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Investec Bnk 23 | LSE:11IG | London | Medium Term Loan |
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RNS No 4204m SHANGHAI FUND (CAYMAN) LIMITED 23rd September 1997 In the six months to 30th June 1997, the net asset value per share of the Fund appreciated 31.9 per cent. to US$16.59, against a 3.6 per cent. gain in the Hang Seng China Enterprise Index (HSCE) and a 8.5 per cent. return on the CLSA China B index during the period. At the end of June 1997, the Fund was 49.8 per cent. invested in Hong Kong-listed China-related shares, 18.2 per cent. in H-shares and 32.0 per cent. in B-shares. Market and Economic Review In the first half of 1997, the Chinese stock markets were volatile and performance diverged widely between them. The red-chip companies (Chinese companies registered in Hong Kong which typically have Hong Kong management) showed the best performance followed by the Shanghai B-share market, while the H-share and the Shenzhen B-share markets were flat. Strong market liquidity continued to play a key role in the market and "asset injections" and "state enterprise restructuring" were the main themes. Corporate results released during the period were mostly in line with expectations, with the red chips showing the most impressive earnings growth due to continuing acquisitions. The overall China market was quiet at the beginning of the year after a spectacular run in late 1996. Rumours of Deng Xiao Ping's imminent death hit the markets in early February, but the impact was minimal when the official announcement was made. The B-share markets in Shanghai and Shenzhen continued to rally up to May on strong domestic liquidity. The general expectations of further credit easing and continued shifts of bank deposits into the stock market fueled the markets. Backed by the positive mood in the run-up to Hong Kong's return to China, local investors were attracted by the huge discounts between the A-share and B-share markets. However, the B-share market started to correct toward the end of the first half as the authorities took a series of measures to cool down the markets. Meanwhile, the H-shares performance was lacklustre. Investors were concerned by the 1996 earnings results and the uncertainty over earnings prospects. Despite high valuations, the red chips' performance was the best among China stocks. The rally on red chips was supported by improving macro conditions in China, better corporate management, and continued asset acquisitions. However, the sector experienced some pull-back after the authorities in Beijing announced restrictions on listings and asset injections into red chip companies by mainland parents. In the six-month period under review, the Manager reduced the Fund's B-share exposure in favour of H-shares and red-chip companies. The Manager considered the liquidity driven rally in the B-share markets in 1996 had over extended valuations. Given the determination of the Beijing authorities to cool the mainland markets, B-shares were likely to underperform. Meanwhile, the investment focus was on infrastructures, conglomerates and transportations, but the Manager was cautious on the petrochemicals. The Fund became fully invested as of the end of the period. The Chinese economy continued to show robust growth on export recovery in the first half of the year. Exports rose 25.8 per cent. year on year in the first quarter and growth this year is expected to surpass last year's. Inflation has been brought under control thanks to the austerity program of 1993. Retail Price Index (RPI) fell sharply to 2.6 per cent. in the first quarter of 1997 while Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew only 5.2 per cent. The steady decline in inflation over the past two years is due to falling industrial product prices and, more importantly, an abundance of foodstuffs. Rising food prices were considered the major culprit in China's high inflation environment four years ago. Obviously, unemployment has replaced inflation as the primary concern for China's monetary policy makers. In the coming years, the driving strength of the Chinese economy is expected to come from the infrastructure sector rather than the traditional consumption or export sectors. Demand for better infrastructure facilities to ensure stable long-term economic growth matches perfectly the urgent need for job creation. Since infrastructure investment is typically labour intensive, it is a good way to absorb the surplus labour force. Consequently, China's next wave of credit easing appears to favour infrastructure. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) has been very reluctant to lower interest rates further recently despite falling inflation. Concerns over new liquidity flowing into the stock market rather than the real economy is seen as the primary reason. However, there is evidence that the banks are giving easier credit to infrastructure projects while taking a more cautious attitude to the manufacturing sector due to concerns on bad debts. The Chinese Government is also keen to encourage mass housing for China. This could generate a huge demand for domestic consumption, much like television sets and washing machines did in the 1980s, as well as absorb a big portion of the surplus labour. The Government is currently in the process of establishing a mortgage market. Mortgage loan guidelines are expected to be revealed soon, followed by the launching of a nation-wide mortgage bank. Since the implementation of the austerity measures back in 1993, China has successfully brought inflation down to 6.1 per cent. in 1996 and 2.2 per cent. in the first 4 months of this year. In the years to come, China's economy is expected to maintain a growth rate of 8 per cent. or even higher with only mild inflation. The Renminbi is expected to remain stable in the near term. Foreign direct investment by multinational corporations and overseas-listed Chinese companies is still strong and should offset the reduction in ther current account surplus this year. Outlook Over the balance of the year, we expect the current economic recovery and stable political environment in Beijing to support the existing positive market tone. A number of important forthcoming events are likely to boost market sentiment: 1) the 15th Party Congress in China and the selection of a new Prime Minister; 2) the meeting between President Jiang Zemin and President Bill Clinton at the end of the year; 3) China's progress towards entry in the World Trade Organisation (WTO); and 4) lower banking reserve requirements. The market will continue to focus on red chip companies, which are strongly backed by their mainland parents and should benefit from further asset injections. Meanwhile, the government's new policy of encouraging the largest and most profitable companies to acquire their smaller counterparts will benefit the H-shares. Going into the second half, we like the B-share market and believe values will once again resurface after the recent correction. Our strategy is to accumulate the B-shares while market sentiment remains low. Excess liquidity continues to persist in the domestic system and the B-share markets will benefit in the event of a reduction in banking reserve requirements. Bertrand P Viriot 23rd September, 1997 Interim Report (unaudited) for the six months ended 30th June, 1997 six months ended year ended 30th June, 30th June, 31 st December, 1997 1996 1996 US$ '000 US$ '000 US$ '000 Income Investment income 171 244 402 Interest received 7 17 35 178 261 437 Investment, management and administrative expenses (223) (287) (647) Loss on ordinary activities before taxation (45) (26) (210) Taxation - (5) - Loss on ordinary activities attributable to Participating Shareholders (45) (31) (210) Loss per Participating Share US$(0.03) US$(0.02) US$(0.15) US$ '000 US$ '000 US$ '000 Net assets 22,427 17,278 17,831 Number of Shares 1,351,995 1,766,000 1,416,900 Net asset value per Participating Share US$16.59 US$9.78 US$12.58 Notes: 1. The activity of the Fund is that of investment primarily in securities quoted on the Securities Markets of Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen. It is not the intention of the Directors that dividends be distributed to shareholders. 2. All figures in this report are stated in US Dollars. Income and expenditure has been converted at the exchange rate prevailing at the end of each relevant period. 3. The Fund's net assets are shown at market valuation. 4. The figures for the year ended 31st December, 1996 are extracted from the audited financial statements. 5. This interim report is being sent to shareholders and copies will be available at the registered office of the Fund. Investments at 30th June. 1997 Classification and distribution of the Fund's net assets as at 30th June, 1997 Investments % Transportation 30.62 Machinery & Engine 14.71 Utilities 8.74 Multi Industry 7.63 Metals 7.28 Conglomerates 6.86 Banking 5.86 Textiles and Apparel 5.70 Electrical Electronics 4.49 Chemicals 4.17 Consumer Goods 2.63 Telecommunications 2.60 Real Estate 2.15 Construction China 1.71 Household Appliances 1.50 Forestry Products 1.42 Food & Household Products 0.94 Industrials 0.73 109.74 Cash and net amounts payable (9.74) 100.00 The Fund's ten largest investments Valuation of holding at 30th June, 1997 Net Assets Company Listing Activity US$ '000 % Cosco Pacific Ltd (H) Transportation 2,018 9.00 China Merchants Hai Hong Holdings (H) Transporation 1,537 6.85 Inner Mongolia Erdos Cashmere Products B Shares (Si) Textiles & Apparel 1,278 5.70 Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd (H) Multi Industry 1,275 5.69 Union Bank of Hong Kong Ltd (H) Banking 1,247 5.56 Guangzhou Investment Co. Ltd (H) Conglomerates 857 3.82 China Light Power (H) Utilities 805 3.59 Changchai Co. 'B' Shares (SN) Machinery & Engine 727 3.24 Qingling Motors Co. Ltd. 'H' Shares (H) Transportation 723 3.22 Citic Pacific Ltd. (H) Conglomerates 681 3.04 11,148 49.71 H Hong Kong Listing Sn Shenzhen Listing Si Shanghai Listing Investments at 30th June, 1997 Value at 30th June, % of 1997 Shareholders' Listing US$'000 Equity Transportation Cosco Pacific Ltd. (H) 2,018 China Merchants Hai Hong Holdings (H) 1,537 Qingling Motors Co. Ltd. 'H' Shares (H) 723 Shanghai Dahzhong Taxis Shareholding 'B' Shares (Si) 550 Hainan Airlines Co. Ltd. (H) 536 Anhui Expressway Co. Ltd. 'H' Shares (H) 481 Continental Mariner Investment Co. Ltd. (H) 325 Guangdong Provincial Expressway 'B' Shares (Sn) 285 Gzi Transport (H) 213 Tienstsin Marine Shipping 'B' Shares (Si) 202 Gzi Transport WAR (H) 1 6,871 30.62 Machinery & Engine Changchai Co. 'B' Shares (Sn) 727 First Tractor Co. Ltd. (H) 620 Wiefu Fuel Injection 'B' Shares (Sn) 593 Shenzhen Fangda Industry 'B' Shares (Sn) 424 Northeast Electrical T. TM. M. 'H' Shares (H) 300 Dongfang Electrical Machinery Co. Ltd. 'H' Shares (H) 258 Shanghai Diesel Engine Co. 'B' Shares (Si) 378 3,300 14.71 Utilities China Light Power (H) 805 Guangdong Electric Power Dev. 'B' Shares (Sn) 498 Beijing Datang Power Generation 'H' Shares (H) 277 Huaneng Power Intl ADR (N) 260 Heilongjiang Electric Power 'B' Shares (Si) 120 1,960 8.74 Multi Industry Shanghai Industrial Holdings Ltd. (H) 1,275 Beijing Enterprises Holdings (H) 315 Min Xin Holdings (H) 121 1,711 7.63 Metals Oriental Metals (Holdings) Co. (H) 608 Jiangxi Copper (H) 541 Bengang Steel Plates 'B' Shares (Sn) 484 1,633 7.28 H Hong Kong Listing Sn Shenzhen Listing Si Shanghai Listing N New York Listing Investments at 30th June, 1997 Value at 30th June, %of 1997 Shareholders' Listing US$'000 Equity Conglomerates Guangzhou Investment Co. Ltd. (H) 857 Citic Pacific Ltd. (H) 681 1,538 6.86 Banking Union Bank of Hong Kong Ltd. (H) 1,247 International Bank of Asia Ltd. (H) 66 1,313 5.86 Textiles & Apparel Inner Mongolia Erdos Cashmere Products 'B' Shares (Si) 1,278 5.70 Electrical Electronics Founder Hong Kong Ltd (H) 406 Innovative International (Holdings) Ltd. (H) 601 1,007 4.49 Chemicals Zchenhai Refining & Chemical Co. Ltd. 'H' Shares (H) 515 Chiwan Petroleum Supply Base Co. Ltd. 'B' Shares (SA) 289 Beijing Yanhua Petrochemical Co. 'H' Shares (H) 132 936 4.17 Consumer Goods Chaifa Holdings Ltd. (H) 404 Lamex Holdings Ltd. (H) 187 591 2.63 Telecommunications Eastern Communications 'B' Shares (Si) 583 2.60 Real Estate China Resources Beijing Land Ltd. (H) 482 2.15 Construction Cheung Kong Infrastructure Holdings (H) 209 Shewhen Express 'H' Shares (H) 174 383 1.71 Household Appliances Guangdong Kelon Electrical Holdings 'H' Shares (H) 334 1.50 H Hong Kong Listing Sn Shenzhen Listing Si Shanghai Listing N New York Listing Investments at 30th June 1997 Value at 30th June, %of 1997 Shareholders' Listing US$'000 Equity Forestry Products Shangdong Chenming Paper Holdings 'B' shares (Sn) 318 1.42 Food & Household Products Ng Fung Hong (H) 174 Shanghai Daijiang Group Stock Co Ltd 'B' Shares (Si) 38 212 0.94 Industrials Shanghai Type + Rubber 'B' Shares (Si) 162 0.73 Total Investments 24,612 109.74 Net Current Liabilities (2,185) (9.74) Total Net Assets 22,427 100.00 H Hong Kong Listing Sn Shenzhen Listing Si Shanghai Listing N New York Listing END IR EQFFLDKKFBKD
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