Citius Resources Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 24/10/2014 23:17

ETI. NAV=288 SP=120
DJAN. NAV=101.88 SP=50

for starters

[loafofbread] 24/10/2014 22:36

Jeff,

Can you list the other property plays you mention that sit at a substantial discount to NAV.

TIA

[jeffian] 24/10/2014 19:26

There are plenty of companies that trade at a discount to their NAV. That just reflects the market's view of the likelihood of shareholders obtaining that value any time soon. Hopefully, CRES's NAV will continue to grow as planning permissions are obtained and land sold or developed, but this is something that is likely to take years to achieve, so in the meantime the share price will be discounted. If someone promised to pay you £1 in 5 years time, would you be happy to pay them £1 for that right today? No, because a) you'd lose interest and the use of that money in the meantime and b) there's the risk he won't pay you back. Same here.

[strutt12] 24/10/2014 17:45

If you look at NAV then we should be going up in price as our valuations go up each time.
Net assets of £247.3m (FY: £234.7m)
Net assets per share of 9.6 pence (FY13: 9.1 pence)

So our discount to NAV is increasing nearly 50% now and I think at the last statement is was about 34%??

[jeffian] 24/10/2014 15:39

I think what you're missing is that this is a play on asset value, not a normal revenue/profit trading company. 73% of Harworth's H1 profit was actually a 'valuation gain' (i.e. non-cash). This is unlikely to be repeated every period, and is just as capable of going down as going up, so it is inappropriate to ascribe a P/E ratio to it as if it was a stable and growing income stream. The likelihood is that value will be realised in 'lumps' over the long term as planning permissions are obtained and developments come on stream. I think a better way of looking at value is to look at NAV discounted for risk and delay.

[strutt12] 24/10/2014 14:51

Harworth Estate reported pretax profit of GBP12.6 million during the first half, of which Coalfield's share was GBP3.2 million. assume the same for the second half gives full year of GBP6.4 Million which gives us a PE ratio of 5 with no debt !! am I missing something?

[strutt12] 14/10/2014 13:13

Jeffian,

Every month the company realise a bit more value from their land and collect more rent from their tenants and yet the value of the company goes down.

[jeffian] 14/10/2014 09:48

strutt12,
See #430. How many years before they realise that?

[strutt12] 14/10/2014 08:38

Net assets per share of 9.6 pence (FY13: 9.1 pence)

And yet the share price still falls unbelievable!!

[freddie ferret] 08/10/2014 17:22

A Y trade, looks like somebodies sold a lot today.

[jeffian] 06/10/2014 15:41

As I said in 427, I think it's a timing issue, finkie. It's going to take years to unlock that value via planning permissions and development. 9.6p maybe, but how many years before you get your hands on it, hence the discount IMHO.

[finkie] 06/10/2014 08:48

Net assets 9.6p and growing as more planning consents are released price 6p I wonder why more people aren't buying at this point.....what is the life expectancy of harworth I wonder as they will at some point work through all the assets surely..

[strutt12] 13/8/2014 07:40

· Net assets of £58.4m (FY13: £55.2m)

· Net assets per share of 9.6 pence (FY13: 9.1 pence)

· Focus on 24.9% investment in Harworth Estates whose assets include:

- Investment properties valued at £283.7m (FY13: £278.5m); and

- Net assets of £247.3m (FY: £234.7m)

· No debt, positive cash balance

· Profit from continuing operations before tax in the period of £3.2m (HY13 loss of £0.1m, FY13 profit of £3.3m) principally from the Group's investment in Harworth Estates

[jeffian] 12/6/2014 09:32

I think this is likely to be a 'slow burner' with value released over time through the development of sites. Personally, I doubt there'll be any fireworks.

[dazzaa] 12/6/2014 09:23

Let's hope so.

[999rp] 12/6/2014 07:47

Should be an interesting day and tomorrow, the Chancellor of the Exchequer will be announcing policy on Brownfield Sites, There is a slim chance that new policy change may help, who knows..

[jeffian] 19/5/2014 11:00

Nothing too specific in the IMS, understandably, but a few encouraging straws in the wind -

"Significant disposals so far this year....all at above book value. The property market in the regions in which HEL operates continues to show signs of improvement,......providing a sound base for HEL to deliver long term value for its shareholders."

[freddie ferret] 17/4/2014 16:15

Trades all seem to be going through at the bid price on LSE. I think there must be lots of buys on ISDX otherwise the price would be falling.

[strutt12] 28/3/2014 09:00

Got to let the directors buy in cheap ;-)

[folderboy] 28/3/2014 08:55

Down! Ridiculous.

[strutt12] 28/3/2014 07:50

Harworth Estates has performed strongly in its first year of trading as an independent property development company. Net assets increased to GBP235m (2012: GBP222m) on a property portfolio value of GBP278m (2012: GBP260m). A return of GBP33m was delivered on the opening property portfolio of GBP260m, with GBP24.5m from increases in valuation at year end, GBP8.3m by way of profit on its GBP19m of asset sales in the year, and GBP1.4m from operating activities.

NAV 9.1p!!!!

[stargazer4] 07/3/2014 08:51

What is really interesting is the ever closening ties between Peel and Harworth, regardless of the figures. It's why I bought CRES in the first place.

[jeffian] 07/3/2014 08:20

"developed value". Try taking off development and finance costs!

[strutt12] 07/3/2014 08:15

Bear with me on this, 4bn potential value 25% belonging to Harworth 1bn, 24.9% belonging to Coalfield 250 Million divided by 605 million shares 41.23p per share. How am I doing so far?????

hxxp://www.link2portal.com/peel-group-launch-logistics-division

North-west developer The Peel Group is set to unveil a new logistics division that will have the biggest logistics development land bank in the UK, according to one source.

Speaking to Property Week, Peel development manager Matt Fitton said the group will pool its industrial sites with those owned by Peel Ports and Harworth Estates in order to form Peel Logistics to capitalise on the improving big sheds market.
Peel Logistics' land bank will amount to 5,674 acres – with a potential developed value of £4bn. In total it could accommodate 60m sq ft of sheds.
Of the land that will be marketed by Peel Logistics, 50% is owned by Peel Group, with Peel Ports and Harworth each contributing the remaining 25%.
It is understood the plan will be unveiled at real estate show MIPIM, 11 -14 March 2014. It is also understood that Fitton will lead the new division.
"The market for design-and-build sheds is coming back," he said.