Invesco Uk Property Income Trust Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 15/2/2012 12:03

ASMO - sorry, of course, I forgot!! Just checked back and we corresponded on the IFD thread just 3weeks ago - so ignore above....but will leave for others.

[skyship] 15/2/2012 11:56

ASMO - yes, surely better value elsewhere - IFD still the favourite & getting going at long last. I'm sure you hold in any event, but perhaps for others IFD are still offered @ 34.25p for a yield of 10.3% and an EPRA NAV discount of 38.5%. LTV is 43% and no refinancing due until mid-2014.

Schroders now taken over the Investment Manager role and giving the Company its name, so that it will soon be renamed Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust (SREI) - plenty of info and charts over on the IFD thread...

[asmodeus] 15/2/2012 11:22

Is there any point in hanging on to these? I am showing a huge loss, but what's left might do better elsewhere. Is anybody else selling?

[goldenhorse] 15/2/2012 07:33

Update just steady as she goes... though there may be a crumb of comfort in the like for like valuations between 6 months ago and now...

[flyingswan] 14/2/2012 09:28

This may start to lift the property market in general thus helping Commercial Property. IMHO:

First-time buyers spent £2.3bn getting on the property ladder in December – a 10% rise on the previous month – in an attempt to take advantage of the stamp duty holiday which ends next month. The Council of Mortgage Lenders said yesterday 18,700 loans were made to new homeowners in the last four weeks of 2011. The CML said it expected that trend to accelerate before the stamp duty exemption – which allows first-time buyers to avoid the 1% duty on homes costing less than £250,000 – ends at the start of March. It said the proportion of properties costing less than £250,000 snapped up by first-time buyers grew from 50% to 53% during December, The Independent reports.

[goldenhorse] 14/2/2012 02:05

See you're in CRND too - just can't bring myself to pull the trigger there, feels too risky!! I do want a small cap goldie but looking more favourably at HMB since its further down the development track (and seriously unloved!!)

[flyingswan] 13/2/2012 22:30

GoldenHorse... I am expecting Hyper Inflation to kick in before 2014, like it did in 1973, were property prices increased 10 fold in a couple of years.

I thought post 1153 was very informed; you do great research.

[goldenhorse] 13/2/2012 20:26

Looks like it's you and me here, FS - what do you make of the thoughts in 1153?

[flyingswan] 13/2/2012 10:15

... So heavily affected was one trust – Invesco Property Income – that in 2011, the trust, managed by Rory Morrison, restructured its debt and altered its investment strategy. The trust is now expected to wind down in 2014.

The investment objective was changed to reflect the fact that the trust was widening its portfolio to continental Europe, with a particular focus on acquiring and managing assets in markets such as France and Germany, where properties can be bought and sold with relative ease.

All is not bad, however. Last week, for example, saw the £1bn F&C Commercial Property Trust (FCPT) successfully raise £15m in an issue of new shares. The trust listed them on the London Stock Exchange on February 1 at 103.41p - a 3 per cent premium to net asset value (NAV).

The fund has traded at a premium over the past year. The company claims its level of dividend, which created a yield of 5.8 per cent based on the share price at the close on February 1, is attractive to investors.

In fact, since the market bottomed in March 2009, property investment trusts have staged a remarkable comeback...

[flyingswan] 09/2/2012 11:40

I think this may be the reason for the drop. But it is the time of year were people rarely move. I think in the coming months we will see more positive interest in Commercial Property. I am treating this as a Buying Opportunity:

UK commercial property performance weakens
Tuesday, 07 February 2012 09:39 George Bailey

Despite a solid finish to 2011, UK commercial property performance weakened slightly in January, with total returns of 0.3%, down from 0.5% in December, according to CBRE's latest Monthly Index.

While Central London witnessed a values fall of 0.1% in January, Retail Warehouses bucked the wider trend as values remained flat (total returns of 0.4%). January also saw office values fall by 0.2% in line with both the industrial and retail sectors.

Amid a weakening occupier market, All Property rental values fell by 0.1% in January. Industrials were the worst affected, with rental values falling 0.3%, while All Retail and All Offices saw rental values fall 0.1% last month.

Nick Parker, Senior Analyst of Economics & Forecasting at CBRE, said: "There was some encouraging transactional activity that took place in December, amounting to c£5.5billion of commercial real estate investment in the final month, taking the 2011 total just shy of £34billion. December's glut was predominantly thanks to overseas investors filling their boots with UK property, in a market where buyers currently hold the cards. Over the next 12 months we foresee international investors group remaining a key component of the UK property investment, as they have increasingly become over the past 10 years.

"This month's overall property performance isn't surprising; sentiment has been weakening in line with the global economic slowdown since the middle of last year, and while it is a weak start to 2012, performance this year will be largely dictated by how events unfold in the euro zone."

January 2012 UK Monthly Index snapshot:
* All Property total returns were 0.3% in January, with capital values down 0.2%;
* Offices and industrials saw a mild outperformance over retails this month, with total returns of 0.3% vs 0.2% in retail;
* Central London offices saw values fall by 0.1% in January;
* Rest of UK and Outer London / M25 offices continued to see weak performance, with values down by 0.4% in both markets this month;
* Retail warehouse marginally outperformed shops with values flat compared with down 0.1%. Shopping centres saw values fall 0.5% this month;
* Rental values fell by 0.1% over the month, a slight deterioration on last month;
* Equivalent yields were unchanged over the month at 6.6%.

[goldenhorse] 19/1/2012 22:23

Ouch! - I feel your pain...

I wouldn't despair totally though, I've got 400k in the bottom drawer at about 2.5p and I'm happy to hold on to the end but you must bear in mind that I'm an optimist!

Worst case, it gets delisted (and the recent documents have said they are keeping listing under review...)

But the good thing is the simplicity of the share since the reset of the loans and the investment objective. It is now a straightforward, highly geared play on non-prime commercial property price recovery.

If the macro clouds clear and it gets to be believed that the world won't end this year, it is very possible that non-prime property could go on a rebound run and this sector could come out of deep freeze...

In terms of IPI specifically, the recent valuation statement was very encouraging on occupancy levels (even though valuations continued to fall) and shows the continued track record of good asset management. This is so important because it:

1) Keeps the trust will within its new covenants (good headroom on both valuation and interest cover), and
2) Keeps the portfolio in good shape for if (when?) the upturn comes.

No more acquisitions = no new risk, just sit tight, manage the shop and wait about 18 months before starting aggressive disposals towards a wind-up in 2014.

It's a very straightforward plan.

The equity is worthless at the moment given the external market, but the numbers are interesting given that there is (as things stand) a two-year payoff horizon.

153m shares

192mGBP debt

192mGBP valuation

Say our portfolio realises 10% over the present valuation, that's 19.2m...

Assuming a big haircut of costs (which always seems to accompany these situations) of 25%, there could be c. 15m to distribute to shareholders - that's 10p per share.

You could say that 10% is optimistic, but the most recent disposal of the Pegasus building yielded 46% over March '11 valuation. Why? Because of a new 7year lease - the result of effective asset management. 46% across the board (which is ridiculous!) would take us to about 65p per share!

None of this takes into account possible benefits or downsides that would come from a strengthening Euro (if the world doesn't end) with respect to debt and valuations - I've not done the detailed calculations on this, would appreciate it if someone else has..?

So I don't think this is a zombie... it's in a coma, which is a quite different thing.

Have I got the wrong end of this stick?

GH

[asmodeus] 19/1/2012 16:21

Know how you feel, ExREME2! I bought in 2008 too - at 25.68 p ! Then "averaged down" (mistake) in 2009,at what seemed to be bargain prices, so my ave bp is now "only" 8.3p!

[exreme2] 19/1/2012 15:40

I'm not getting excited. The price will need to go up by a lot more than 42% before I get anywhere near to recovering the £5K I foolishly "invested" in IPI so in March 2008.

[flyingswan] 19/1/2012 13:12

IPI Up 42% today for some reason.

Noticed this post from yesterday from another BB:

Sharp improvement in UK vacancy rates from 9.4% to 6.5%.

European vacancy rate roughly unchanged.

Overall useful improvement from 12.1% to 10.5%.

Gross yield up a touch to 9.4% from 9.2%.

Average lease term down a tad from 3.6 to 3.5 years.

LTV down a touch from 99.2% to 100.2%

Interest rate cover down from 146.7% to 142.6% but still healthily within the covenant.

Lets hope for continued improvements in the leasing efforts, then valautions will be forced to follow..

Maybe one quarter at last somewhere down the line thre will be good news...we sure are due some...

I think it relates to this RND:

[kramch] 12/1/2012 11:12

.. of which capital growth was just 2%. Main outperformers were offices and retail in Central London, rest of UK 3.3%, with industrial capital values marginally down.

K.

[flyingswan] 12/1/2012 09:53

8.1% rise in Commercial Property throughout 2011:

[flyingswan] 14/12/2011 16:09

Commercial Property take-up looking brighter:

[bsg] 29/11/2011 15:48

Clutching at straws comes to mind !

[flyingswan] 29/11/2011 13:34

I thought I detected the beginning of an up-trend:

[rj allen] 16/11/2011 17:42

The only thing that has increased are the management expenses!

[flyingswan] 15/11/2011 09:53

Shareholders in Britain's commercial property stocks got some good news last week.

Several landlords have just reported on their recent progress. Market values for their properties have climbed over the last six months.

That means the asset-backing behind their shares has improved. So shareholders can look forward to higher dividend payments, too.

So should commercial property shares now be part of your portfolio? Or are there better bets elsewhere?...

[flyingswan] 08/11/2011 10:02

UK commercial property sector affected by slow economic performance
MONDAY, 07 NOVEMBER 2011

Slow economic performance in the UK has been passed on to values in the commercial property sector through declining occupier demand, according to the latest IPD UK Quarterly Property Index.

At the all property level capital growth slowed to just 0.3% and total return to 1.8%, the index shows, due to the stagnating economy, increasing inflation, austerity measures and general uncertainty about the UK's ability to avoid recession.

These factors have combined to result in rental growth tailing off in the third quarter to just 0.1%, while straying further into negative territory for both the retail and industrial sectors, both at -0.2%

However, investors are still coming into the market, viewing it as a 'relatively' safe haven during very uncertain times, said Malcolm Frodsham, research director at IPD.

'Purchase activity increased in the third quarter by 14.6%, despite fears that too much stock was becoming available, particularly in Central London. Buyers are not just high net worth individuals and international investors, various UK funds have also been investing, chasing the now all important income return,' he explained...

[flyingswan] 17/10/2011 11:58

I posted the article to give the CBRE Index results for commercial property for September, it is not my fault it focuses on London. I think the main message was the 0.6% Growth. As I feel London will lead the regions out of recession and I am starting to see Green Shoots. IMHO

I did add the Europe link to try to keep you all happy.

[investor_tp] 17/10/2011 11:50

FlyingSwan: you keep spamming these articles, so I can't help but wonder: how much of the portfolio is made up of Central London offices in your mind? And how much of the portfolio do you think is made up of "prime" property?

[tell sid] 17/10/2011 11:38

looks like its bottomed.