Intl Power Share Discussion Threads

[praipus] 12/1/2011 10:35

Not completely got enough ECWO to sink a battleship IPR is one of their top ten and hold PUT and CALL options round the outside incase of a large move either way.

[jeffian] 12/1/2011 10:30

Everybody sold and moved on?

[jeffian] 11/1/2011 23:06

Hmmmm. Gone a bit dull recently, even on a perky day for the market.

[jeffian] 31/12/2010 15:36

Probably not before July 2011, Praipus. The Closing Date for the transaction is described as "no later than 30 June 2011"; Admission of the newco's shares on the LSE is on the Closing Date; the Special Dividend Record Date is "as soon as reasonably practicable following Admission"; the payment date is "within 14 days of the Special Dividend record date".

[praipus] 31/12/2010 15:11

What has happened to the 92p special div?

[luminoso] 23/12/2010 19:11

Pretty much agree with your thoughts, jacks13.
I couldn't be bothered to wait for 500p cum-dividend, if it comes at all, so I jumped ship today as my profit was greater than the divvy will be.
Happy enough with that.
No longer really interested in the story here.
Good luck all and genuinely hope there is more upside for those who hold.
I am off to murkier waters. FTSE 100 companies are not really my thing !

[jacks13] 23/12/2010 15:40

luminoso - 1012
You could be right.

With GDF holding 70% of the new company they will have the deciding vote for or against all proposals regarding dividends, board appointments etc. They will have a very firm grip on the company's prospects and performance.

GDF will have a simple task of acquiring the remaining 30% of the shares in the enlarged company without materially affecting the prevailing share price.

The quiet off-market accumulational of 15% or so of the shares at a modest premium to the prevailing market price will be enough to allow them to de-list the company and the remaining shareholders will have either to choose to stick with the 'private' company or take what they're offered. If GDF get to a holding of 90% they can force remaining shareholders to sell anyway. With GDF's impregnable grip on the company no counter-bid can be tabled.

Given this situation I don't see the market getting too excited about the company's prospects so in my view there won't be huge share price growth regardless of performance.

GDF can ensure that dividend policy is kept conservative (I don't expect any improvement on the current 40% payout ratio), so that any improvement in earnings will serve to strengthen 'their' balance sheet.

In the absence of share price growth the only attraction of the share will be for income funds and those private investors who want the bond-like characteristics that it will offer.

Risk of capital loss should be small, likewise though capital appreciation will also be modest. The share should yield 4% or 5% over the next couple of years and there should be a modest take-out premium of 10% or 15% in due course.

Those are my thoughts and they may prove wide of the mark but with them in mind I've yet to decide whether to stay in, get out or reinvest the special dividend.

If the share price were to get anywhere near 500p cum-dividend I'd sell, but your figure of 450p is probably more realistic and at that level I'm prepared to await developments.

[luminoso] 23/12/2010 09:58

glass ceiling at 450p ?

[jeffian] 22/12/2010 15:18

jacks13,
No worries.
Actually, I agree your point. I'm in the same boat myself in respect of some IPR shares held in trust for my children, where Capital Gains are taxed both at a higher rate and lower threshold whereas income is taxed at their (low) personal rate.

[jacks13] 22/12/2010 13:53

jeffian
I'm not suggesting that the fund managers' would be seeking a profit but rather that they would be happy to take a loss in capital in exchange for the 'equivalent' in income. They have until the share goes ex-dividend to do it.
It occurs to me that a fund manager who is a bit light on income, due to say having held BP, is to try to bring a shedload of cash into his fund to rescue his performance (and bonus).
Edit- My apologies jeffian, I'd assumed your post was in response to mine!

[optomistic] 22/12/2010 13:42

I did say "very late" lol

[jeffian] 22/12/2010 13:37

But it's received shareholder approval now. "Late in the day" is putting it a bit mildly!

[jacks13] 22/12/2010 13:31

Does anyone with industry knowledge know whether or not it is likely that income-fund managers will be buying into IPR cum-dividend, in effect swapping capital for income.
What are the dynamics that drive the decision, is there a significant incentive for them to do so?

[optomistic] 22/12/2010 13:10

Another interested party......?
Getting very late in the day but who knows what might happen in the last few weeks.

[jeffian] 22/12/2010 12:55

"anything couls still happen"

Really? Like what?

[acornoptical] 22/12/2010 12:41

long time to go then and anything couls still happen

[luminoso] 22/12/2010 10:54

Hmmm... wonder where share price will be at the end of those 14 days !!

[jeddicat] 22/12/2010 07:45

Just had a quick look at the 'prospectus', no dates of importance, they are however quoting 2011 for closure, before June 2011!

Dividend (92p), payday 14 days after Record Date!

[jacks13] 21/12/2010 19:03

Penny Chalmers is not a board member;


She along with a number of other senior managers cash in at every opportunity, retaining only sufficient shares to comply with their contract of employment. They are required to hold shares proportionate to their salary. Details are in the Annual Report somewhere.
Selling their free issue 'incentive' shares may be financial naivety or prudence on their part, take your pick.

[sailing john] 21/12/2010 18:48

They are selling because of circumstances, takeover and tax considerations rather than any inside knowledge about business prospects. They certainly won't have much idea about the value of the combined business

As a general rule directors of large companies are very poor at valuing the future worth of their businesses. Whilst they are very good at running them they are not experinced in valuation which has as much to do with market perception and macro economics as the fundamentals of the individual business. Several Directors sold last week at circa 430 - we are now at 445!
SJ

[jacks13] 21/12/2010 18:34

She's a serial seller. I wouldn't read anything of significance into it.
p.s. last peaked, 01-Nov-2007 488.50p

[optomistic] 21/12/2010 15:06

That's another director selling! Penny Chalmers 46,977

[jhe] 21/12/2010 15:05

Sorry guys - definately the wrong thread. Too many threads open at the same time.

[optomistic] 21/12/2010 14:54

Never mind about JHE, maybe he started on the 'sauce' early and got a bit mixed up.
Back to IPR, market is firm today but good to see this up move (hope it holds) Last major peak was around 500p, doubtfull we will get there before the payoff but it would be nice to see us over 450 before the event.