Genbel S.A. Share Discussion Threads

[panagos] 26/1/2011 19:26

Lung,

If NKO hit oil this will be $2-3 in a day.

[alexwest7] 21/1/2011 15:22

should be some bounce seeing as the volume that took us to 55c in the first leg up was the 4th highest in 5 years....but we shall see.

[thelung] 21/1/2011 14:59

Strong bounce coming or just a shoulder forming?

[alexwest7] 20/1/2011 15:39

I concur with your sentiments jf but probably take a few more positives away from the prospect A drill yourself. It seems absurd to me that the market would start to price in some sort of positive result from egypt with clearly our as much as 'in the bag' drill as it can get is Guyana. As Robbo has pointed out the basin has been independently assessed and estimated to contain upwards of 10bbls recoverable. not too bothered short term about the drop seeing as I personally got in a fairly long time ago, but who would of thought back in the summer results from Egypt would come before QD or Guyana? I would say short term though that 56c seems to be some sort of support in that its 38.2% Retracement from the 52 Week High.

Alex

[robbo126] 19/1/2011 18:10

Miami... I would suggest that it's higher then $8. My DCF valuation has each barrel worth $9.7 at NPV12 and $11.83 at NPV10. This is using fairly conservative oil price figures aswell i.e. $65 after costs now upto $95 after costs in 2036, inflation should ensure it's at least at that price and I think some would agrue for using closer to $120-150, which would increase the NPV per barrel fairly substancially! My NAV figures use the NPV12 figure of $9.70.


Here's some research I did ages ago regarding Guyana economic PSC terms....


The PSC's terms are very good to the companies due to Guyana's high risk and so far 0% commercial discoveries. These are the basic terms:-

Cost recovery: Following the start of commercial production, the contractor will be able to recover all capital and operating costs per month to a maximum of 75% per month during the first three years. After this period, contractors will be able to claim a maximum of 65% of recoverable capital and operating costs per month.

Profit oil: The contractor's share of the remaining production (profit oil) during the first five years will be 50% of the first 40,000 barrels of oil produced per day and 47% of additional production. After this five year period, the contractor's share will be reduced to 45%.

It is worth noting that the 1% royalty and 45% income tax payments are paid by the government on behalf of the contractor. Contractors' obligations are waived as they are considered to be part of the state's share of profit oil.

Another point of interest is that there is no mandatory state participation in any upstream activity.

I like the fact that Guyana still has interest from the major's, though in a different basin from GSA. Tullow, Repsol and Exxon Mobil all have interests in Guyana.

In 2001 the United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated that the Guyana Basin held recoverable reserves potential of around 15 billion barrels. Although this figure is now considered to be overly optimistic, it still suggests that significant potential exists in Guyana.

[miamisteve] 19/1/2011 17:59

updated the thread as I only just realised how good the terms are in guyana.

50% profit share, zero royalties or taxes. Thats quadruple the going rate in kurdistan.

Have to be worth $8 a barrel. $100m valuation just for karanambo if it comes good. 90% chance of success given it is being drilled 400metres from previous discovery.

[thelung] 19/1/2011 17:53

So you did. It's my novice skills taking over. They got to TD quickly - Spudded 4th January 2011 and planned 45 days to drill yet the news comes out 14 days after spud??

[panagos] 19/1/2011 17:52

i posted the newsrelease just beofore you posted aerlier on today tl.

[robbo126] 19/1/2011 15:26

I still get $1.59 RISKED and $3.83 UNRISKED here, just from Karanambo (Mean figure) and QD (2742mmbo OIP without any Tertiary upside at $3.6 per barrel, some would say this is conservative). I also have Egypt prospect B, being worth $2.60 unrisked.

Egypt not a complete failure yet and as alex points out, there are some positives there and also the prospects of QD are looking up. Would be happy if we stay above 60c today.

[alexwest7] 19/1/2011 15:05

Your probably right lung. And to be honest has anything fundamentally changed for GSA. Drill in under budget. Proved the existence source rock. Recovered I imagine some decent data to correlate against model and clearly the geology is easy to drill through. With Guyana still IMO being the real driver for the share price with such a high cos. I don't see too much of a pull back. But who knows!

[thelung] 19/1/2011 14:52

60c is the new 65c by the looks of it

[thelung] 19/1/2011 12:43

oh no, a double top!

[panagos] 17/1/2011 16:37

going up again

[thelung] 17/1/2011 16:18

going down! 4th time lucky...

[robbo126] 14/1/2011 18:00

Yes JF, abit of consolidation wouldn't be too bad for awhile before results. I'd suggest it to between 65c and the new mini resistance level of 75c. I will probably be totally wrong though! lol

[jfjfjf2] 14/1/2011 17:47

Robbo - Agree, hopefully we'll trade sideways and draw some breath before moving on. It's nice to see the shares being tightly held.

JF

[robbo126] 14/1/2011 17:02

Nice to see that the 65c-66c previous resistance point has held 3 times as support over the last 3 days. Good sign... but as we know the only thing that truely matters here are the 3 drill bits turning!

[panagos] 13/1/2011 18:17

LET THE OIL FLOW!!!!!!!

[robbo126] 13/1/2011 18:07

73c and counting.... the recent rise here and the spike at Vast bode well IMO.