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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ffi Holdings Plc | FFI | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 25.50 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.50 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 05/3/2019 13:45 by stemis FFI has been around since 1950 so it's not a fly by night operation. CEO, Ransohoff, has been with the company for 32 years so knows the completion contracts business pretty well. The completion contracts business is essentially one in which FFI looks after the interests of film investors by ensuring the film is delivered to budget, so treating it's own investors to sharp practices might attract more than a few raised eyebrows within its marketplace. I can also imagine a few in the entertainment's industry had a punt on the shares so wouldn't take too kindly to being ripped off. Of course that's not 'proof' of anything and you pays your money and takes your chance.Could FFI get back to 40p? Easily. At 40p it would be valued at $82m. Even if we ignored the cash (of which they had $15m last count), an ebitda multiple of 4-6 (hardly ambitious but probably realistic considering the lack of predictability at the moment) would require an ebitda of $14-20m. They did $7m in H1 and full year 'could' be as high as $13.5m despite the 'timing' issues they have encountered. If they are timing issues then we could easily see $20m next year. Of course 'could' isn't the same as 'will'. |
Posted at 27/2/2019 11:12 by depjoe Be very careful with dave4545Getting to his game buy quietly ramp on twitter and here then quietly sell without posting when he is selling dave4545 has revealed. His words "gently offload" dave4545 27 Feb '19 - 10:12 - 112 of 114 0 0 0 depjoe filtered. "you've rumbled me" What for having a twitter account. 99% of all traders/investors have twitter accounts too. I buy size in bombed out small caps and when they recover I gently offload. Nothing to hide. |
Posted at 11/2/2019 19:15 by davr0s No it's buyers and sellers that move a share price, and the big ones, at that - there are endless examples in trading history where price has gone in the opposite direction to supposed fundamentals? If you haven't done so you need to go read and absorb Weinstein, ONeil and more recently Minervini to name just a few - these guys are/were some of the best investors in their time and they spell out how markets work and also how much nonsense there is out there |
Posted at 11/2/2019 19:01 by davr0s Because it's the big traders ie institutions that will move the price in a meaningful way and not provide false moves. Quite frankly anything that anyone on this board says or does from a buying/selling perspective has no meaningful effect on the price. Lots of information out there from the very best traders/investors over the decades back this view up |
Posted at 01/2/2019 11:58 by blackzed Keyno, re banana skins, the 10ml decrease in underlying EBIT last year was due to IPO related one time charges. Hopefully it the one time charges do not end up recurring(pun intended), we can come to the normalized EBIT which doesn't look like that big of a banana skin accident.The completion business to me looks a little problematic: 1. It has fixed costs: need minimum number of sales not to incur a loss. 2. The claims on bonds are uncertain. Just look at the H12019 operating income for completion guarantee business. But I take solace in the fact that the equipment rental business should act as a damper to it and provide a stable operating profit and certainty. Another unknown is the Entertainment insurance business. Would love to hear from you guys more about the economics of it. The share price action seems to me as an irrational overreaction. Firstly, who would buy this business at IPO for 150gbp just 18 months ago if the fundamentals were taken into account (that was like buying a 300ml USD company for around 8ml of normalized earning.. whopping PE>35) Then weistein hell broke loose, those who bought at IPO sold out heavily. Those 25% of float has no big buyer left(in an environment of forced selling the share tanks as expected). I speculate the old mutual guys recently changes their name to Merian Global Investors and did some structural changes, which resulted in liquidating their positions in open market. I see the wreck as overdone.. AIM, operating in US but listed in UK, forced seller without rational buyers, the punters: good mixture for inefficiency in price. I wonder how the market had behaved had they listed it on NYSE. |
Posted at 30/1/2019 12:20 by soundbuy David @Carmensfella 55m55 minutes ago On such a low rating that they need to meet investors & help us to understand what they're all about & why lowly rated? Raise the profile as few know who & what is FFI holding?😉 I have bought an initial stake to make the research worthwhile & may need to do a @MelloEventsUK |
Posted at 29/1/2019 00:06 by stemis I think part of the problem could be that with such a small float and with the company effectively controlled by Ransohoff and Golden Sun (who with the 3 other largest holders can even pass a special resolution) institutional investors are just not interested. So when you have a largish shareholder who wants out, the price gets driven down. Private shareholders are a skittish bunch and a failing price can spook them out of the shares, compounding the fall.For this to be even close to a reasonable valuation, something must have gone horribly wrong in FFI or the company be planning something unpleasant (delisting or ludicrously cheap MBO offer). Even if there is no recovery in H2 v H1 results, the valuation is under 2 x ebitda or a P/E of 4.5 (in a cash positive business). That would make it the cheapest stock I know. I guess we'll find out eventually... |
Posted at 24/1/2019 11:22 by stemis It would have been better if FFI could have found an institutional investor(s) to buy Old Mutuals stock rather than it being dribbled through the market. Part of the role of the broker is to introduce new investors to which management can present. FFI need to be more proactive in managing their share price. |
Posted at 16/1/2019 17:16 by tsmith2 This post by naked investor is bang on:You guys need to do your research. This is a seriously well-regarded company. Everybody in the film and entertainment business speaks highly of Steve and FFI. Everybody. Iâve spoken to 30 people. Producers. Financiers. Competitors. FFI have such a strong franchise.re headwinds previously referred to. The core business is basically flat at best hence why theyâre moving into other service lines. But the completion bond isnât about to die (not a single insider has said that) and will be around 10 years from now. And these guys have a monopoly on the market. Itâs not even like there is an airbus to challenge them. Please keep selling shares at these crazy levels so I can keep topping up. Youâre nuts to invest in anything if you lack the time, resources or initiative to research the industry, the company and the people. Producers and financiers will tell you that the macro story for content is the best itâs ever been. Ever. So considering the strength of the platform (they get so much information flow) theyâre extremely well positioned to benefit from the content explosion the industry is seeing.- re ebit donât forget the amo as a result of goodwill on some of the acquisitions so itâs not a like for like.- Pandas is priced at a negative value and it hasnât even been released in its target market (China) yet. IMAX are releasing it in March. Anything panda related has done well at the box office.- reel media is an MGA for the biggest insurer to the film and entertainment industry in north America with the longest history. That should command a min 10x EBITDA multiple. Look at the accounts - theyâre expecting EBITDA of $6-11m per year! Hence the high contingency!- stop obsessing over the share price which is suffering as a result of nobody doing their bloody homework. the fundamentals are strong (macro and company level) and look at the insider ownership!- this is Hollywoodâs strongest and longest franchise (think of all the producers, studios, financiers that have come and gone over the years) trading at an insanely low ebit to EV multiple of less than 4x.But guys, do what you want. Your selling benefits the insiders (I expect strong buying this month if itâs not been done already the last 3x trading days) and the investors that have done the work and can hoover up your sales.I donât know if the share price will reflect the above anytime soon...(the market is a voting machine in the short run)...but in the long run itâs a weighing machine and these guys are a best in class franchise in a growth industry trading at an absurdly low valuation. Eventually the share price will reflect that. |
Posted at 08/1/2019 14:31 by pireric The question I think investors are missing is, "what would happen if this business didn't exist?"Investors who understand what FFI truly does will likely concur that the current valuation does little justice to the actual business, and reflects poor execution over the last 2 years. This is a business that, despite having seen profits sharply decline, still generates a profit (thanks to its high normalised margins) and has solid economics It's not a 5% commodity plastics manufacturer. For that reason, I'm pretty confident if you can look out far enough, then investors will be very well rewarded from these levels (as long as there isn't an opportunistic MBO that does cut upside - though one would hope the presence of large institutions means it wouldn't be at a mickey take price if it does happen). All that said, as contrarian as it is, I think the current valuation completely misprices the company. The potential reward here, if the market starts giving the company even a grain of credit over the next 12 months, massively outweighs the downside on almost any metric IMO. |
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