Hsbc Bk.26 Discussion Threads

[hpcg] 14/9/2016 10:50

Lots of indecision on oil. I'm waiting for OPEC and the FED.

[ochs] 12/9/2016 21:13

Hi chaps, any more views on this and 5OIL? It's been an interesting ride these past 6 months or so. I currently have a small holding in both the long and short - the way the oil price moves you can make money by holding both, so long as you pick the correct time to sell of course!

[my retirement fund] 03/5/2016 19:55

Good call imo

[hpcg] 03/5/2016 16:31

Bought some today. I think we get a bit of a multi-day sell off, but not anything too dramatic.

[hpcg] 22/4/2016 08:39

I have looked through the prospectus' for both and I think the life is 10 years from launch last year. Conventionally though they just re-base. TVIX did this last year.

Yep, 12 April 2025:

[my retirement fund] 22/4/2016 08:27

Hpcg do you know the lifespan of this instrument? At some point its going to become too low not simply if oil rises further but contango and fund running costs and charges ?

[my retirement fund] 18/4/2016 10:42

Not sure such an opportunity will occur again though. I think brent will find a mean of 50 medium term.Such a level still infers Enquest shareholders getting wiped out and bond holders agreeing to a far longer repayment plan imo.Im not minded to sell my ENQ1s at the present level and getting paid handsomely for holding them takes away the stress.

[my retirement fund] 18/4/2016 10:29

Closed out first thing at 1.20 so a 35% turn for me. Will watch and wait now.

[hpcg] 18/4/2016 09:15

Closed but not first thing, so I missed out on quite a lot. Decent 25% turn in less than a week. I'm watching now, with no immediate plan long or short.

[hpcg] 17/4/2016 23:10

Gapped down and now moving around 5-6% off. Will see what the morning brings.

[my retirement fund] 17/4/2016 21:31

It will be interesting to see what the markets make of the situation safe to say in the days ahead it will be negative.If I'm not mistaken the hatred between Saudi and Iran seems to be putting the knockers on any semblance of agreement and its a situation that looks unlikely to change in the near to medium term.

[hpcg] 17/4/2016 18:46

Indeed. We are going to learn an awful lot about the market come open. I rate failure to make a meaningless agreement quite a bad thing. If oil holds up then I would say that is bullish for oil and the market in general. I sort of struggle to believe participants thought this was important but one can never tell. Obviously a sharp decline suits my position - and it could be that oil shorts might weigh in and that could knock out long contracts.

[my retirement fund] 17/4/2016 18:41

Oil-Freeze Talks End in Failure Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran

[my retirement fund] 12/4/2016 10:10

Yes very wise. Price is under 95p - less than what i paid last time.Good call for holding off last week as there wasn't the pull back on that 6% rise.Market looks very excited tho, look at enquest equity now. Crazy.

[hpcg] 12/4/2016 08:57

Started to dip my tow in again. Looking to build up gradually to Friday - though not a large position as technically oil could break out upwards. With the meeting on Sunday there is plenty of time for the non-news to be digested before the open on Monday.

[my retirement fund] 08/4/2016 14:41

You are not alone with your take on the 17th - wait for the spike up and short it perhaps

[hpcg] 08/4/2016 13:20

No - I have a timing basis (17 Apr) rather than a target basis. Price action is a bit too choppy for me at the moment. The rise is allegedly on US and German economic data. According to CNBC anyway. More likely to be momentum chasing in my opinion.

I'm equally happy not to trade as it needs constant attention; 5OIL, 5OIS being London listed do not trade at the WTI close so I think one needs a trend unless day trading.

[my retirement fund] 08/4/2016 12:13

Tempting to re buy today. Huge surge in poo. Not sure fully whats behind it.Have you a re entry target ?

[hpcg] 07/4/2016 10:02

Good move I think - I imagine you did much better than me as I held for far too short a period. The oil producers meeting on 17 April is the next trading opportunity, depending on price action in the next 10 days. I suspect it will be choppy, but I will be looking for a local high to sell into as this is one of the most obvious sell the news non-events I can think of.
The only reason not to do that is more US draw down into the holiday season. In theory there should be de-stocking for the next few months. This sets up the opportunity to mimic last years action long then short irrespective of any non-US producer agreement.

[my retirement fund] 06/4/2016 19:54

Clased out here for now.

[my retirement fund] 18/3/2016 19:45

I dont think all those US frackers were quite as shortsighted as some thought and they are happy to operate at lower market prices. Any opec action seems unlikely during 2016.

[hpcg] 18/3/2016 19:12

I made 3 trades this afternoon at 95.55, 95.69 and 96.1. Given the action in the US post UK close this looks completely inadequate! I do have a couple of spread bets on also. The main message from the oil market in the last few days is how much oil companies have been selling short. This means they are not only happy to lock in sales in the low 40s (i.e. for later months in the year), they must be making money and they must be looking forward to pumping. I do accept that they need money now, and selling futures is a great way to bring forward revenue, but this caps the oil price in the short term.

FWIW I see a return to low 30s in sharp order. What happens after depends on how much over supply is out there, storage in Cushing, and driving season pick up.

It should also be noted that contract roll over in contango is beneficial to short positions.

This seems like a good way to add funds for the next 5OIL long.

[my retirement fund] 18/3/2016 12:18

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