Dipford Share Discussion Threads

[topvest] 06/12/2004 18:41

Good set of interims today. Things seem to be on track at Dowling Kerr and Redwoods. No mention of Prism so this side of the business sounds like it may not have taken off yet. Overall very encouraging though. Investors seem to have overlooked this one, given by the lack of interest shown on this BB. Think this business has strong potential.

[topvest] 22/11/2004 20:46

Another sensible deal today, pulling Redwoods into 100% ownership. Zippo interest being shown, for now. This company is doing all the right things imo. A future star?

[topvest] 12/9/2004 15:00

Yes, always surprised as to how quiet things are on this one. Good management team, a robust strategy and significant growth potential. Why doesn't this company get more attention?

[unionhall] 24/7/2004 21:11

I've taken a punt on it - just came across it on the results.

But a 50%+ gross margin with good growth levels looks like something which could provide good returns in a year or two.

30% is owned by two directors which seems positive - (haven't looked beyond that) and very illiquid so I think there will be a need to hold until the story is undeniable.

[simonevans] 23/7/2004 18:24

Nice set of results today - looks a quality play this one. Is there anyone else following this one?

[nissi beach] 01/3/2004 18:01

LONDON (AFX) - Dipford Group PLC, the small and midcap company merger
specialist, reported a narrowing in losses for the first half to Oct 31 and said
the results came in ahead of management's expectations.
The company reported losses of 34,955 stg compared with a loss of 127,050
stg a year earlier as turnover rose to over 1 mln stg from 173,000 stg.
"We remain positive as to the long term outlook and confident that our
pre-goodwill profits for the full year will meet market expectations," the group
said in its results statement

so if it was above expectations why the fall?

could it be the intangibles which if written off (normal accounting pratice) wipe out the shareholders funds

[energyi] 15/5/2003 08:16

this year's SELL IN MAY thread:

[crystalclear] 16/3/2003 01:46

Can this new virus from Hong Kong be related to the sun spot cycle or has it come too late?



Looks like synchronisation is not too precise, which is what one would expect if it was random genetic mutation, but somehow aided by the sunspots.

[a.fewbob] 16/3/2003 01:06

Talking plagues,

Can this new virus from Hong Kong be related to the sun spot cycle or has it come too late?
I read an article some time ago regarding what they termed as the "chicken Flu" which for some reason or other normaly originates from Hong Kong. In this article they say the normal evolution for a new flu virus is for it to start in fowl but then eventualy mutate and spread to pigs before finally mutating again and spreading to humans. This would normaly be no problem because our imune system can handle such a virus due to the fact that we share some common cellular attributes to pigs so the new virus will not be to strange for our imune system to handle.
The problem comes when a new virus which starts life amongst fowl mutates and starts infecting humans without using pigs as a stepping stone. This new virus will be radically different to what our imune system would be used to and so millions would die from a very easily spread virus. It has happened before and not that long ago, in fact the researcher who wrote the said artical (which I think I found in focus) was going on about digging up dead bodies in spain to examine for more clues regarding this outbreak. I think it broke out during the first or maybe second world war.

Another interesting point is the theory that increased sun activity causes gene mutations. If this were true then I suppose it makes sense that plagues (which after all are just new viruses that we have not had time to evolve defenses to) pop up during heavy solar activity.
These new viruses must have some kind of catalyst.

[crystalclear] 15/3/2003 23:42

Captain Swing
Your capital replacement cycle seems to be ten years and so it cannot be synchronised with sunspots, and you fail to explain how.

Here is some info to support sunspots driving investor sentiment:

Playing the Field: Geomagnetic Storms and International Stock Markets - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Working Paper 2003-5
February 2003

[captain swing] 15/3/2003 19:42

"regugular use"

LOL Crystal!

It's the Juglar (or capital replacement) cycle that is hinted by the sunspot number.

1981, 1991, 2001..... sure

But run it back (Juglar was a French physician who did his work in the latter part of the 19th century).

Does it still fit?

No idea

[crystalclear] 15/3/2003 16:39

Energyi
I think it is well known that the sunspots have an 11 year cycle and a big effect on the weather. Whether a warm sunny day cheers us up enough to pay more for shares is another question, but I could go with the argument. I will still try to buy based on fundamentals myself.

I think whoever got the phrase double dip recession into regugular use did a great job. Like the question "have you stopped beating your wife?", the mere question leads people's thinking. Yes we will have a double dip, a gentle downhill. No we won't, things are getting better. It brainwashes Joe Public away from the idea that a crash is forming or in progress. What a wonderful way to prevent it. Just put the possibility out of people's minds with the simple phrase "Double Dip"!

Incidentally, I have read that the great plagues of the world have aligned themselves on the boundaries of the 11 year sun spot cycle. I would have said "how could anybody know?" But there is wood from slices of trees going back centuries, and the thicknesses of the rings represent conditions in each of the years of the trees life. For example by knowing the rings of a tree from say 1645-1695 a piece of wood from 1630-1680 can be identified from the 1645-1680 overlap and provides us with the weather conditions in 1630-1645. This enables earlier pieces of wood to be identified and so on.

We now have a precise idea of the weather on a year by year basis from before Christ.

If plagues can follow the 11 year sun spot cycle, then why not the stock marker?

However, I still think any 28 day cycles in the gold price are really monthly cycles and are more to do with the calendar than the physical presence of a rock in the sky!

[energyi] 14/3/2003 08:40

Is it Science? Or is it Myth?

[energyi] 30/12/2002 10:49

Yep. And watch for a (temporary?) dollar rebound starting soon.

ANY OTHER FORECASTS?
For the economy? For stocks? For commodities?

(note: have started new threads for:
SUGAr, COFFee, OJ, SOYbeans, CORN, etc.
see I believe we will see some action there in 2003)

CORN & COFFee in particular are worth a look IMO

[hectorp] 29/12/2002 20:46

- I'd like you to be correct re January bullish few weeks, and 10% rally - then close calls or long positions. War could be in February but not January IMO: Bullish news today aalso IMO is that the US will use ' diplomatic effots for some months' to coax N Korea to drop the Nuclear developments of last week. (This will be taken as a relief - check tonights Far Eastern trading eg in Gold- if gold is still around 350 or below in the Morning I'll be assured) .

[energyi] 29/12/2002 20:05

check the timing of this thread,
just before the top, & descent into the JULY and OCT selloffs.

My cheerful forecast now:
A RALLY in Jan.2003 (875 to 960-maybe for SPX)
and then:
ANOTHER BIG DROP to 6000 DOW & SPX equivalent
i.e. lower than the Oct. Low
- - -

OTHER FORECASTS FOR 2003 Stock Price movements?

[energyi] 06/11/2002 14:08

Anatole Kaletsky, writing in the Times compares 2002 with 1992
and found them very similar when it comes to Consumer confidence, etc.
Let's compare stock charts too:

1990-1994:


2000-2004:


More like: 1988-1992: Four Year cycle bottom

[energyi] 01/10/2002 21:16

DOUBLE BOTTOM WITH ASIAN CRISIS???

[energyi] 29/9/2002 16:03

RICHARD RUSSELL THINKS there is a Long way to go:

"So I stick with the time-honored method of determining when stocks are on the 'bear market bottom bargain table.' And it's not a relative method, it's a fixed method based on actual case histories. Following are statistics for the S&P seen at three post-World War Two bear market bottoms-and these were true bear market bottoms.

1949--The S&P sold at 5.4 times earnings while yielding (dividends) 7.6%
1974--The S&P sold at 7.5 times earnings while yielding 5.1%
1980--The S&P sold at 6.8 times earnings while yielding 5.7%

"So you can see that if this bear market ends with values that are anything like the values we've seen at the three most recent bear market bottoms, we've got a long way to go on the downside.

"To refresh your memories, the S&P now sells at 37 times earnings while yielding 1.7%--er, quite a ways from classic bear market bottom valuations."

[energyi] 29/9/2002 16:00

STOCK MARKET LOW before November?:

STOCKMARKET CYCLES / Prepared by Peter Eliades

Several times over the past few decades, we have mentioned a 20-year cycle that is scheduled to bottom once again in 2002. The last two resolutions of that cycle have been amazingly consistent. From the very major cycle bottom registered on April 28th, 1942 below 100 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the very major cycle bottom registered on June 25th, 1962 was a distance of 7363 calendar days. From that major 1962 bottom on June 25th to the final closing low on August 12th, 1982 was a distance of 7353 calendar days. If that cycle is to repeat itself, there would be an important bottom due between September 29th, 2002 (7353 calendar days from August 12th, 1982) and October 9th, 2002 (7363 calendar days from August 12th, 1982).

The repetition of this cycle has obviously not occurred often enough to be statistically significant, but it does give us a reason to be looking for a low. Notice also that no significant decline over the past 36 years ended before the ratio reached a reading of at least 10/1. There have been two periods on the chart where the ratio moved relatively quickly from very low readings below 5% to relatively high readings above 10%, but those two periods required at least a one-year period of time to accommodate such a move. This is one of the major reasons we do not expect to see a long-lasting bottom achieved over the next four-six weeks. There could, of course, be an intermediate-term market low which might last for several months or more, but the potential market bottom over the next month or so.
:LINK:

[energyi] 27/9/2002 08:58

Thanks Druid.
Wish I had taken more shorts back in May, when it was started!
- - -

THE SCREWS are tightening, and this will hurt the US/World economy:

USA Market: New Cash-out Refinancing rules!
Housing Market Update / September 25, 2002

Existing home sales dropped 1.7% to an annual rate of 5.28 million units in August, following a 5.3% increase in the prior month. Sales dropped in the Northeast, Midwest, and South, but rose 2.2% in the West. Although mortgage rates continue to drop, sales of existing homes have dropped in three out of the last four months. The August level of existing home sales is off 12.7% from the peak of 6.05 million units posted in January.

...
The housing market bloom appears to be fading. In addition, Fannie Mae announced new mortgage lending rules for cash-out refinancings. Research at Fannie Mae examining the reasons for the increase in defaults and foreclosures indicated that "cash-out refinance mortgages default at a higher rate than other refinance transactions." Cash from the refinance boom of this year is predicted to sum to roughly $110 billion, 50.0% of which consumers are believed to be spending. Tightening standards for cash-out refinancings should curtail consumer spending in an environment when the economy is already struggling to stay above water. This is certainly not a favorable development for growth and employment in the near term. However, it is a needed measure to prevent a housing market crisis.
:LINK: