Bateman Litwin Share Discussion Threads

[simon gordon] 19/11/2007 20:34

I posted because I found the article on Bloomberg today.

I sense you are experiencing cognitive dissonance, if a conflicting view to your own is posted on the thread.

I think the thread should have all data posted, as it helps keep the structure of the story real and alive.

Here is a definition of CD:

'Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term describing the uncomfortable tension that may result from having two conflicting thoughts at the same time, or from engaging in behavior that conflicts with one's beliefs.

In simple terms, it can be the filtering of information that conflicts with what one already believes, in an effort to ignore that information and reinforce one's beliefs. In detailed terms, it is the perception of incompatibility between two cognitions, where "cognition" is defined as any element of knowledge, including attitude, emotion, belief, or behavior. The theory of cognitive dissonance states that contradicting cognitions serve as a driving force that compels the mind to acquire or invent new thoughts or beliefs, or to modify existing beliefs, so as to reduce the amount of dissonance (conflict) between cognitions. Experiments have attempted to quantify this hypothetical drive. Some of these have examined how beliefs often change to match behavior when beliefs and behavior are in conflict.'



Good fortune, I will be back if I come across a relevant article, whether it is Bullish or Bearish!!!

[surfer2] 19/11/2007 20:24

Simon , if you sold why are you still checking in every day ?

[surfer2] 19/11/2007 20:19

"As it is, they appear to have paid over the odds for a company that builds something that no one wants anymore".

so why did they win a contract only a few weeks ago ?

[simon gordon] 19/11/2007 20:16

Maybe the CEO of BNLN will be the next to be fired.

The guy who sold Delta-T to BNLN is probably in Palm Beach playing golf!!!

[stegrego] 19/11/2007 20:08

BNLN would be a great company - without the recent Delta-T buy IMO.

As it is, they appear to have paid over the odds for a company that builds something that no one wants anymore.

This could swing round if the dynamics change for ethanol or they figure out how to make it from grass / leaves etc. Otherwise its a fair bet that Delta T's revenues will fall, possibly off a cliff.

Why oh why the management couldnt see this when they bought the co in July ive got no idea.

[simon gordon] 19/11/2007 19:54

The thesis is that BNLN have bought a turkey in Delta-T.

I think that the facts are obvious in this regard and have been detailed in prior posts.

I am not saying BNLN are a turkey...

[surfer2] 19/11/2007 19:39

Simon

with all due respect.. i think you should back up your thesis in more detail.
the recent contract wins , modest valuation and large order book relative to the size of this company contradict your argument. these guys have a toe in training staff for 1 of the largest oilfields discovered in the last 30 years - Kashagan

[simon gordon] 19/11/2007 18:38

Hi surfer,

I just came across the article on Bloomberg and thought it should be added to the thread.

It does look like Delta-T is a turkey...

That is all!!!

[surfer2] 19/11/2007 17:30

peg ratio is projected at less than .5 for the next 2 yrs - many reckon thats a better indicator of potential growth and value than the p/e ration which incidentally is 14-15 for 2008 compared to mid 20s for similar companies in the oil sector.

[surfer2] 19/11/2007 17:28

from their website

"Some of Delta-T's past and current clients include Cargill, Sasol, BP Chemicals, Monsanto, Kraft Foods, Equistar Petrochemicals, Minnesota Corn Processors (now ADM), Pine Lake Corn Processors, Ace Ethanol, Pacific Ethanol, Aventine, Biofuel Energy, Amylum Group, Global Ethanol, Altra Biofuels, Berggruen Holdings, Commercial Alcohols, and Terra Grain Fuels."

some of the words biggest blue chip companies as clients for a portion of their revenues. delta t is not exclusively ethanol - monsanto is in agriculture.
im not sure what your motive is - you said you sold . if you want to buy back its only a few % higher than the 2 recent lows .

[surfer2] 13/11/2007 10:24

a contract is a contract..once bnln do the job and get paid it doesnt matter

[simon gordon] 13/11/2007 10:13

From the NY Times:

'For years, the arrival of an ethanol distillery in agricultural America was greeted mainly with delight, a ticket to the future in places plagued by economic uncertainty. But in the nation's middle, the engine of ethanol country, the glow is dimming.

In Kansas, Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota and even Iowa, the nation's largest corn and ethanol producer, this next-generation fuel finds itself facing the oldest of hurdles: opposition from residents who love the idea of an ethanol distillery so long as it is someplace else.

"What they are trying to sell we aren't buying," said Deb Moore, who owns a sandwich shop and soda fountain here.

The disputes have left some proposed plants waiting, mired in lawsuits; a few have given up.'

[surfer2] 12/11/2007 12:50

and another contract (:

[rampmeister] 11/11/2007 11:09

With forward order book at 954m. at year end and 150m. new contracts announced in October alone this is looking very good imo. With 750m. worth of tenders o/s and high conversion rate 2007/8 revenue should hit between 700m. to 1bn. One-off expenses relating to acquisition, due diligence and integration costs applied last year plus other exceptionals put pressure on margins so with consolidation the key word from results statement we can expect higher margins applying this year.
I also note the part where they expect additional bolt on contracts to be awarded following last year's contract wins.

RM

[surfer2] 09/11/2007 16:52

investors champion note out - very positive on BNLN results
echoing my comments

- order book , net cash , large increase in revenues ect ect ect

[surfer2] 07/11/2007 15:54

fair enough , well done. biggest profits lie in holding long term as i found when i bought tullow and fought the urge to take profits several times. thought i had the top at 600p and it still ran further

[nickcduk] 07/11/2007 15:48

Surfer2 - I day trade for a living using DMA. I picked up a position at around 220p so a quick 14% return in a few weeks isn't bad work. My costs for the record were 0.08% commission either side and as it was a CFD there was zero stamp duty. I also had to pay interest on the position but as it was only running for a few weeks it wouldn't have amounted to much.

[surfer2] 07/11/2007 15:39

unless you had a big spread bet per point from 225 to 248...?
i think you should have given this more time ...wait for press and analyst comment ect.

[surfer2] 07/11/2007 15:36

banked your profits? from what level 150p area? if so why did you wait till now?
u couldnt be in a profit worth taking from circa 225-230 to 250
minus spreads and fees thats not even 5%

3 contract wins in the last few weeks and thats not enough for you ?
you have some v high expectations (:

[nickcduk] 07/11/2007 15:31

I banked my profits on BNLN this afternoon. I hadn't realised the company pays zero tax. That makes the forward p/e ratio not too different to its peers if you use EBIT. I was hoping for more big contract wins and more of a bullish tone but it was a bit quiet on that front. Not really sure where it goes from here but will keep tabs on it as it does move around a lot.

p.s. The Delta-T comments also came as a surprise. Maybe they were conveyed to analysts but I can't find head nor tail of them either.

[simon gordon] 07/11/2007 15:24

Hi Stegrego,

I also have no plans to buy BNLN.

The Delta-T deal looks like a Turkey and the statement today just confuses the matter.

[stegrego] 07/11/2007 15:16

Simon Gordon - they said fek all about it in any RNS' - i looked today - and thats the reason i didnt buy this morning - cos it looks like potential trouble.

[mirshahik] 07/11/2007 13:44

I make the P/E about 22. Is this correct?

[surfer2] 07/11/2007 13:33

didnt have time to read this ams rns until now
results are superb imho , after tax profit up 47% with almost 1 billion dollars backlog of contracts .revenue grown by nearly 50% . very low key share off many peoples radar .will probably grow for the foreseeable future along with the macroeconomic world energy story