Falkland O&G Share Discussion Threads

[belisce6] 17/6/2014 11:48

yeah but depends on the audience... cos if u summed it up in a sentence, then u would or could say that the 3 northern drills are sea lion -attached, and that the southern 2 are rather decent massive prospects, particularly seeing that they did actually get hydrocarbons before... just that it was gas... so within fogls propsects, it seems more a question of whether it is oil or gas, not where there are hydrocarbons present...

[efagie] 17/6/2014 11:42

interesting piece. giant. shame about the inaccuracies.

"TGR: Falkland recently acquired Desire Petroleum Plc (DES:LSE). Did that diversify its chances of finding oil?"

no mention they have oil, 4% of sealion.
though that is to using both sands, the sl-10 and sl-20. the sl-10 not going into fogl's area. the sl-20 does.

PR: Broadly speaking, yes. A proven oil field in the north of the Falklands called Sea Lion is being brought into production by a consortium of Premier Oil Plc (PMO:LSE) and Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH:LSE). Falkland Oil has 40% of the licensed area surrounding Sea Lion."

no mention that fogl actually have some 4% of sealion alone, and maybe more. so likely, part of that consortium. and fogl do not have 40% of the area around sealion, they have 40% of the area to the south, which includes the 4% overlap.

"We think, on three wells that are planned at Sea Lion for 2015, Falkland's share of the oil from the properties it acquired from Desire Petroleum could be equivalent to 200 million barrels. It also has its original properties on the south side of the Falkland Islands, which are bigger prospects."

there's NOT 3 wells for sealion, its one, (chathams gas cap possibility) the other two are to the satellites, which are in fogl's block, plo4. for which they have 40%.

all imo of course....

edit: casper, also is mainly in the rkh/pmo block, but does extend into the fogl block. for which MAY be some say; 30% of the whole, for which fogl has its 40% of. how much oil is put to casper?

[cinques] 16/6/2014 23:21

Good post Giant Steps. Cheers.

[giant steps] 16/6/2014 22:08

Reference to FOGL - see page 2

16th June 2014

[john09] 16/6/2014 19:13

Agree agree

[belisce6] 16/6/2014 17:56

yep.. and the start may come just after the 3D seismics results are announced... sometime in Q3...

[themadstork] 16/6/2014 17:50

Barring some major disaster, FOGL will have a large share in a major drilling campaign targeting hundreds of millions of barrels starting q1/2 2015. At some point before drilling starts there will be a considerable speculative rise. This *always* happens to *every* explorer before any significant drilling program.


The results of said campaign are entirely irrelevant; it's the speculative rise where the reliable, almost risk-free money will be made.

[ghostofahangman] 16/6/2014 15:55

oh no, the TRP muppets are turning up, one would of thought they have had enough

[belisce6] 16/6/2014 14:20

3D seismics coming through in Q3 2014 ? those are usually always positive :-))

[john09] 16/6/2014 14:11

Agree re money working harder elsewhere ATM but once it starts moving it'll move...

One things for sure 25p on a 9 month view is a great buy.

[alex hawk] 16/6/2014 14:09

IRG looks like a good company IMO drilling next year.

FOGL not convinced just yet think my money can work harder elsewhere for now but if you take a 12 months view not a bad entry point.

[john09] 16/6/2014 14:01

I don't think there are many others drilling in 2015? I'm sure there's one or two but I can't help but feel it'll be all eyes on the Falklands in 2015

I'm going to take a major position at these levels. 25p ... I can see 60p before any well results

[themadstork] 16/6/2014 13:38

There will definitely be an anticipation rise before rig mobile.

[imperial3] 16/6/2014 13:30

I can't see the share price changing very much until drilling commences.

[robpuguk] 12/6/2014 21:46

Yup, and that's what I think will happen from PMO's side on the unitisation, I reckon they will emphasise the cost contribution required from FOGL.

The third drill thing, Tim was adamant that they can comfortably farm down more to cover that if the seismic shows up fantastic stuff.

As for mid drill campaign, more wells is what the extra shares will be for

[efagie] 12/6/2014 17:20

rob, having read it now a few thoughts and questions arise.

not surprised by the zeberdee part, would seem daft to farmout more given the connectivity to the other fields. casper, beverly, sealion, casper south. they would be giving the oils away for little.

the pre drill options, not alot there for pmo, though could be for noble. 2 possibly. notwithstanding bor and arg.

the third drill option mentioned, farmin or dilution?

though IF? given my thoughts with regards the highlighting of helen and of susan, in an area where some farmout to either noble or pmo can easily happen should the indication from isobel be good. no probs.
an appraisal to isobel though, would likely be to dilution.
the rights issue mentioned, not likely. setting one up would take too long. where'as some dilution to a II is a lot quicker. imo.

regards unitisation. its an odd one really. the first phase seems to include producing from the sl10 and the sl20. so must include fogl given it goes into pl04. imo of course. and something mentioned long ago. IF casper is to phase two. then the first phase costs to fogl are some 4%. if casper is to phase one, then fogl costs must be some 15%. for that, unless they sell off, there would be dilution of sorts. but given the expected higher share price not as big as might be considered.

one has to ask, given pmo finances, WHY not get fogl to pay up for some part of the costs?

[cyan] 12/6/2014 11:22

Good morning Robpuguk. Excellent posts. Thanks for your report. Have to agree about Zeberdee; targeting 7 zones is looking VERY interesting...boing

[robpuguk] 12/6/2014 11:17

I got the impression it would be for appraisal if they found something substantial next year - and allows them to issue that amount very quickly if the share price has reacted to good news..

A few in the room were keen for a rights issue to give PI's the chance of taking part but I get the feeling that wont happen.

End of the day if Noble find something amazing on the seismic they may go for a third drill which Noble will need cash for.

Get the feeling Zeberdee is gonna be the well to watch!

[themadstork] 12/6/2014 10:58

Thanks for that, Rob. There was some speculation that the extra shares might be used for an acquisition of a smaller player. I take it you didn't get that impression?

[robpuguk] 12/6/2014 10:43

"Just noticed a mistake btw, Tim towards end was saying would try and avoid dilution with more farming down if noble want to drill a third well initially. So farming down is their first choice rather than using share issues. "

[robpuguk] 12/6/2014 10:43

I went to the FOGL AGM yesterday, heres my notes.. posted them on iii too..

"Chap stands up and makes proper awkward statement against the remaining DES board members and how they should not be on the board of FOGL after drilling into the earths crust and finding water. Completely changed the atmosphere straight away. Did make me smile tho...

Authorisation to issue upto 170 million new shares for any opportunity that may occur during drilling - I guess for appraisal of any decent finds. 38% against this on the voting...

Farm down an option if more funds required.. Not first choice.

Same Chap then stands up and has a go about Tim Bushell & Colin More's income and that it's excessive... More awkwardness....

Tim Bushell then does the technical presentation slide show..

Nice shot of Eirik Raude rig at start..

Presentation will be on website afterwards.

Mobilisation aiming at feb... But may slip.

Oil window guiding where the 3D seismic was done.

Gas condensate development is a challenge, prefer oil.

Gas long term, noble bought back into loligo for their expertise.

Politics that RKH & PMO see Casper etc are satellites yet FOGL believe it's all effectively part of one accumulation. Linking to unitisation. Talks underway and take time, commercial & political it seems.

FOGL were offered farm out deal on the zeberdee drill by PMO... FOGL said no.. Happy to pay their share of the 40%.. Interesting.

Rig options..

No options were originally being offered in tenders, rig market softened and they started to be offered.

ARG & BOR asked to have options if they get farm outs. They want BOR to get a deal so they can switch between drills and give thinking time which helps.

Delighted with rig they have.

FOGL have 42% of next years drilling program based on expected drill days.

Successful at farm outs. BHP came and went but at least paid $40 million.

Tim doesn't think premier or noble will ask for any of the first 8 options. But not ruled out for noble depends on seismic results.

Majors not interested yet, but are aware. If major find found in south basin it will change overnight with the majors. Tim doesn't believe many opportunities for more sea lions in the north...

PMO weren't dragging heels, very keen on getting rig signed. Hoping improve economics with more finds in zeberdee and will aid PMO's farm out.

Oh and they were stingy on the biscuits...."

[cyan] 11/6/2014 20:18

I like the Zebedee drill with 7 target zones

[themadstork] 09/6/2014 12:02

I am buying 10000 of these a week for the foreseeable future. Impossible to say when the rise will start or how low it might dip before then. But the rise *will* come at some point and I am expecting 100% easily from these levels by early 2015.

[cyan] 06/6/2014 19:21

You want a laugh Thaarg? read the HUR thread


"Falklands
5 Jun'14 - 15:53 - 109 of 116 1 0


Volume up buyer Lancaster starts rumours ?

Also tipped by Chrisoil twitter today on buy list



CHRISOIL TWITTER
6 Jun'14 - 10:27 - 110 of 116 0 0


Yes indeed on my conviction list i trust posters read my site "

Talking to himself again! Unbelievable