Halifax Hse Price Index-May07

RNS Number:9175X
HBOS PLC
07 June 2007



                           Halifax House Price Index

        National Index                                       May 2007



                       All Houses, All Buyers Index (1983=100)

Index (seasonally adjusted) 637.2    Monthly Change 0.3%     Annual Change 10.6%
                
              Standardised Average Price (seasonally adjusted) #196,893



                                   Key Points



   * House prices increased by 0.3% in May, the smallest monthly gain this year
     and the third consecutive slowing in the monthly growth rate.

   * The annual rate of house price growth nudged lower for the second
     successive month to 10.6% from a peak of 11.1% in March.

   * Buyer interest in properties fell for the fifth consecutive month in April
     with the pace of decline increasing. Mortgage approvals to fund house
     purchase fell in April to their lowest level for 12 months and were 16%
     below the peak of 128,000 in November 2006 at 107,000.

   * Solid economic conditions and high employment support housing demand. The
     UK economy continued to grow at above its long-term average pace with GDP
     2.9% higher on an annual basis in 2007 Q1. The number of people in
     employment has risen by 93,000 over the past year.

    * Higher interest rates and the negative trend in real earnings growth are
      likely to cause house price inflation to moderate over the remainder of
      2007. The four interest rate rises since August 2006 have affected housing
      affordability, raising the monthly costs of servicing a mortgage. There 
      has also been a squeeze on real earnings growth in recent months with 
      headline retail price inflation of 4.8% exceeding average earnings growth 
      of 4.5% over the year to March 2007.

   * Rising food prices are also reducing the income households have available
     for housing. Annual food price inflation currently stands at 6.0%, its
     highest rate for almost six years.




Commenting, Martin Ellis, chief economist, said:


"House prices increased by 0.3% in May. This is the smallest increase so far
this year and the third successive easing in the monthly growth rate. The recent
slowing in monthly house price inflation, together with further evidence of
moderation in housing market activity, suggests that the interest rate rises
since last summer are having an impact on the market.


Higher interest rates, the negative trend in real earnings growth and rising
food prices are likely to bite increasingly on householders' finances over the
coming months, curbing housing demand. House price inflation is expected to
moderate as a result. The market, however, remains supported by solid economic
foundations which, together with supply shortages, will continue to support
prices."


Further evidence that housing market activity is easing ......

Buyer interest in properties fell for the fifth consecutive month in April with
the pace of decline increasing. (Source: RICS)


Mortgage approvals to fund house purchase fell by 4% in April to a seasonally
adjusted 107,000. Approvals were at their lowest level for 12 months and 16%
below the peak of 128,000 in November 2006. (Source: Bank of England)


Housing market conditions still tight but signs of loosening .......

The stock of unsold property on estate agents' books rose in April for the first
time in six months. This increase in stock contributed to the first fall in the
ratio of sales to available property stock since May 2006, indicating a
loosening in market conditions. (Source: RICS) Nonetheless, market conditions
remain tight and supply shortages - both new and secondhand properties -continue
to exert upward pressure on house prices.


Solid economic conditions and high employment support housing demand ......

The UK economy continued to grow at above its long-term average pace in 2007 Q1
with GDP 0.7% up on the previous quarter and 2.9% higher on an annual basis,
according to the latest estimate. The good health of the economy has underpinned
a 93,000 increase in the number of people in employment over the past year.
(Source: ONS)


Higher interest rates and the negative trend in real earnings growth are likely
to cause house price inflation to moderate ......

The four interest rate rises since August 2006 have affected housing
affordability, raising the monthly costs of servicing a mortgage. At the same
time, there has been a squeeze on real earnings growth in recent months.
Headline retail price inflation of 4.8% exceeded average earnings growth of 4.5%
over the year to March 2007. This fall in real earnings contrasts with real
earnings growth of 1.6% during the previous year. (Average earnings rose by 4.0%
over the year to March 2006 against headline retail price inflation of 2.4%).
(Source: ONS)


Rising food prices are also reducing the income households have available for
housing

Annual food price inflation increased from 5.6% in March to 6.0% in April, its
highest rate for almost six years. Food prices have risen sharply worldwide
recently as an expanding biofuels industry, climate change and the growing
prosperity of countries such as China and India have combined to push up the
prices of agricultural commodities. These upward pressures on food prices are
likely to persist.




NOTE: The 10.9% number is the quarterly year-on-year figure. This figure
provides a much better picture of underlying trends compared to a monthly
year-on-year number as it smoothes out any short-term fluctuations.

The Halifax House Price Index is prepared from information that we believe is
collated with care, but we do not make any statement as to its accuracy or
completeness. We reserve the right to vary our methodology and to edit or
discontinue the indices at any time for regulatory or other reasons. Persons
seeking to place reliance on the indices for their own or third party commercial
purposes do so at their own risk.


                      This information is provided by RNS
            The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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