Conduity Capital Share Discussion Threads

[cerrito] 06/6/2007 09:23

Given the recent strength of emerging markets been having a look at getting back into these.
The big picture is that neither AUM or the sp(even adjusting for a US4.6c april dividend payment) have reflected increase in em indices.
AUM has gone up from a year end E4685m to a 1.1.07 figure of E4842m.
In the circumstances NAV growth in the 2 biggest hedge funds have been respectable but nothing to set the house on fire-in the year to 1.5.07 Occo East Europe up from $184.7 to $206 and OCCO Global Emerging from $13.82 to $15.
Somehow nothing to inspire a purchase.
Any views?

[cerrito] 07/5/2007 14:44

Their share price does not reflect the current high price in emerging market fixed income and equities- nor indeed the ashmore price.
I was looking to get back in but am put off by the fact that they have their AGM in the I of Man and thereseems to be no opportunity for retail investors to look management in the eye in London.
Anyone following this?

[cerrito] 20/2/2007 11:58

I have lightened my position in this.
Partially to protect myself in the event-probably unlikely-that any japan interest rate rise might bring an end to the carry trade.
More was fund specific...the fact that in the last quarter people were taking money out of the fund to the extent of $181m and indeed anaylsis of the Jan 31 figures suggest people taking funds out of the Magna Global Emerging Markets Fund during Jan.
The not unexpected fall in non crystalized accrued performance funds does not inspire confidence.
Kept a core holding purchased sub 70p but not convinced that the current price reflects the risk.
Anyone have any views on this?

[kingfast] 19/1/2007 10:48

Getting hammered back down by the 3750 algorithmic trade.

[m4m] 28/12/2006 17:58

Some big sells today ?

RSI looking close to being overbought on the 6mthly imo

[hectorp] 28/12/2006 08:51

Very quiet for 3 weeks, but the chart and RSI still look very supportive.

[hectorp] 07/12/2006 18:01

Absolute returns, lol, not really. But absolutely focussed on commissions, yes.

[hectorp] 30/11/2006 18:10

Pound fell 200 points against the dollar. Will this instigate selling as returns are 'reported' in dollars? after all earnings are not in USD? I think not..

[hectorp] 29/11/2006 13:56

Some may find now, a good time to top up. ( note time of my post).
0h - not advestment advice!
H.

[hectorp] 27/11/2006 18:19

I suspect Cerrito you are over-concentating on the currency aspect of the dynamic. I agree of course with much of your comments on that score and I fully expect a weaker USD. Do we know any one here who does not ?

But as with many good situations, as we DO see at CCAP, the attractions of the markets involvd are overwhelmingly more significant.
PS as an aside anyone who is keenly motivated to consider currency when making investment decisions should probably have a gold position? Have you considered this, if not, why not? Gold price is a counterplay to the dollar price of course. See our AU thread.
I will remain invested.
H.

[cerrito] 26/11/2006 20:33

was going top buy some more then the price went away...presumably any fall in the $ will not help here as much of their income will be $ denominated..although I guess all the bonuses will be as well...watching to see what happens with the carry trade.. first got concerned with rise in yen interest rates but now any suggestions that $ weakness will provoke the unwinding of these will hit CCAP, I assume.
guess as and when i have the energy I should see how this compares to ashmore..anyone done this yet??
If indeed Friday's transactions of 2.6m and 1.9m were both sales then there must be support here.

[hectorp] 23/11/2006 18:43

Cerrito.. and anyone interested.. I'd like to hope that CCAP is not strongly invested in Taiwan as I see that as a drag on progress if so. I better find out. Certain territories will not do so well next year, otherers will prosper , do our Managers know what we do.

[hectorp] 23/11/2006 18:33

I've no intention of selling as I detect a prolongued bull market in the Far east. Maybe 90 will come maybe not, but I will give it all time.

[m4m] 23/11/2006 12:30

You got a price target to sell at Hec?

Get past 80 and it looks clear to 90

[hectorp] 23/11/2006 09:57

Impressive ..

[hectorp] 21/11/2006 08:30

Starting to move up again..

[hectorp] 08/11/2006 14:19

CCAp over a million trades in the past hour. The price has not slipped so it is unlikely they are sells.

[m4m] 07/11/2006 19:00

lol india, aye good luck Hectorp

Charts look positive

[india93] 07/11/2006 18:52

ahhhhhh... hectorp - i'm selling lol

[hectorp] 07/11/2006 11:33

Oh good, we are up 3.5p. Wonder why that is. :-) now we need to test September's 74p.

the Q3 update a few weeks ago suggests emeging markets are undervalued..
I suspect subscriptions will exceed redepptions this quarter...

'In the third quarter net redemptions reduced to 92 mln usd.
"In aggregate, and despite this volatility, during the first nine months of
the year net inflows -- excluding the effect of Novy Neft -- were positive at
186 mln usd," Sutcliffe said.
The firm said it continues to believe emerging markets are fundamentally
undervalued compared with developed markets, "and offer superior growth
opportunities".

[hectorp] 06/11/2006 22:37

No I do not, I'm afraid.

[cerrito] 03/11/2006 20:44

well done Hectcorp
I have allowed myself to be distracted so did not look at it during the week...not sure that China per se is so important to them I see that the onde dedicated China fund Magna Greater China which no doubt includes Taiwan and HK has only Euro 42m and Occo Asia has Euro40.94m under management
need to focus next week which to me looks like getting the prospecvtus where no doubt the formulae for how their performance fees and the bonuses they pay are covered.
do you have a copy of the prospectus??

[hectorp] 31/10/2006 13:52

A fair old bit of buying going on now, though two batches are mine. I'm forcing the ask up.. can't be helped.

[hectorp] 31/10/2006 12:35

I agree in general, Cerrito.
I'm not suggesting the share itself is 'cheap' but its now relatively so compared with its highs over 30% down this year, but mainly as a play on Emerging markets and presumably the far east countries?
I gain the impression they may do well in 2007, which is not the view of a few months ago. It depends if you believe the China story will not collapse when the US turns down.
I'm intersted in taking this risk and accordingly my money is heading into CCAP. Discussion very welcome.