Cyprotex Share Discussion Threads

[nilip] 22/8/2010 11:41

Buywell,
Fair comment re. history on this thread. Can't see ADVFN amending the title though.

[cotton4] 22/8/2010 11:07

The real fun begins when you starting projecting forward.e.g if turnover was to increase by 50% next year (CRX have now 170+ new customers and Apredica have 200+ new customers) and on a pe of 15 (growth company) the share price should be nearer 30p. The possibilities are exciting and the brokers note to be issued shortly may be the next castalyst for an upward surge in the sp, in that this will should give visibility re this year.

[cotton4] 22/8/2010 10:13

With regard to my post 1613, I projected turnover of £2.9m and profit of £.520K.So as I admitted the results were dissappointing. However I have had time to reflect and make reference to Buywell's post 1741 where CFO Jon Dootson makes claims that "several hundred thousand of pounds" were lost in Jan/Feb for the reasons given. Now I read "several" as being greater than two, so an extra £300K would have taken turnover up to £2.78 and an extra £400k to £2.88 not a million miles away from my projections.
Lets for argument sake we lost the $400K and turnover under normal circumstances should have been £2.88M, then gross margins would have been £2.448M and profit should have been approx £390K (fixed costs being £2.058 an increase from previous year due to additional staff costs and probably costs associated with the takeover).So had it not been for the lost revenue, the results would have been OK.

However. if turnover should have been £2.88M, then turnover for the second half should be £3.52 (based on 45% being earned in first half as previous years)
This equates to an average of £.587K per month. We know that July was a record month but we don't know what the actual turnover was for July. Historically largest turnover was £5.18m last year.55% of that say earned in second half i.e £2.840m or £.475m per month, so I reckon that £.587 could have been earned in July given that we now have more assays and more customers.

So I have come to the conclusion that £3.52m can be earned in the second half.
At 85% margins = gross profit of £2.992 less fixed costs of £2.058 would give a profit of £.934K added to the £50K already earned gives an annual profit of approx £1m.( in line with market expectations?)

And this is without Apredica, new assays, cross selling between acquired customers coming into the mix. We do know that Apredica has been growing rapidly and CRX has been adding new customers as well, one new strategic customer already added this year.

What transpires over the next few months is anyone's guess, but IMO the reason for the director buys is very apparent, based on what the turnover should have been for the first half and it is little surprise now that the share price is holding up so well. I am more and more of the opinion that 2011 will be an exciting year, once the acquisition has been bedded in and new opportunities have been identified and are starting to bear real fruit, but dyor bearing in mind that reduced turnover reduces profit by 85%, such is the nature of working on such a high gross margin level.

[buywell2] 21/8/2010 08:34

I asked advfn to update the number of shares in issue last week

This is mainly why the P/E has jumped to around 20 NOT the rise to 5p which I predicted a couple of weeks back with a chart prediction not too far from actuality.

I draw your attention to the top of my thread header in this regard, namely

............................... CYPROTEX Share Price targets ..............................
............................................................. By BW ( The sage of Littlehampton)

My expectations for Cyprotex are as follows and are based upon continued profit growth year on year

2010 .............. 7.5p by year end
2011 .............. 15p by year end 2010 profits doubled
2013 .............. 30p by year end 2012 profit growth of circa 50% and 25% in 2013

The above price targets hold true ONLY IF NO MORE SHARES ARE ISSUED following the 44m issued to buy apredica and cellumen, issuing more means the earnings per share decreases and thus the P/E goes higher.

[buywell2] 21/8/2010 08:15

My number TWO pick Source BioScience (SBS) is also about to lift off

Interims out next tuesday



I have been informed by a credible source that my research and comments are being monitored and acted upon.



Small Caps

Buy
Stanley Gibbons
Cyprotex
Source BioScience

It will be interesting to see which of the two wins the race to 10p

[buywell2] 21/8/2010 08:13

I do not want to start another thread just to replace the 2008 or delete it

I think the history of what has transpired from when this thread started and who said what is important.

I also think that any 'new investor' thinking of buying into this company gains a lot from looking back .... especially which posters to take note of and which to not.

What I will do though is ask advfn to do something re changing the thread title , which I think is VERY hard for them to do as a special favor

They might cos I recommended this stock to them on at least two occassions

[nilip] 20/8/2010 22:27

specky,

The repeat performance comment was a little tongue in cheek buy hey,
I've been here for ~5 years, so I think I'm entitled to a little exaggeration :-)

[spekky] 20/8/2010 19:06

nilip

Good luck with the "repeat performance" thing but I'll settle for getting beyond some of the more imminent resistance levels by end of this year.Obviously they could fold easily under a good second half update but for now I'm just content with the steady progress.Only been here for less than a year so pretty chuffed with my judgement (thus far).

[husbod] 20/8/2010 18:10

Good idea nillip - over to you buywell

It would be interesting to know where the share price would have closed if we had not had that 500k sell.

[nilip] 20/8/2010 16:44

A repeat performance of 2003/04 would be most welcome :-)

[nilip] 20/8/2010 16:16

Buywell,

Just a suggestion, but perhaps it's worth considering starting a new thread
given that this one is entitled 'CRX - 2008' ?

As I say, just a suggestion and I'd consider yourself to be the ideal candidate
for the job given your knowledge about the company & sector.

I get the distinct impression that this has now turned a corner and the
prospects for CRX look very very attractive now.


We could see a pretty fast growth curve developing here.


What do others think ?

[nilip] 20/8/2010 16:12

Cotton,

MM's probably happy to get their hands on some stock.

I'd envisage far more demand for the company shares going forward and
significantly more buying than selling from here on as more and more investors
see the potential here - peeps probably don't even know about CRX yet ...

The growth prospects for Cyprotex (Cyprotox :-)) are starting to get noticed.


The CRX growth story starts here ...

[cotton4] 20/8/2010 15:26

Seen the day that 500,000 sell would have dessimated the share price Hasn't moved.Yet

[shadowchaser] 20/8/2010 14:59

And we must remember that Buywell, of course ,
saw all this happening,
way back!

Lol!

-SC

[husbod] 20/8/2010 10:35

Yep the directors seem to be doing everything right at the moment - transformational purchase, record July, massive directors buys and the new toxicology lab up and running as per forecasts (indeed a couple of weeks early). As a shareholder can't complain about any of that.

[nilip] 20/8/2010 10:13

100,000 buys coming through nicely this morning.

Not sure how long the offer price will hold.

Looks like the story is just beginning for CRX from here on ... could turn out to be a very lucrative one.

(Buys going thru plus markets also ...)

[cotton4] 20/8/2010 09:02

I agree. They have more visibility than we have, so the confidence is probably well founded.

[redprince] 20/8/2010 08:58

Hi Cotton -i too feel we have been spoiled but hey that`s okay.Really looking forward to seeing where this goes now.Patience will imvho be handsomely rewarded here.

Very encouraging to see the directors putting their hands in their pockets yesterday and one of them spent £185k.That is a lot of money in any mans book!
A vote of confidence for sure.

[cotton4] 20/8/2010 08:50

Morning Red. I suspect you are right. Had it not been for Jan/Feb sales figures, we would have been well ahead of last year and maybe closer to my targets. However no problems waiting. Interesting months ahead. Broker note, new assays and updates re acquisition. Feel we've been spoiled this year with regard to company announcements.

[redprince] 20/8/2010 08:35

Morn all.Looking good is right imvho.2011 will be the year of growth and we will get a much clearer idea from the full year (2010)or rather the next 6 months of this one.

[spekky] 20/8/2010 07:25

AND....The news has been released thru' PRN as well as RNS which hopefully means it gets a global hit.

[cotton4] 20/8/2010 07:18

At last the tox lab up and running. Maybe have a +ve effect Husbod. Things starting to go in the right direction.

[cotton4] 19/8/2010 16:53

Post seems to have been curtailed. 80m shares held by less than 3% holders or 80 individuals like you (Husbod) and Red. Not a lot readily available.

[cotton4] 19/8/2010 16:49

Revised list of shareholders on website. Looks like less than 40% of shares held by

[cotton4] 19/8/2010 16:43

It would appear that we are not so much under the radar like we used to be. Having re-looked at the results, the loss of a few hundred thousands in revenue in Jan/Feb has made all the difference. e.g if we lost say £400k that would be equivalent to lost profit of £340K at usual margins. What is also encouraging is that we seem to have avoided the "ramp brigade" so far. Long may it continue.