Hallin Marine Subsea Share Discussion Threads

[greek islander] 07/7/2009 08:57

The selling should stop soon. It is mainly PIs responding to the recent so-called profits warning.
Consolidation may happen here or at a lower point but I am sure that the medium to long term prospects remain very strong. If you are long in a stock and not a dy trader, then these hiccups happen - GNG suffered a bout self inflicted hiccups twice and have almost doubled in quick time since. Fundamentals will always come out in the end.
I shall either hold or buy more depending on the prevailing winds and whether my boat comes in in August - it is definately heading in the right direction.

[crawford] 07/7/2009 08:49

MoonLover - 7 Jul'09 - 06:49 - 1914 of 1916




Hallin Marine collapsed 35p to 115p after a dire trading statement. Broker FinnCap says margins are expected to see continued downward pressure in the short term. It slashed its headline full-year profits forecast to £11.2million from £25million.


Thanks MoonLover, so Profits now expected to be £11.2m and our market cap is less than £40m!

I would love to buy more at this price, looks good value to me.

[panagos] 07/7/2009 06:59

Moonlover I called this down to 110p from 140p a couple of months back on this thread due to a gap in the canndlestick chart (you can trace it back), now i look again i see another gap at around 55p, dunno if it will be filled, but I-llbe definately a buyer then, i might consider 80p if it holds for along time.

imho, dyor etc

[moonlover] 07/7/2009 06:49

Hallin Marine collapsed 35p to 115p after a dire trading statement. Broker FinnCap says margins are expected to see continued downward pressure in the short term. It slashed its headline full-year profits forecast to £11.2million from £25million.


In general House Brokers will not fully downgrade on the first profit warning, they leave a bit for the second profit warning and then the third one.

So FinnCap have slashed down to 20p EPS and around 20m US$ profit.

The bad thing for HMS is the operational gearing.

Next profit warning should take another 30% off, so EPS down to say 15p.

Given the outlook is poor and EPS falling a PER in the region of times 4 is correct, so target 60p.


Do not get hyped into the "margins will continue to get hit with increased competition BUT THE FUTURE LOOKS BETTER".

This simply says things are going to get worse BUT WE HOPE AND PRAY THINGS WILL BE BETTER NEXT YEAR.


Has to be a strong sell to 60p IMVHO ahead of the next expected profit warning with the "margins have continued to be hit due to competition for the business available at the moment".

They do not have a crystal ball for the future. They admit that margins are going to keep getting hit in the short term (which is the future they can see given pricing and bookings in the market now). Therefore ignore the long term and mid term crystal ball looking and look only to what is visible, and that is more pain on the margin front and continued falling earnings and profits.

[longsight] 06/7/2009 20:37

clancrackan- thanks

ls

[bohemian13] 06/7/2009 17:16

Elban stop deramping on the RCG thread when your own shares are sinking :

[clancrackan] 06/7/2009 17:10

longsight

"The Canadian Kipling" Robert William Service

regards

[rivaldo] 06/7/2009 15:43

ELBAN, I like it - "just a tit"!

KBC issued a much improved trading statement this morning, citing improved conditions in the last month. It's in the same sector as HMS (though a very different sub-sector), but perhaps the smoke signals are improving.

[koolio] 06/7/2009 15:25

You just keep talking it down ML. The intelligent may have sold and I am fully aware that I am a bit of a thickie with emmotional hang ups about this stock but I,m happy to buy again at 92p. I hope that you are making your killing while the less inteligent amoung us keep hold of our nerve and build our positions.

[longsight] 06/7/2009 15:22

clancrackan - nice bit of verse. Who is the author?

Moonlover - pointless repetition.

I don't really know enough about HMS's business to comment on the recent share price fall, though I think the business appears hi quality. The one thing I do disagree with is the opinion that the oil price is a one way journey. I think none of us know whether the recession might not make a second vicious downward move, severely impacting on oil consumption. Further, none of us know whether solar or wind power might not make a technological breakthrough which might dramatically reduce their cost - & put a cap on the price of fossil fuels - after all, as they say, the maker of slide rules didn't see the calculator coming.

[glasshalfull] 06/7/2009 15:07

It appears that Moonlover has an unhealthy obsession with HMS...reminds me of another poster that many investors had to suffer over on the RCG thread.

Why let facts get in the way. Let's not mention the asset base or prior 10 years of growth, low PER and mention in the trading statement in the company continuing to win significant new work.

Moonlover is obviously hoping to drive it lower to jump in, similar to a certain PP who bashed RCG incessantly only to buy in early 2009.

I'm sure investors can make their own minds up over HMS.

Kind regards,
GHF

[alroyrob] 06/7/2009 15:06

There are large chunky buys mopping up EVERY group of small sells, but still down... bit of manipulation ?

[moonlover] 06/7/2009 14:54

Its so easy to call these stocks.

On a profit warning the intelligent people sell.

The emotional people in love with the share will spend countless posts on bulletin boards explaining why everything is actually all good and how cheap it is.

They will then soften the fall by buying more, and persuading others to buy, or buy more.

Once this little bit of support dries up, those not caught up in ramping but too scared to sell before, finally sell.

This selling on top of larger holders trying to unload their holdings in dribs and drabs into the "in love buying mores" eventually leads to more and more falls.

People who might buy simply just wait and see how low it goes, there is no rush.

The profit warning is out, things are bad and likely number 2 profit warning is coming, so wait and see, why tie your money up in a "1st profit warning" stock.

And so the price keeps going down.

Down and down.

60p target.

[moonlover] 06/7/2009 14:37

Ticking down, should be at 60p or less before too many weeks pass.

[clancrackan] 06/7/2009 13:12

Moon-Lover


The Moon is like a ping-pong ball;
I lean against the orchard wall,
And see it soar into the void,
A silky sphere of celluloid.

Then fairy fire enkindles it,
Like gossamer by taper lit,
Until it glows above the trees
As mellow as a Cheddar cheese.

And up and up I watch it press
Into appalling loneliness;
Like realms of ice without a stain,
A corpse Moon come to life again.

I have a compact to commune
A monthly midnight with the Moon;
Into its face I stare and stare,
And find sweet understanding there.

As quiet as a toad I sit
And tell my tale of days to it;
The tessellated yarn I've spun
In thirty spells of star and sun.

And the Moon listens pensively,
As placid as a lamb to me;
Until I think there's just us two
In silver world of mist and dew.

In all of spangled space, but I
To stare moon-struck into the sky;
Of billion beings I alone
To praise the Moon as still as stone.

And seal a bond between us two,
Closer than mortal ever knew;
For as mute masses I intone
The Moon is mine and mine alone.

To know the Moon as few men may,
One must be just a little fey;
And for our friendship's sake I'm glad
That I am just a trifle mad.

As I have kept by land and sea
That tryst for half a century;
Entranced in sibylline suspense
Beyond a world of common-sense.

[moonlover] 06/7/2009 12:49

panagos, but things have changed since then and the outlook is not good. Therefore what looked good at 85p may now not be so good.

60p is a safer level to aim for, why rush to buy something that will get cheaper each week.

[panagos] 06/7/2009 11:24

Moon lover agreed, but around 85p directors bought significant chucks. I guess that would provide some support there.

[moonlover] 06/7/2009 11:15

Below 60p.

Tiny director buys are a sure sign that something is not good.

If its cheap they would purchase a hundred thousand pounds worth.

Ass covering attempts are normally the 5K amounts.

[hectorp] 06/7/2009 11:04

On close watch here pec.
See what can be picked up in a few more sessions.

[pec2004] 06/7/2009 10:43

Chartwise 85p looks a good adding point. I was waiting for 100p but will hold off a bit longer.

[pro_better] 06/7/2009 10:39

GI....how can you be happy knowing that this has to fall much more....

happiness is a good thing anyway...

[greek islander] 06/7/2009 10:25

The sell off continues - not me I may add! I'm happy to hold here.

[arthurly] 06/7/2009 07:28

Not holding but Moonlover does remind me of PP. Loads of assertions and no facts or argument to back it up.