Avesoro Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wal footrot] 09/5/2005 13:38

(begrudgingly) great call recently fred :)

[chef] 09/5/2005 13:37

lol's. Only one of them!!!

[ydderf] 09/5/2005 12:25

luckily his bottie has two cheeks.........

[ydderf] 09/5/2005 10:43

and it was so.........89-94! lol

[cockneyrebel] 04/5/2005 11:51

yep, I agree - nowt certain, that's why I said to Frauddy that I thought I might top up around the 80p mark a little higher up this thread. I have a certain amount of stocks that I feel confident to hold through any US decline tho, where they are performing through their own right imo.

Yep, don't catch I falling knife either, I'm already holding the knife so it's easy for me to say I guess.

CR

[mad4it] 04/5/2005 11:07

CR - The thing is mate, I take your point, but ASO clearly retraced around 30% because the general market conditions, particularly in the US, have turned more bearish recently. We have seen similar, or worse declines across the whole small cap sector. That is a reality.

Personally, I don't like catching falling knives, I like to buy shares in strong uptrends and then top up on the dips. So I'm sincerely hoping ASO can resume it's uptrend. But I still think, just like the recent falls were dictated by market sentiment, so will any lasting resumption of the uptrend.

It's no coincidence that small caps have fallen with the US indices.

It's one thing buying a share cheaply as it falls on a dip, it's another trying to call the bottom of a newly formed downtrend, it's a risky business, IMHO. But I've taken a chance and am accumulating because I obviously agree ASO is cheap on a one year view....assuming we don't go into another bear market! Which you can never rule out, given the relatively dodgy state of the US economy.

I just prefer to take a realistic view based on the evidence I'm presented with.

Talking of which; SHAREGOD makes a good point about the head & shoulders. That is a potentially bearish formation. Let's hope it doesn't play out.

[cockneyrebel] 04/5/2005 11:03

Moving up on no trades showing, must be a large buyer in the background imo.

I suspect the results are getting whispered around - going to be pretty good if the company can say this a month before the year end imo:

""Overall, virtually all our businesses have achieved growth rates ahead of
expectations and as a result both our revenue and profit figures are ahead of
the same period last year and considerably better than our expectations at the
interim stage. Although the group's overall performance in the key trading month
of March will not be finalised until the close of the financial year, we expect
to report full year figures comfortably ahead of market expectation."

I expect large and small buying to drive this up between now and the results - we've seen the dip and kissed it goodbye imo.

CR

[sharegod] 04/5/2005 10:55

I too think aso represent good value, however technically it looks like the right shoulder being formed and they will represent even greater value at 80p.

[cockneyrebel] 04/5/2005 10:50

I think ASO is more about the Rod Stewart concerts and the like rather than the indicies. They are doing lots of concert business and I would imagine the UK elections are calling for a lot of OB stuff and equipment hire.

This will all come to the fore when the results are out in a months time imo.

UK indicies were ignoring the US late last year and earlier this year - just a short term bout of the jitters in the market over the past week as the mm's went through their summer makdown - just created some great buying opportunities imo. I've been buying the smashed and the oversold - all the bulls will be back as soon as they grow horns again and the yanks are trading long rather than short imo.

CR

[mad4it] 04/5/2005 10:43

dave - That's why I said "visible".

But even if there are a couple of delayed trades, volumes across the small cap sector are low, atm.

NB: I have NMS for all MMs at 5k on L2.

[dave88] 04/5/2005 10:41

The reason theres only 3 buys showing is because nms is 1000 shares,i can assure you that theres buying going on in the background.

[mad4it] 04/5/2005 10:36

Encouraging move, but it's still all about the US indices, IMHO. The 'floats all boats' bull market in small caps is (at least temporarily) at an end. Volumes have dropped away along with bullish sentiment as the US indices have retraced. (Only 3, visible, trades today.)

That's clear if you look at the recent performance of ASO, WNN, CAR, XNC, etc.

We saw the same thing this time last year, but everything perked up at the end of the year, because the US indices stayed strong. I'd expect the same thing this year, but only if the US indices hold up.

The vast majority of all shares will, sooner or later, react to the macro market conditions, regardless of how cheap they are in theory...history proves this to be true and is the reason for the recent retracements in small caps.

However, saying that, if you're a long term investor, you have to make buying decisions based on the value presented to you here and now, it's difficult to second guess the market. So I believe you need to be at least partly invested in shares like ASO. Hopefully the recent falls in the small caps wont accelerate again to the downside.

[cockneyrebel] 04/5/2005 10:14

Won't be able to buy for £1 soon - did point out these looked like flying yesterday - punters out snapping up the bargains that the last few weeks have created imo

CR

[mad4it] 03/5/2005 15:58

dorq - Yes, the MMs are not keen at all. I'm seeing the same MM behaviour throughout the small cap sector. That's why I'm only buying small amounts. My main concern is the US indices tanking, if they start falling again, good value or not, ASO will probably retrace again. But if the US indices can rally and hold their gains, then ASO should recover from here.

I'm sitting mostly in cash, for now, although, like ASO, I've got a few small holdings in shares I see as fundamentally cheap on a one year view, (still got quite a few DAN though, but I've sold half my holding recently). I'll top 'em all up if conditions start improving.

In the meantime, I'm back into to my old trading mode.

[doubleorquits] 03/5/2005 15:07

Mad,
No problem - one is enough. Surprised to see it wasn't marked up but that is a sign that the MMs have a lot of stock IMO. Unless the Bank Holiday effect meant they forgot to try it on!

[cockneyrebel] 03/5/2005 13:48

Last chance to buy below £1 - 3x MM's on 100p, 1 x MM on 98p.

CR

[doubleorquits] 03/5/2005 13:04

Mad,

What was the source of the other tip, please? Are you able to post it?

[cockneyrebel] 03/5/2005 12:26

Nope, nipped out but the local newsagent had sold out.

I know how screaming cheap these are without The Business anyway :-)

CR

[miked500] 03/5/2005 12:17

did anyone get a copy of the business?

[mad4it] 03/5/2005 12:03

Well, the MMs seemed a bit reluctant again initially, I was surprised they weren't keener, given this was tipped from two different sources at the weekend, but eventually the MMs came to life so I've started accumulating again and it's looking perkier now. Hopefully it can make progress from this oversold position, but it still wouldn't surprise me to see another retracement, the MMs are obviously nervous about the market conditions.