Cleardebt Share Discussion Threads

[pugg1ey] 07/6/2011 22:15

see FRP lost another 12% today, lost nearly 50% since profit warning

[moreforus] 07/6/2011 21:22

Read the report from equity development - it was written as a direct consequence of the frp news and with full cooperation of the company.

End of year this month ...

[pugg1ey] 07/6/2011 20:59

500K dumped at 1.85p. are we due a trading update soon?

[moreforus] 31/5/2011 09:47

ClearDebt Group plc
An uninformed reaction
ClearDebt offers debt resolution services, principally IVAs and DMPs
but also PTDs in Scotland, using a state-of-the-art web-based system
for initial contact and individual supervision of all the later stages in
the process, resulting in a higher success rate and lower overall costs
than its competitors.
The market has clearly over-reacted to Fairpoint‟s trading statement on
Monday, 23
rd
May. They issued a profits warning because the Coalition‟s
"austerity" policies are resulting in fewer people declaring themselves
insolvent than under the previous government and said that they expected
profits to be "substantially lower" than previously forecast, but anticipated a
significant recovery in 2012, with a doubling of its non-IVA revenues on top
of a recovery in the IVA market.
 Fairpoint‟s share price subsequently fell by one-third and, as a side-effect,
ClearDebt‟s share price fell by one-eighth before recovering a few percent,
although the latter has not needed to issue a profits warning.
 Fairpoint mentioned two problems affecting it: the decline in the number
of IVAs (when they had expected a small increase) and the smaller size of
IVAs approved, and the income from them, relative to their business plan.
It is probable that Fairpoint is also suffering from a downturn in the
market for Debt Management Plans as DMPs are driven by the same
economic sources as IVAs: other commentators also appear to think so,
since the downgrade to forecasts exceed that attributable to the decline in
IVAs.
 We think that Fairpoint‟s share price fall is over-done and, even if it was
not, we should still consider that ClearDebt‟s decline is excessive and
verges on the irrational.
For the sector as a whole the problems described by Fairpoint are „temporary‟
and are expected to fade away towards the end of 2011 as cuts in public
spending start to bite on unemployment levels and rises in interest rates
make it harder/impossible for over-indebted consumers to keep up interest
payments on their debt.


Other factors that we think investors should note are that:
 ClearDebt is increasing volume and, as per the preceding table, gaining
market share (it had more IVAs passed in the first seven months of 2010/11
than in any previous full year)
 We do not yet know how many ClearDebt IVAs were approved in the first
quarter of 2011, but the January number (all January numbers are seasonally
depressed as fewer are submitted over Christmas) was 77, a 285% increase
on January 2010...
 ClearDebt already had a lower rating on a PFER basis than Fairpoint prior to
the announcement and its share price had already fallen by one-third from its
2011 peak in the last three months
 Also, the decline in the number of IVAs approved and the lower average fee
has a less geared impact on ClearDebt because it has low costs (both fixed
and variable): the latest published data shows ClearDebt‟s EBITDA on IVAs as
an attractive 39.6%. This is despite taking a larger proportion of the smaller
IVAs that reduce fees and margins, although their conservative accounting
policies reduce the difference reported at the pre-tax level.
Earlier this month ClearDebt was rated at 6.7x its broker‟s forecast of 2011 eps
but now it is only 4x. Despite its impending year end, it has seen no need to issue
a warning in respect of those market expectations.
Our opinion is that a slowdown in the market will merely slow ClearDebt‟s growth
rather than cause an actual fall in its profits; also ClearDebt‟s reported profits will
rise as the amortisation charge on the assets acquired from the administrator of
"Relax" runs out. Even if earnings per share were to be 10% below the house
broker‟s forecast, the current share price would be trading on less than five times
eps for 2010-11.
Conclusion
Fairpoint has warned of a temporary one-off drop in earnings per share
of, say, 3p (probably less) and its share price has declined by 31p, which
I can safely say is excessive; ClearDebt has issued no warning, but its
share price fell by one-eighth, which I think is irrational.
We think that ClearDebt's current share price should be at least 3.6p, and
preferably 4.5p, which is double the current price.

[moreforus] 31/5/2011 09:47

just out


We think that ClearDebt's current share price should be at least 3.6p, and

preferably 4.5p, which is double the current price.

[moreforus] 27/5/2011 10:17

EOY June 2011 EPS 0.5p

EOY June 2012 EPS 0.7p

can buy at 2p...

bonkers

[moreforus] 27/5/2011 10:16

Whilst CLEA remains a small player in a fragmented market, it has
accumulated a 1% market share of IVA's passed during 2H10 and this greater visibility
and reputation will add to the group's ability to attract new business going forward.
Based on our full year EBITDA forecast of £2.1m the EV/EBITDA (using interim cash of
£0.5m) is an undemanding 5.7x and PER is 6.7x. We maintain our BUY
recommendation and 3.6p price target

[moreforus] 27/5/2011 09:58

YEP

so accumulate

broker says EPS 0.50p for THIS YEAR

so 5p on a p/e of 10.....

[ericardlussa] 27/5/2011 09:57

report from Equity Develoment says share price should be double the current levels..... fall way overdone.

[alidaf] 25/5/2011 08:40

95K at 2.1

[pugg1ey] 25/5/2011 08:37

I was asking alidaf

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:35

?? i didnt ?

i might have had chunk earlier (-;

wish i;d loaded up at 1.8p...

[pugg1ey] 25/5/2011 08:33

how many did you buy on PLUS?

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:32

yep and a p/e of 3.3 vs current year and 2 vs next

exploit the aim madness and buy a REAL bargain!!

[alidaf] 25/5/2011 08:31

Half of IVA's on the IVA register using this group so only way is up really!

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:28

lmao

so now its cheap

[alidaf] 25/5/2011 08:28

Are many trades going through on plus as my buy not showing up??

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:11

lace Order
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BUYING 50,000 of CLEARDEBT
Action Buy
Quantity 50,000 Shares
Symbol CLEA
Settlement Period T+3
Company Name CLEARDEBT
Indicative Price
Bid £0.0195
Offer £0.02
Market Currency GBP Sterling
Settlement Currency GBP Sterling
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[pugg1ey] 25/5/2011 08:09

you missed my edit where I think the conversion was 1.8p/share on the loan

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:06

i agree this is a bargain down here its fallen 50% on better fundies due to aim madness

blue!!

[pugg1ey] 25/5/2011 08:05

nope. just lazy with copy and paste :-)

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 08:02

250k buy

level 2 firmed

expect to see blue today

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 07:49

i think yesterday was capitulation eye...

[eye2] 25/5/2011 07:48

this looks a screaming buy opp here

[moreforus] 25/5/2011 07:19

are you shy about posting here puggley?

Tue 19:37
Re: 2.1p aim flown past :D
Pugg1ey

added 100K at around 1.95p. anything sub 2p is a 'bargain' perhaps the only issue is if the loan is repaid by diluting shares at 1.7p or cash (or a mixture of both). regardless, CLEA is making money and 'hopefully' may see a return on my investment via a dividend (soon?)