights.

The RNS today shows BNY going from 4.8m shares to 8.4m as a result of converting rights.

So perhaps they increased from the 4.3m shown in the prospectus to 4.8m by buying shares and then exercised rights and bought more rights to take them to the 8.4 in today's declaration.

If that is what has happened, and if Kabouter and Lakestreet did take up their rights then that would put the 3 at over 30% between them:
12.1% Kabouter (from prospectus)
10.1% SVM (if the BNY holding is theirs)
8.5% Lakestreet (from prospectus)

[buffettjnr] 31/10/2016 10:21

I think that is a proxy...

[1gw] 31/10/2016 09:30

Well there's a turnup. BNY emerges from nowhere as the biggest declared shareholder (at least pending Kabouter's post-rights disclosure) with 10.1%.

[buffettjnr] 27/10/2016 11:26

Sub 9x PE, I doubt there is better value (in terms of a risk / reward payoff) close to what Menzies is offering.

[1gw] 27/10/2016 11:16

Thank you. It's nice when a trade idea works so cleanly.

I've just bought back a third tranche at 480p, which takes me pretty close to the holding I would have had if I had exercised all my rights. So done for now and hoping for a quick bounce back once the market has finished digesting the rights and starts to focus on the fundamentals again.

[buffettjnr] 27/10/2016 08:23

Excellent work 1gw. A very skilful call you made.

[1gw] 27/10/2016 08:16

Just bought a second tranche back at 479p. I guess this morning's drop is trying to find a home for the shares not taken up in the rights issue.

[1gw] 21/10/2016 11:53

And that's me starting to buy back in with a purchase at 498p. It looks like things have stabilised at this level although there may still be a reasonable rump of lapsed rights to sell on or around 27th.

[1gw] 13/10/2016 16:05

Well, that's me out for the time being. All shares and rights gone. First time since 2008 I haven't owned any.

Hope to be back in before too long once the rights issue noise is out of the way.

[1gw] 12/10/2016 16:22

I know, I still like the story, but wanted to take some portfolio gains anyway and wanted to try the trade. "5 for 14" is a lot of shares coming into existence.

I added a second sell and have ended up selling about 60% of my existing holding (but then have the option of taking up the rights). If the price does move down over the next few weeks I'll look to buy back. If it moves up significantly I may have some regrets, although there are other things I'm looking to buy with at least some of the money anyway.

[buffettjnr] 12/10/2016 16:08

The new chairman will buy rights in the market. I wonder what that will start happening. He has a few hundred thousand to buy according to the prospectus.

Sterling is helping Menzies earnings materially. It's not reflected in the price. 56p of earnings on 540p share price. Sub 10x. Amazing value.