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BGL Bullabulling

4.25
0.00 (0.00%)
09 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Bullabulling LSE:BGL London Ordinary Share AU000000BAB9 ORD NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.00% 4.25 0.00 01:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
  -
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 4.25 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
07/5/202421:57Bellevue Gold (ASX)7
22/7/201514:33Bullabulling Gold - We've seen the lows7,007
21/7/201320:35BGL - Value just a mirage?-
21/6/201314:25Bullabulling Gold Limited4,971
28/11/201207:23What Next ?11

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Posted at 07/5/2024 21:57 by stu31
ASX Announcement
7 May 2024

Commercial production declared as plant expansion studies commence
As ramp-up gains momentum, focus turns to low capital intensive organic growth
Bellevue Gold Limited (Bellevue or Company) (ASX: BGL) is pleased to advise that commercial production has been declared at the Bellevue Gold Project in WA.
The declaration follows the highly successful commissioning process, which has seen Bellevue ramp up production and cashflow.
Positive free cash flow1 has been delivered over the three months to 30 April 2024. Production totalled 37,338 ounces in the March 2024 quarter, putting the Company on track to achieve guidance of 75,000 to 85,000 ounces for the six months to 30 June 2024.
Bellevue will publish FY25 production and cost guidance as part of its maiden multi-year outlook, which is expected to be released in July 2024 following completion of budget and life of mine planning activities.
Expansion studies underway
As a part of this multi-year outlook, studies are underway on maximising the potential of the Bellevue Gold Project by expanding the plant beyond its current nameplate operating rate of 1Mtpa.
The plant was designed to enable throughput capacity to be increased from 1Mtpa to 1.2Mtpa with no material capital expenditure required. To confirm this, the plant was operated at an annualised throughput rate of 1.2Mt for a week during February 2024 with no material issues arising, providing confidence that this rate can be achieved on a consistent basis.
Bellevue has commenced a scoping level study on a plant expansion to 1.5Mtpa. This study will investigate capital requirements for the expansion and include non-processing infrastructure. This study is expected to be completed in H1 FY25.
Optimisation and design studies are focussed on maximising the value of the Bellevue Gold Project through the delivery of low capital intensive, organic production growth.
Power station update
As part of Bellevue’s strategy to achieve its aspirational goal of being a net-zero gold producer by 2026, change over to the thermal and renewable power solution has begun, switching from the diesel power plant used during the commissioning period. The thermal LNG components of the power plant have been fully completed and
commissioned and are now providing base load power. Installation of the initial 20MW solar array has been completed with the first 7MW being now commissioned. Earthworks begin this week on the 24MW wind power turbines with completion and commissioning expected in Q1 CY25.

Bellevue Managing Director Darren Stralow said: “We are now really hitting our straps, with the commissioning and production ramp up proceeding well and free cash flow growing.
“In parallel with the ramp up, we are accelerating the next leg of our organic growth strategy, which centres on increasing throughput by 50% to 1.5Mtpa.
“As well as increasing production and cashflow, this would enable us to leverage existing infrastructure, drive further economies of scale and unlock greater value from our exceptional high-grade orebody.
“Low capital intensity organic growth of this nature is at the heart of our strategy to maximise the financial and overall returns for all our stakeholders”
Posted at 24/4/2024 19:18 by stu31
ASX Announcement
18 April 2024

March 2024 Quarterly Report
Bellevue makes strong start to free cash generation as production ramps up to plan
Normalised free cashflow1 of $20m for the quarter highlights the project’s capacity
to generate significant free cashflow as it moves towards steady-state production
Operations
• Production ramp up firmly on track with total production of 37,338oz in March 2024 quarter;
Guidance maintained at 75,000-85,000oz for six months to 30 June 2024
• Strong performance across all key metrics, with production growth driven by higher ore grade
as underground mining continues to deliver increasing stope tonnages to the mill
• In March 2024, processing head grade was 5.8 g/t gold with 56.3kt stope tonnes mined;
Importantly, the development head grade was 9.2 g/t gold in the month, highlighting the outlook for further higher-grade stoping production in the June 2024 quarter
• Plant throughput maintained at 1Mtpa nameplate capacity in the quarter with an average of 86k tonnes of ore milled per month
• On track to declare commercial production in the June 2024 quarter with full-year FY25 production and cost guidance expected to be published soon after
• Gold poured was 36,881oz and gold sold totalled 32,893oz, with 13,721oz poured in March 2024
• All five independent mining areas accessed from the Paris Portal are currently being mined, with stoping underway at Upper & Lower Armand, Marceline, Deacon Main and Bellevue South Corporate
• Free cash generated in February and March, setting up Bellevue for declaration of commercial production during the June 2024 quarter (see Figure 1)
• Production of 37koz generated normalised free cashflow1 of ~$20m for the quarter; continued production ramp up sets platform for significant growth in free cash flow in June 2024 quarter
• Creditor payments up to date and in accordance with payment terms, after payment of ~$18m early in the March 2024 quarter relating to 2H CY23 ramp up (including ~$4m of pre-production infrastructure costs)
1 Free cash flow calculated as the sum of operating and investing cash flows, plus or minus the movement in opening and closing gold dore and bullion value (at closing quarter end gold price). March 2024 quarter normalised for amounts paid in January and February 2024 that related to H1 FY24 (~$18m, including ~$4m of pre-production infrastructure costs), such adjustments not expected in subsequent quarters. Refer to Figure 1 on page 6.

• Total liquidity of $40m at the end of the March 2024 quarter, after paying ~$12m of nonrecurring pre-production infrastructure costs (inclusive of the ~$4m related to 2H CY23) and $10.4m of debt servicing ($4.8m interest and first debt principal repayment of $5.6m)
• Non-recurring pre-production infrastructure costs paid for in the March 2024 quarter included ~$2m for the Tribune box cut/open pit and ~$10m of construction capital, including payments for 2 primary vent fans ($4m)
• The Bellevue Gold mine was officially opened on 13 March 2024 by the Western Australia Minister for Mines and Petroleum Hon. David Michael
Geology
• Exceptionally high-grade ore shoot defined at 1.4Moz Deacon Main lode with assays significantly higher than those in the Resource estimates used for mine planning; Stoping of this area is expected to commence this quarter
• This shoot is similar to the high pyrrhotite ore shoots mined historically at Bellevue and is characterised by exceptional grade and continuity and remains open down plunge. Results include2:
o 10.8m @ 66.8 g/t gold o 14.0m @ 49.4 g/t gold
o 8.9m @ 71.1 g/t gold o 8.4m @ 50.1 g/t gold
o 7.5m @ 49.8 g/t gold o 9.5m @ 35.4 g/t gold
• Drilling also highlighted potential for another six high-grade shoots in the greater Deacon Main area with the broad-spaced high pyrrhotite drill intersections containing similar characteristics to the newly identified shoot. Results include2
:
o 30.2m @ 11.33 g/t gold (including 2.7m @ 61.6 g/t gold and 6.9m @ 21.5 g/t
gold)
o 8.7m @ 34.4 g/t gold o 8.1m @ 16.0 g/t gold
o 4.8m @ 55.7 g/t gold o 3.6m @ 53.1 g/t gold
o 4.1m @ 24.2 g/t gold o 3.0m @ 28.0 g/t gold
• Another underground rig is being mobilised to expedite Deacon Main infill drilling
Renewable energy initiatives
• Thermal power station construction is well advanced and modules for the first 20MW solar farm are now installed, with commissioning expected to be completed during the June 2024 quarter, a further 7MW of solar capacity is forecast to be completed in Q1 FY25
• Construction of wind power turbines expected to begin mid-CY24 in line with the Company’s aspirational goal to achieve net-zero emissions by 2026
2 For drilling results refer to ASX announcement dated 19 March 2024.

Bellevue Managing Director Darren Stralow said: “Our highly successful mining and production ramp up has enabled us to make a very strong transition to free cash generation.
“The production ramp up is proceeding to plan, with tonnages and mill throughput rates well on budget. And now we can see that the grade is hitting the mark too.
“The free cash we generated as production ramped up over the course of the March quarter highlights the huge cashflow generating capacity of this project as we move towards steady-state production and unit costs come down accordingly.
“We are comfortably on track to meet our production guidance of 75,000-85,000oz for the six months to June 30, generating increased free cashflow in the process and paving the way for the declaration of commercial production in the coming quarter”.
Operations Safety
Bellevue Gold Limited (Bellevue or Company) (ASX: BGL) had zero LTIs recorded for the reporting period.
Gold production continues to build month on month
With the process plant maintaining steady state throughput; month on month gold production continued to increase throughout the reporting period driven by increasing grade. Underground mining has started to see the benefits of the multiple work areas and access to higher grade areas with the mined grade increasing ~50% relative to the December 2023 quarter to 6.0 g/t gold. Total underground ore tonnes have also continued to increase 17% quarter on quarter with further improvement in underground ore tonnes forecast into the June 2024 quarter.
Posted at 18/3/2024 23:07 by stu31
ASX Announcement
19 March 2024

Discovery of extremely high-grade shoot bolsters early production plan
Assays of up to 374 g/t gold show the grade of this new shoot will significantly exceed the Resource estimate in the area; Drilling also highlights potential for six more similar shoots
Key Points
• Exceptionally high-grade ore shoot defined at 1.4Moz Deacon ore body with assays significantly higher than those in the Resource estimates used for mine planning (see Figure 4)
• This shoot is similar to the high pyrrhotite ore shoots mined historically at the nearby Bellevue lode and is characterised by exceptional grade and continuity and remains open down plunge
• The recent results, which are close to true width (~80%), include:
o 10.8m @ 66.8 g/t gold o 14.0m @ 49.4 g/t gold
o 8.9m @ 71.1 g/t gold o 8.4m @ 50.1 g/t gold
o 7.5m @ 49.8 g/t gold o 9.5m @ 35.4 g/t gold
o 7.8m @ 33.7 g/t gold o 10.6m @ 24.7 g/t gold
o 8.4m @ 29.9 g/t gold o 5.6m @ 39.1 g/t gold
o 3.2m @ 59.4 g/t gold o 0.5m @ 374.0 g/t gold
o 6.9m @ 25.4 g/t gold o 2.2m @ 72.4 g/t gold
o 7.3m @ 21.1 g/t gold o 4.1m @ 35.1 g/t gold
o 4.5m @ 26.2 g/t gold
• Drilling has also highlighted potential for another six high-grade shoots in the greater Deacon Main area (see Figure 7), with recent broad-spaced high pyrrhotite drill intersections containing similar characteristics to this newly-identified shoot. Results include:
o 30.2m @ 11.33 g/t gold (including 2.7m @ 61.6g/t gold and 6.9m @ 21.5 g/t gold)
o 8.7m @ 34.4 g/t gold o 8.1m @ 16.0 g/t gold
o 4.8m @ 55.7 g/t gold o 3.6m @ 53.1 g/t gold
o 4.1m @ 24.2 g/t gold o 3.0m @ 28.0 g/t gold
• In light of these results, another underground drill rig is being mobilised to expedite Deacon Main infill drilling

Bellevue Gold Limited (Bellevue or Company) (ASX: BGL) is pleased to report that recent infill drilling at Deacon Main has delineated a major high-grade ore shoot in the near-mine schedule.
Bellevue Managing Director Darren Stralow said: “These results replicate what the Bellevue Mine was historically known for: very high-grade gold contained in short strike structures.
“With infill results significantly out-performing the Resource estimate in the area, this high-grade ore will supplement the early mine plan and ensure that we continue to see strong grade and solid production results as we ramp up to full-scale production.
“While this area has the potential to provide upside to the near-term mine plan, we’re also excited about the multiple analogous targets along the Deacon Shear which we can target with further underground drilling as drill platforms become available”.
Posted at 13/3/2024 16:54 by stu31
ASX Announcement 12 March 2024

Ramp-up on schedule with 13,364oz produced in February 2024
Head grade and processing throughput ensure Bellevue is on track to meet guidance of
75,000-85,000oz for June half of FY24
Key Points
• Gold production continues to ramp up; Production totalled 13,364 ounces in February 2024 at a head grade of 5.2g/t gold
• Strong processing performance across the crushing and milling circuit; Nameplate throughput achieved again in February 2024 for the third consecutive month
• Stoping grade continues to reconcile well with the modelled project assumptions
• The benefits of increased active work areas and further development levels for underground production are expected to be realised for the remainder of FY24, with stoping ore as a percentage of mill feed forecast to increase to steady-state during the June 2024 quarter
• Production guidance for the six months to 30 June 2024 is maintained at 75,000-85,000oz.
Achieving this guidance is forecast to continue to generate positive free cash flow (with cost guidance to be announced following declaration of commercial production)
Bellevue Gold Limited (Bellevue or Company) (ASX: BGL) is pleased to announce that its gold production continues to rise, underpinned by underground stoping ore and higher grades.
Bellevue Managing Director Darren Stralow said: “Our production ramp up continues to improve month on month.
“It is very pleasing to see milling nameplate throughput achieved for a third straight month as we progress towards steady state operations. This resulted in production of 13,364oz in the month of February 2024 and ensures we are well on track to meet our guidance for the six months to 30 June 2024 and generate free cash flow.
Production Update
Mining and gold production in February 2024 has continued to increase. Gold production totalled 13,364 ounces at an average head grade of 5.2 g/t gold. February’s production figure represents a 28% increase in gold production
from January 2024.

Underground development and stoping rates continues to ramp up. Mine to mill reconciliation remains on target with the Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE), with stope performance including dilution and overbreak performing to expectations. The focus remains on increasing the stoping rate to steady-state which is expected to deliver further increases in grade to the mill as the underground mining rate matches the plant throughput. The Company expects to see the benefits from the establishment of multiple mining areas and development levels for underground mining production during the remainder of the FY24. All five underground mining areas are now actively in ore development or stoping with the first stoping ore delivered from Deacon Main during the month.
Mill performance has continued to achieve or exceed the nameplate 1.0Mtpa processing rate for the third consecutive month.
The Company released guidance in January 2024 targeting production of 75,000-85,000 ounces for the six months to 30 June 2024 and remains on track to achieve this. Achieving this guidance is forecast to continue to generate positive free cash flow (with cost guidance to be announced following declaration of commercial production, which is expected to occur during the June 2024 quarter)
Posted at 23/3/2023 15:04 by stu31
1.1bn shares in issue. Market Cap A$1.32bn (£730m) at 120c

Cash A$44.2m (1/24) Debt A$225m

website:

The Company has a global JORC Mineral Resource of 3.1 Moz at 9.9 g/t gold, including a Probable Ore Reserve of 6.8Mt @ 6.1 g/t gold for 1.34 Moz, making it one of the highest grade gold development projects in the world. Bellevue is now advancing its dual track strategy for growth via ongoing exploration and development of the Bellevue Gold Project in WA.

​Our recent Project Update forecasts that the project will generate $2.1 billion of free cashflow (pre-tax) (assuming gold price of A$2,500/oz) over a 10 year life of mine. For the first 5 years of the operation production is forecast to average 201,000 oz per annum at an AISC of A$1000 - $1,100/oz. The projected cashflow underpins an outstanding internal rate of return of 68% (pre-tax) and a payback period of 1.4 years (post-tax).

First Gold poured 25 October 2023 on time and on budget
Commissioning now underway in the December 2023 Qtr to 1Mtpa run rate


Posted at 03/7/2014 07:30 by croxie
Bullabulling Gold Limited

03 July 2014

3 July 2014 ASX Code: BAB, AIM Code: BGL

THIRD SUPPLEMENTARY TARGET'S STATEMENT

This document is a supplementary target's statement under section 644 of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth). It is the third supplementary target's statement (Third Supplementary Target's Statement) issued by Bullabulling Gold Limited ABN 50 153 234 532 (Bullabulling) in relation to the off-market takeover bid for all the ordinary shares in the capital of Bullabulling on issue as at 5.00pm (AWST) on 18 April 2014 by Norton Gold Fields Limited ABN 23 112 287 797 (Norton).

This Third Supplementary Target's Statement supplements, and should be read together with, Bullabulling's target's statement dated 14 May 2014 (Original Target's Statement), first supplementary target's statement dated 5 June 2014 (First Supplementary Target's Statement) and second supplementary target's statement dated 6 June 2014 (Second Supplementary Target's Statement).

Words and phrases defined in the Original Target's Statement have the same meaning in this Third Supplementary Target's Statement (unless otherwise defined).

3 July 2014

RECOMMENDATION TO ACCEPT NORTON'S INCREASED OFFER

-- As at 3 July 2014, Norton has a relevant interest in more than 41% of the Bullabulling Shares

-- As Norton now has a relevant interest in more than 30% of the Bullabulling Shares, Norton has increased the Offer price from $0.07 per Bullabulling Share to $0.08 per Bullabulling Share

-- The directors remain of the unanimous view that the Increased Offer undervalues Bullabulling, but, in the current circumstances, they recommend that you accept the Offer (in the absence of a superior proposal) for the reasons set out below

On 16 June 2014, at the time of announcing that the Offer price would be increased to $0.08 per Bullabulling Share if Norton had a relevant interest in more than 30% of Bullabulling Shares by 5.00pm (AWST) 30 June 2014, Norton had a relevant interest in approximately 17% of the Bullabulling Shares. Norton has since received a number of acceptances, including from Bullabulling's two major shareholders, and as at 3 July 2014 Norton has a relevant interest in 41.35% of Bullabulling Shares. Norton has announced that the Offer price has increased to $0.08 per Bullabulling Share ("Increased Offer").

Directors' recommendation and intentions

The directors remain of the view that Norton's Increased Offer of $0.08 per Bullabulling Share materially undervalues Bullabulling. However, after carefully considering the implications of Norton's current relevant interest in Bullabulling Shares, which has resulted in an effective change in control of the company, the directors have reached the inevitable conclusion that they should amend their recommendation to shareholders, and therefore have unanimously resolved to recommend that Bullabulling shareholders accept Norton's Increased Offer of $0.08 per Bullabulling Share (in the absence of a superior proposal) for the reasons set out below.

The Bullabulling directors will consider accepting the Increased Offer in respect of the Bullabulling Shares that they hold or control and that are capable of being accepted into the Increased Offer.[i] Between now

and the date upon which the Increased Offer closes, the directors will monitor the level of acceptances that Norton receives and the composition of Bullabulling's board under Norton's control.

Reasons for the recommendation

The directors now believe it is reasonable to accept the Increased Offer (in the absence of a superior proposal) for the following reasons:

a) As Norton has voting power in Bullabulling of 41.35%, and there are no other substantial shareholders, it is highly unlikely that any resolutions could be passed at a meeting of shareholders without Norton's support or that any resolutions proposed by Norton could be defeated. Effectively control of the company has passed.

b) Norton's effective control of Bullabulling means that it will be in a position to largely control:

i. the management and board composition of Bullabulling
ii. the timing of any future development of the Bullabulling Gold Project
iii. the method and source of funding for the further advancement of the Bullabulling Gold Project, which may result in Norton further increasing its shareholding.

c) Norton has declared that the Increased Offer consideration of $0.08 per Bullabulling share is final and under Australian takeovers law the Offer price cannot be increased further under the current offer.

d) Despite Bullabulling's very best efforts, there have been no alternative or better offers presented for Bullabulling and with Norton's relevant interest increasing to 41.35%, the prospects for progressing an alternative transaction are materially diminished.

Closing date

The Increased Offer is scheduled to close at 5.00pm AWST / 10.00am BST on Wednesday 16 July 2014 (unless extended).[ii] The directors note that Norton has not made a "last and final statement" as to

whether it intends to extend the Increased Offer beyond this date, and as such Norton can further extend the Increased Offer period at any time prior to the scheduled close.

Other factors to consider

Despite the directors recommending that Bullabulling shareholders accept the Increased Offer, the directors recognise that certain Bullabulling shareholders may have a different investment strategy and criteria and may consider the following as reasons for not accepting the Increased Offer and remaining a Bullabulling shareholder:

a) the directors remain of the view that Norton's Increased Offer of $0.08 per Bullabulling Share does not reflect the value of your Bullabulling Shares;

b) the value of the Bullabulling Gold Project could increase with positive movements in the equities market and/or in the gold price - if you accept the Increased Offer, you will be denied the opportunity to participate in any value accretion that may occur in the future;

c) Norton has the capacity to contribute the funding required to realise potential enhancements to the value and economics of the Bullabulling Gold Project. Bullabulling shareholders should, however, note that Norton has not made any commitment or indicated any intention to participate in any future funding proposals at this point in time; and

d) if you do accept the Increased Offer, you will not be able to benefit from any separate takeover offers that Norton or a third party may make in the future. Bullabulling shareholders should note that the directors are not aware of any specific intention on the part of Norton to make any follow-on offer should it not acquire 100% (or sufficient relevant interests in Bullabulling Shares to allow it to proceed to compulsory acquisition) under the Increased Offer, or the existence of any alternative proposal from a third party.

Alternatively, shareholders can elect to sell their Bullabulling Shares on market on ASX or AIM (unless you have previously accepted the Offer or the Increased Offer).

There are several implications in relation to each of the above choices. A summary of these implications is set out in section 5 of the Original Target's Statement.

NO ACCOUNT OF PERSONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

The information in this Third Supplementary Target's Statement does not constitute financial product advice and this Third Supplementary Target's Statement does not take account of your individual investment objectives and financial situation or particular needs. Accordingly, in deciding whether to remain a shareholder in Bullabulling or accept the Increased Offer, you should consider your own investment objectives and seek independent financial and taxation advice.

OTHER NOTICES

This Third Supplementary Target's Statement prevails to the extent of any inconsistency with the Original Target's Statement, the First Supplementary Target's Statement and the Second Supplementary Target's Statement.

A copy of this Third Supplementary Target's Statement has been lodged with ASIC. Neither ASIC nor any of its officers takes any responsibility for the contents.

Signed for and on behalf of Bullabulling Gold Limited following a resolution of the directors of Bullabulling Gold Limited.

Brett Lambert

Managing Director

3 July 2014

[i] The terms of the Increased Offer extend to all of the fully paid ordinary shares in Bullabulling on issue at 5.00pm (AWST) on 18 April 2014 and all shares that come to be in the bid class during the Offer period due to the conversion of or exercise of rights attached to other securities on issue at 5.00pm (AWST) on 18 April 2014 ("Bid Class Securities"). Bullabulling issued Shares on 11 June 2014 and 2 July 2014 ("New Shares"), including some New Shares to directors, following the receipt of shareholder approval at Bullabulling's annual general meeting held on 27 May 2014. As set out in Bullabulling's ASX announcements dated 11 June 2014 and 2 July 2014, the New Shares are quoted with the ASX code "BABN" and are not Bid Class Securities.

[ii] In accordance with section 624(2) of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), if Norton's voting power increases to more than 50% within the last 7 days of the offer period, the offer period will automatically be extended so that it ends 14 days after that event.
Posted at 01/7/2014 08:17 by corrientes
Great shame. Bad timing ?

Don't want to imagine what the BGL share price might have been when gold recovers, which it always does. Funding would be no problem. Expecting Norton price to do the same is wishful thinking.
Posted at 18/6/2014 12:42 by rich pickings
Ok - say they get 30%, and they control the decision making...but BGL still exists.
Will they bring the mine into production? - I think so, as they have the financial backing + the parent company needs to maintain it's annual production.
So, the share price should go higher than 8c. So why sell out now?

But if they have 30% - why stop there? Why not get 50%+. But to do so, they need to offer more than 8c. So why sell out now?

And if they don't get much further than 17%, will they dump the shares? I don't think so - so the only hit to the share price is from the 15% placement...but this means BGL can get nearer to the DFS & announce the maiden reserve...which means the share price recovers...

Is this too simplistic a view?
Posted at 17/6/2014 21:12 by temujiin
Just some musing while I watch the Brazil match.

Here's how I see the next month. Zijn/Norton will imo totally fail to secure anything like 30%of BGL. I'm sure they know this as well, they may get to 20%(?). The offer may or may not be extended on 16th July but it makes no odds then as BGL can and will have a 15% dilution /placing at possibly 3.5p(?) bringing in maybe £1.83m/A$3.25m.

SP may drop between to 3.5p - 3.9p but Zijn will support share price as they try to acquire cheap stock on the open market. BGL will continue to prove the viability and desirability of it's 2.5m – 3m oz gold Reserve. share price will imo rise way above Zijn's 3.9p offer price as cash costs come down and the DFS get's closer.

Further out is harder to guess but BGL and Zijn may co-operate, another bidder may make a seriously decent offer for BGL, or BGL may support a friendly merger.
Posted at 11/6/2014 15:18 by rich pickings
I just bought at 3.89p. The offer of $0.07AUD (at current rate 1.7127 to gbp) = 0.0409, so I see little downside to buying.

The way I see it is this...I would be grateful for your views in case I am being stupid:

If they reach 50% - Norton can initiate the acquisition/buy-back of the shares it does not control through their board representation.
This is likely if the current offer price is this low.
Any shares bought now below current GBP exchange rate price is still a profit.
(Risk low)

If they reach 90% - Norton will compulsory purchase at offer price. So any shares bought below current GBP exchange rate price = profit
But to get to 90% they will require a much,much higher offer.
(Reward - high)

The latest notification is: Norton have 15.9% of shares (incl associates 2.5% already held. the latest extension of the offer is to 16/6 unless extended further:

Will Norton carry on?
Nearer they get to 50% - yes

Will they up the offer price?
Depends how near to 50%, POG, Other bidders...

If they pull-out, will they dump their shares?
– unlikely as they will take a loss & show it to be a failure (therefore price somewhat supported.
And,even if they did, if we get to Maiden reserve, DFS etc – the share price has potential to be much higher as per independent valuation report.
therefore downside risk medium term is low.

Other downsides:
BGL will have to issue shares very soon (15% placement)to get nearer to DFS, maiden reserve etc. At end Q1 they had $3m, with expected outflow of $2.2m in Q2. Today they announced $0.117m shares issued for working capital, so likely in next few weeks-1 month they will place up to 52m shares – This will cause dilution & normally a share price fall.
But as long as Norton are still offering 0.07c, any shares we can buy at a lower price than currently 0.041p = profit & guaranteed if Norton go up to 90% ownership, or likely if they get to 50% and exercise option to acquire/buy-back.
Bullabulling share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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