CT Property Share Discussion Threads

[nexusltd] 17/2/2022 19:02

I don't know how to read that. A close at the high is good. Does the abrupt increase in spread from 90p offer to clearing at 92.60p suggest a scarcity of stock?

An historical note to ponder; the 1 in 200 years Great Storm of 1987, 80-90 mph winds, on Thursday/Friday, Seven Oaks reduced to one, preceded Black Monday on October 19. Storm Eunice?

[flyfisher] 17/2/2022 16:45

A positive closing auction, is that the end of a stock overhang?

[skyship] 17/2/2022 08:24

janeann - as advised by others, Retail & Retail Warehouse are not the same! Retail - weak, but now bottomed out. Retail Warehouse - booming; and almost matching Industrial for valuation gains throughout the pandemic.

BREI asset split:

# Office - 23%
# Industrial - 53%
# Retail - 6%
# Retail Warehouse - 18%

A good site to view the Retail / Retail Warehouse difference is the HCFT website:

[spectoacc] 17/2/2022 07:22

Agree with @riverman77 - Retail has had its crash already, office may (or may not, if high quality) be to come.

But bottom line is - if there was anything much wrong with BREI's portfolio, they wouldn't be doing c.3p/month in NAV recently :)

[alan pt] 16/2/2022 20:49

No, definitely not designer outlet! Think more B&M, home bargains, DFS, Iceland, pets at home, maybe a B&Q if you're lucky

The EPIC portfolio should give you the general idea [...]

[janeann] 16/2/2022 20:33

Thanks Alan... I also hold SUPR... need some more but will wait for a fund raise to get a better price!

The question at present for me is exactly what 'out of town retail' is? I didntthing this was warehousing but if its out of town shopping malls (designer outlet in york etc) Id be concerned

[alan pt] 16/2/2022 20:22

Retail warehouse aka retail park. It's retail but separate units with parking

Less impacted by ecommerce (and pandemic) due to lower rents and potential for use as "click & collect" or even local delivery hub

Might include an Aldi or Lidl, but less likely Sainsbury/Tesco/Asda, those are almost a separate sub-sector again (look at SUPR)

[riverman77] 16/2/2022 20:02

I would personally be more concerned about office exposure than retail at this point. BREI does have some offices, but I think more than priced into on current discount.

[janeann] 16/2/2022 20:01

well I based out of town retail as retail not warehousing.........

Industrial 50.6
Retail 6.5
Offices 24.6
Out of Town Retail 18.3

will dig a little deeper..........

(and less worried if its supermarkets!)

[alan pt] 16/2/2022 19:55

janeann BREI is 18% retail warehouse, only 6% retail high st (actually less than SREI), these sub-sectors are performing quite differently

Look over on the EPIC thread (or the CP+ thread) for more discussion on this

[janeann] 16/2/2022 19:34

I am a long term holder of srei and pctn. Have been contemplating this for a while and the discount to NAV makes it quite appealing, but the approx 24% retail proerty level puts me off. Am I worrying too much - anyone any comments about this?

[flyfisher] 16/2/2022 18:10

BREI continues to be unloved, despite the 26% discount to nav. Perhaps increasing leverage with an acquisition would allow a dividend increase and a little more support.

I bought in today.

[skyship] 11/2/2022 09:25

But down again this morning!

What I would really like to see here is a return to the 1.25p/Qtr dividend, even if uncovered. That level was paid every quarter from Q3'13 - Q1'20.

The current prospective 4p pa dividend provides a yield of 4.46% @ 89.60p; but 5p would provide 5.58%.

[skyship] 10/2/2022 17:01

Good to see them close back above 90p; and a 199k UT @ 91p.

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2022 14:08

Had a small amount.

Rate the Manager and he's done a pretty decent job navigating the last
few years. His hands effectively tied on a buy back during the market plunge by size of BREI/liquidity considerations.

Big move to large cap defensives over the last 6-8 weeks, BATS up nearly 15% in the last month.

[nickrl] 10/2/2022 12:20

Downswing seem coincide with latest Peter Lowe video on BMO site!!

hxxps://www.bmogam.com/real-estate-investments-ltd/

Not as cringe worthy as previous ones in the series though!

Oh and doesn't really give any new info but explained better where £5m has gone on CAPEX.

[spectoacc] 10/2/2022 11:37

@Alan PT - "I'm surprised and a little concerned that the growth seems to have accelerated rather than plateaued in recent updates though, that does seem a little bubbly."


My view too.

Not too concerned about interest rates - traditionally it's new supply that does it, and not sure there's currently the manpower or materials (or PP'd land), or works-in-progress.

Need to see rents keep climbing, as they should. Fat and rising NAVs are all very well, but it's income that ultimately matters.

[essentialinvestor] 10/2/2022 11:34

Yup, accept the demand and scarcity aspect. How long will that last,
might just be something to stay mindful of over the medium term.

[nexusltd] 10/2/2022 11:33

@EssentialInvestor. No concerns on logistics at the present time. Brexit, Covid,& labour shortages have shifted the paradigm from just-in-time to supply chain resilience to better cope with unknowable events. In post #1341 of I clipped how demand last year was very high. Presently demand exceeds supply. Segro report next week, Friday 18th. I hold Segro.

[alan pt] 10/2/2022 11:30

Brexit created a permanent increase in need, growth of ecommerce created a permanent increase in need

New "last mile" sites are hard to find and expensive, big box distribution sites are sticky due to tenant investment in fitting out

I'm surprised and a little concerned that the growth seems to have accelerated rather than plateaued in recent updates though, that does seem a little bubbly

[alan pt] 10/2/2022 10:50

Just seems to be stuck on a perpetual discount to others for no obvious reason. Still, if PCTN ever do turn words into actions, that could make it a nice target

[skyship] 10/2/2022 10:27

~Hadn't expected these to fall back below 90p!

89.6p provides a 26% NAV discount - seems really good value versus all peers.

Actually made a small 10k top-up @ 89.4p....

[alan pt] 25/1/2022 15:02

Citywire piece on BREI today: hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/bmo-real-estate-bucks-ftse-falls-with-strong-quarterly-update/a2377579

Love this quote: "JPMorgan Cazenove analyst Christopher Brown said: ‘A double digit NAV total return in one quarter is an exceptionally strong result for BREI and shows the continued strength of the industrial property sector and to a lesser extent the recovery of values of retail warehouse assets.

‘Rent collection is almost back to pre Covid-19 levels and for BREI this has been accelerated by shifting its portfolio towards industrial property,’ he said maintaining a ‘neutral’; rating."

ie Everything is great! But don't buy it!

[skyship] 25/1/2022 12:55

Thnx HP. You are correct - the name of the thread is immutable.

[hugepants] 25/1/2022 12:31

OK but I don't think the thread title can be changed.

There is a summary balance sheet in the latest update. It looks like LTV still around 25%. Perhaps because they did pay more for the 2 recent acquisitions than they received from the office disposal.