Dragon Oil Share Discussion Threads

[ch4ppy] 14/7/2015 00:57

Received my call from ENOC yesterday. The conversation was pretty short. I've already rejected the offer.

[dragon2go] 13/7/2015 09:22

oscarino


This comes from someone I reached out to back in 2009, during the last attempted takeover.The point is that ENOC have a higher offer in reserve, and until they commit themselves by declaring whatever price they put on the table as their final offer there is always scope for upward movement.

[oscarino] 13/7/2015 09:11

Dragon2go

I'm not sure your latest update will do us any favours. It might give the impression that minority holders would be happy with that. I for one would not be.

[dragon2go] 13/7/2015 08:31

Developments in this story regarding an enhanced offer detailed at thedragonoiloffer.com and on Twitter by @thedragonoil

[pollster] 12/7/2015 17:52

blakieboy

should one of selftrade's customers point out to them that:-

1. The default option followed by most brokers is only to vote in favour if the customer requests it.

2. That the instruction in the circular is that no action is a non-acceptance.

It may make them reconsider

Regards

[blakieboy7] 12/7/2015 03:31

Absolutely Fido! Enoc have manipulated the share price for years, some might say! Lol

[fido] 11/7/2015 21:59

blakieboy7,
I would describe Dragons last RNS as meaningless rather than meaningful.

"The 50% comes because it’s being measured against a very low base.
That low base was caused, I would say somewhat artificially, by the plummeting price of oil and concerns about Russian expansion"

Not by ENOC and their buddies shorting the shares down then, LOL.

[blakieboy7] 11/7/2015 21:26

It's a shame it took DGO a while after enocs offer to release the latest meaningful RNS. I wonder how many votes were cast prior to this?!

[fido] 11/7/2015 21:08

"As the Big Dragon Choice Creeps Nearer, a New Drilling Update Tempts Me to Say No."

"I was rung up by a very nice chap representing ENOC who pointed out this generous premium on the share price. But is it all that generous? The 50% comes because it’s being measured against a very low base.


That low base was caused, I would say somewhat artificially, by the plummeting price of oil and concerns about Russian expansion, as suggested by its activity over Ukraine.


But the oil price will rise again and the Ukraine threat seems to be receding. Or has it simply dropped out of the news on Western TV."

[blakieboy7] 11/7/2015 12:47

The future for dragon is so ridiculously bright - keep your shares! And don't forget to vote NO if you have your shares with Selftrade

[fido] 11/7/2015 08:25

With the threat of no Russian gas after 2019, the Europeans are finally getting serious about alternative supplies.
Turkmenistan for its part is also getting serious about supplying Europe with gas, especially now as Gazprom has not paid Turkmenistan for its gas since the start of the year.
There are now real and serious moves to agree the Trans Caspian pipeline project and I am expecting news on this in the near term.

I am also keeping an eye out for news from Iraq`s block 9 where I am expecting drilling news soon as I suspect ENOC may not be overly keen on people knowing about what promises to be excellent drilling news.

[fido] 10/7/2015 16:45

Everyone continues to talk about Dragon as if they were just about Turkmenistan when in fact they have a host of very exciting near to mid term projects.

"Dragon Oil (LON:DGO) confirmed it has upgraded its production growth expectations for the current year after achieving rates in excess of 100,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) in June.

The oil company, which is currently the subject of a £1.7bn takeover offer, said that having previously expected 10% production growth in 2015 it now expected to see a 15% increase in output for the year.

An ‘exit rate’ of 100,000 bopd was targeted for 2015, but company today confirmed that gross production reached 100,658 bopd on June 9.

The average production rate for the month of June was 98,890 bopd, and the average figure for the first six months of the year was 92,060 bopd.

That Dragon has achieved the annual production target at the year’s mid-way point may be seen as supportive of the views of activist minority shareholders like Baillie Gifford and Setanta Asset Management (owning 7.2% and 3.1% respectively) which claim the takeover offer is too low.

Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC), Dragon Oil’s largest shareholder, is offering 750p per share to acquire all the shares it does not already own (which values the outstanding share at £1.7bn and the whole company at £3.7bn).

ENOC already has more than a foot in the door, as it has a majority 54% stake in the company.

If ENOC falls short of buying all the shares, but it gets the majority of the outstanding shares (i.e. a further 23% of the company), it intends to take Dragon Oil company off the stock exchange.

Baillie Gifford, which rejects the ENOC offer, claims Dragon Oil can continue to production by between 5-10% per year for the next decade, and it says this upside potential is not factored into the proposed takeover price.

ENOC, meanwhile, believes Dragon Oil has achieved all it can with its current strategy and in its current form."

[barbilliardpete] 10/7/2015 16:41

To large trades this afternoon 286556 at 16.06 . 577720 at 15.18

[fido] 10/7/2015 12:07

"we have yet to discern a constraint on the productive capacity of Cheleken and believe it is only a matter of time that the production ’bar’ will be raised"

Or to put it another way, ENOC are taking you all for a bunch of complete idiots.
For that reason alone I would wise up and see what is happening here, then vote accordingly.

[zedman_1] 10/7/2015 11:27

According to today’s analysis by Goodbody Stockbrokers:

"The statement this morning from Dragon Oil continues to demonstrate the productive capacity of the Turkmen asset. As we indicated in our report in April we have yet to discern a constraint on the productive capacity of Cheleken AND BELIEVE IT IS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME THAT THE PRODUCTION 'BAR' WILL BE RAISED."

[scammonden] 10/7/2015 09:57

100,000 Production plateau.

The only way that this will be achieved is by by SINKING the Caspian Driller and off-hiring the other rigs.

The RNS mentions that "Production has been added through additional perforations in existing wells as well as four jet pump installations in the area".

This confirms that with little new well drilling production continues to increase. The problem for Dragon will be keeping production around 100,000bopd.

BP with a full field water injection programme would be producing over 150,000bopd by 2020. BP would not have ENOC holding back progress.

[fido] 10/7/2015 08:09

Hmm.
10 years of analizing the oil sector and his opinion is that you get highs and lows, and his opinion of the current crisis is that it, without any reference of the geo politcal situation, is a correction.

I am amazed at his insight and consider myself duly educated-NOT.

[pete678] 10/7/2015 07:55

For those interested in oil companies check this Interview with Gaurav Sharma - an Independent Energy Analyst:

[fido] 10/7/2015 07:52

The bit that really angers me if ENOC succeed, is that if you fast forward 2-3 years then ENOC directors will be patting each other on the back and receiving nice expensive gratuities for driving Dragons strong growth since the takeover.
What they won`t be thinking of is the way they lied and cheated their way into conning the minority shareholders out of their investment.

[fido] 10/7/2015 07:33

Well I think you would have to be a complete idiot to believe what`s going on here.This whole saga is being completly orchestrated by ENOC.
Using the interim management statement as a reference, the Caspian Driller should have started work in the 2Q and now we are told 3Q.
In the IMS Dragon stated that we would achieve the 100,000bopd in 2016 and yet we easily achieve it half way through 2015 with the Caspian Driller still to start working.
Having smashed through the 100,000bopd barrier we find ourselves now slightly under, what a surprise that it.
Even though the pumps are being installed with the specific aim of increasing production, we are being told that production will stay at 100,000.
The best bit is that Dragon have actually increased their production target for 2015 from 10% to 15% and yet we are being told that the 100,000 will be maintained.
Even a complete and utter idiot could see that what BG is saying is true and that Dragon could easily increase production to 125,000bopd in the near term and 150,000-200,000 further out.
The only thing you can say about these figures really is that ENOC have said that the main reason for taking over Dragon at this present time is that they have gone ex-growth at 100,000bopd so in effect what do you really expect ENOC (sorry Dragon) to say.
In my opinion, if ENOC is allowed to get their hands on Dragon then they will be pushing for the 200,000bopd from Turkmenistan asap as well as having their foot down hard on the aquisition and diversification front.
The whole lot is farcicle at the moment and in no way represents the future of Dragon.

[2020hindsight] 10/7/2015 07:07

Barclays forms have arrived. Default action is not to accept.

[northwestwirral] 10/7/2015 07:07

Reply from H&L regarding a NO VOTE

The communication regarding the Dragon Oil Takeover Offer by ENOC will be sent to Hargreaves Lansdown clients shortly.

As the Offer is structured as a Takeover there is no Shareholder vote at which shareholders can vote against the Offer. Shareholders that do not wish to accept the Offer do not need to take any action.

[kingrolo] 10/7/2015 06:56

Chased Hargreaves Lansdown who have not yet contacted DGO holders - they have confirmed will be sending out to holders soon and need to do nothing if voting NO.

[2020hindsight] 10/7/2015 06:41

"Caspian Driller expected to commence operations in Q3 2015" .... Shouldn't the production update say "Caspian Driller delayed yet again, this time deliberately to avoid it making any contribution to Dragon Oil's ex-growth production" ?

Games afoot here surely.

[fido] 09/7/2015 17:51

We are getting closer to an agreement on the Trans Caspian.
Such a prospect would be a game changer for Dragon but of course ENOC don`t wish you to know that.

"In recent months, negotiations on deliveries of Turkmen gas to Europe have notably intensified. The initiators of this activization are both Turkmenistan, which has repeatedly expressed its interest in exporting its gas to the European market, and the EU, which actively seeks alternative sources of gas in the light of tensions with its main supplier, Russia. The determination of the parties in this matter is so great that vice president of the European Commission's energy union Maros Sefcovic said at the last talks in early May in Ashgabat that the EU intends to get Turkmen gas already in 2019"