International Marketing & Sales Share Discussion Threads

[diogenesj] 06/3/2006 09:38

And today: buys 70% of IMCA, Moscow based Research Agency, $1.4m in cash and shares.

[diogenesj] 01/3/2006 09:46

Announced today: appoints new director of acquisitions; buys in the remaining minority stakes in two majority owned companies, One2Remember (events management) and Sundance Systems (software), for a total of $200k paid in shares.

[diogenesj] 09/2/2006 19:15

Hmm, well, I'm not sure that we can. I've now updated the forecasts in the header to include Canaccord's forecasts for the entire period 2005 to 2009. Obviously they are very speculative, and assume a continuation of the current Russian consumer boom, rapid growth in below-the-line marketing expenditure, IMSG's continued ability to take market share in a growing market, constant Russian inflation and constant rouble-dollar-sterling exchange rates. Not much of this can be relied upon, so I think we have to say that the shares are currently fairly, perhaps optimistically, priced at 252p. That may still look cheap in a year or two if everything goes to plan, but it's perhaps more of a gamble than an investment.

(Edited)

[chester] 09/2/2006 06:47

Thanks DJ.

[diogenesj] 08/2/2006 10:37

Mr Utochkin has now kindly sent me the Canaccord note of 27 January. It is 36 pages, and I am out most of today, so I won't have time to digest it before this evening. Canaccord's recommendation is Buy (at 201.5p), fair value 227.5p (based on a FY06 PE of 20.6x, some sort of gesture towards discounted cash flow, and comparison with a basket of Russian consumer-related stocks).

I did say the shares were not cheap. When I've read the note properly, I'll summarise it here. It may be that we rampers can justify a higher price target. :-)

[chester] 07/2/2006 14:01

ok, thanks.

[diogenesj] 07/2/2006 11:53

No answer to my email to the chairman, chester (not a particularly good sign). I have now written to Alexander Utochkin, said on the website to be in charge of investor relations, and we shall see whether he can do better.

[chester] 07/2/2006 08:31

Joined you this morning DJ, buying a few at 251p

[diogenesj] 31/1/2006 16:37

I'll let you know, B: nothing so far. 67% it is (see header).

However, we do have a trading statement today:

2H significantly stronger as expected, results for the year will be in line with market expectations (see header for those).

First significant tobacco industry client signed (cough, cough).

"Trade currently strong, encouraged by progress made since Admission," Gregory Thain.

Results to be announced on 31 March (damn, that's the day I go on holiday).

[broadwood] 31/1/2006 14:56

Dio - be interested to hear if you get a reply.

Its the 67% p.a growth forecast that attracted me(speaking from memory).

Still no stopping it.

[nurdin] 31/1/2006 10:38

Ah..silly me

[diogenesj] 31/1/2006 09:30

See the rather useful and well-composed header, nurdin. :-)

[nurdin] 31/1/2006 06:26

Looks like they will do 6p for 05,PE of 40 on my guesstimate.A bit rich on first sight but would like to see some brokers forecasts.

[affc21] 30/1/2006 23:50

From the Intl Marketing&Sales First Day Of Dealings note:



* Since 2002 the EBITDA of the IMSG group ("Group") has grown at a rate in
excess of 100% per annum. The Group has been profitable since 2000.

* IMSG's long term goal is to become a leading international marketing
services agency, operating in emerging markets such as Russia, CIS
countries, eastern European countries and India.

* The Group's clients include multinational and Russian companies operating
in FMCG, telecommunications, retail trade, banking and finance, automotive,
consumer electronics and pharmaceutical industries.

[affc21] 30/1/2006 23:39

You know this could be huge,the market that they are in,which I presume any western company in need of any media services would feel more secure (and not get ripped off) in the knowledge that they are dealing with a western media company specialising within Russia.Lot's of bad press with some of these Russian companies,if that's what we should call them.

Sorry DiogenesJ,as you are already aware after your resaerch,but just dawned on me.

[diogenesj] 30/1/2006 23:22

Hi, affc. The recent jump is probably due to the favourable mention in an article in last week's IC on 'Juicy Profits' from aggressive growth stocks. (The 'Juicy Profits' were a reference to one of the 'growth stocks' in question, ACHL, the Chinese orange farm.) There's a good chance of a better buying opportunity when the tip effect wears off, I think, and I may top up myself if one presents itself.

[affc21] 30/1/2006 23:10

Nice find DiogenesJ,hope you have more luck than myself (not this company) in getting the brokers note.

Being in the Russian market is a major plus point in my view,having been in Sibir Energy myself,but can at times be very turbulent for the share price (at least it was for Sibir Energy),although tottaly different business model.

And a recent IPO,now that I do find attractive (like a moth to a light).

Hoping it does well for you,but any sell off and I just might grab a few.

On my watch list for now.

[diogenesj] 30/1/2006 22:09

Well done yourself, broadwood. It's very important to keep reminding ourselves that even that derided organ the IC is not always wrong. :-)

Here is the email I have sent to Greg Thain, chairman. I'll let you know if I get a reply.

Dear Mr Thain,

As a small shareholder in IMS, I hope you won't mind me saying that small companies, especially newly floated ones, depend more than most on private investors and need to keep them as informed as possible. Many do make their brokers' research notes available on their websites - here's one very successful example:

Would you consider doing the same, please? And in the meantime, could you ask someone to send me a copy of the research note already issued by your brokers Canaccord Adams? I've asked Canaccord for it, and been fobbed off with the silly reply that they won't send it because I don't live in Canada. Yours is an Irish company quoted in London on Aim and operating in Russia and the emerging economies, and information about it is only available to Canadian residents. Forgive me for mentioning it, but this doesn't sound like a well-thought-out investor relations policy to me!

Yours sincerely,

Diogenes

[broadwood] 30/1/2006 21:41

Dio - well done . Bought some Friday - they;ve been rocketing ever since. Thanks to IC.

[diogenesj] 30/1/2006 21:35

Tried to get a copy of the Canaccord note last week, but I was fobbed off with this reply from Canaccord (silly b*ggers, it's their job to promote their client companies):

Dear Mr. Diogenes,

Thank you for your interest in Canaccord.

Our research materials are available on a trial basis to non-clients who reside in Canada. As you have indicated that you are not a Canadian resident, I cannot give you access at this time.

Sincerely,

Bethany Seto
Canaccord Research Support

I'll try the company now and see if they are more forthcoming.

[diogenesj] 30/1/2006 21:32

Nice 6.9% rise today. Even less cheap now, but it's going in the right direction. And quiet threads do often turn out to be the best.

[diogenesj] 30/1/2006 15:00

I think it's time we had a thread for this media agency, which specialises in marketing to Russia, the CIS and emerging markets generally (currently 97% Russia, 2.5% Kazakhstan, balance Ukraine, Latvia and Hungary, but it has wider ambitions). It's Irish, it operates in Russia, it trades in roubles but accounts in US$, and it's not cheap any more, but according to the I.C. Canaccord Capital expect earnings to grow at 67% compound over the next 5 years, and I say that's not be sneezed at.

Key clients include such well-known names as Mars, Gillette, Diageo, L'Oreal, Danone, Tchibo, Beiersdorf, Hoffmann LaRoche, PepsiCo and Sun Interbrew.

Canaccord's forecasts (PEs calculated at the price on 9/2/06, 252p):

Yr to 12 December:
2005 ptp £2.82m eps 6.69p (+159.30%) div 0.00p PE 37.67
2006 ptp £4.65m eps 11.06p (+65.32%) div 0.55p PE 22.78
2007 ptp £7.71m eps 17.90p (+61.84%) div 0.90p PE 14.08
2008 ptp £10.45m eps 24.13p (+34.38%) div ? PE 10.44
2009 ptp £14.82m eps 34.22p (+41.82%) div ? PE 7.36

Starting from earnings per share of 2.58p in 2004, the compound rate of growth over the 5 years is a little over 67% (but the figure is a bit misleading since it starts with a one-off 159% jump in 2005).

Company website:

Some basic financial information here:

Announcement of first day dealings on Aim, with much background information, here: