Aurelian Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[johncraven] 09/10/2012 13:36

The 1 shares are a sign for a £1 a share takeover next week (-:

[thedickster] 09/10/2012 13:26

oh christ, there are two purchases, a sign?

[thedickster] 09/10/2012 13:26

ROTFLOL, that purchase of 1 share lol

[naithani] 09/10/2012 13:18

Tosca may be an accomplice of bidding company and may be working in tandem with K...who knows????

[jasper2712] 09/10/2012 13:11

Tosca will not accept anything near 20p. There average must be running at a minimum of 30p.

[johncraven] 09/10/2012 11:35

"focus on shareholder value maximisation"

What is good value? Over £1 targets not so long ago? Taking into consideration all aspects from production to cash a takeover of atleast 40p should be on the cards.

Certainly not 20p!!!

[johncraven] 09/10/2012 11:33

o Since the initiation of this review, significant time and resource have been invested in assessing and developing the options available to the Company with the focus on shareholder value maximisation.

o The Board is pleased to report that several options for the future of the group emerged from the review and expects to be able to announce its recommendation during Q4 2012.

[lammergeier] 09/10/2012 11:31

Are we about to break out of our recent trading range?The Pressure is building is she going to blow?

[loglorry1] 09/10/2012 11:21

Bumpa if you look at the CPR though all the prospects need a lot more work before they have much value apart from Siekierki which dwarfs the other assets anyway. HOWEVER this has serious technical problems with flow rate and water cut. Sure if someone can sort this out then AUL is worth a lot more. However that's a big IF and I'm not sure anyone will pay that much more than cash as a lot has to be spent to find out if it is commercial yet.

Log

[newvest1] 09/10/2012 11:09

Snakes n Ladders today!

[bumpa33] 09/10/2012 10:25

loglorry1

At 27% i'd expect Tosca to have a 'very good idea' what's happening in the background - whether that's a bid, farm in, strategic partnership, selling off some assets etc, we can only guess. As for a bid price though you'd have to be looking at somewhere around 20p minimum surely? Considering they've 8.2p in cash, 106m euros in capex and assuming the assets aren't junk (otherwise why bid) then i'd have thought that's a reasonable minimum expectation. Scant consolation for longer term holders though of course.

[loglorry1] 09/10/2012 10:03

Bumpa its just their overall position that counts and that hasn't changed.

At 27% you might expect management of AUL to let them know prior to any corporate action but they are not obliged to treat them differently.

On balance though one expects corp action more likely now than less likely.

Think 20p might be a bit steep though unless someone really things they can fix Sirkirki (sp?)

Log

[kawello] 09/10/2012 09:47

Log - well I think with 27% of the shares they are kind of entitled to know whats going on. IMHO only though.

[bumpa33] 09/10/2012 09:16

loglorry1 - i think the more pertinent point is that they no longer have a hedging position?

[loglorry1] 09/10/2012 09:14

Although good news they changed from CFD to voting rights it could have just been a realisation that they might be required to vote on something soon. This doesn't really mean they know there is something afoot though.

It seems insane that they would hold a CFD in such large quantity when the company has already commissioned a strategic review. Good news in general but really not sure if it means corp action immediate.

Log

[bumpa33] 09/10/2012 09:07

with respect Johncraven, it'll be the funds who decide what we get to accept :) a bid of course is just one of a number of possible scenarios.

[johncraven] 09/10/2012 09:02

I wouldnt except 20p got an average of 24p on 700k shares

[bumpa33] 09/10/2012 08:23

been watching this one for a while now - clearest indicator yet from the 8.3's is the Tosca conversion of CFD positions to physical holding, no long/short CFD positions now held. As you say monts12, voting rights required now for Tosca and obviously for the SOR outcome and maybe even a (no doubt lowball, 20p+?) bid. But interesting they now have no hedge whatsoever.

[monts12] 08/10/2012 23:35

Toscafund have converted their CFD positions into physical shares. Why would they do this if not to gain more voting rights? A good sign.
Tomorrow's price action should be interesting....

[wrighty46] 08/10/2012 18:09

If we can get some volume and maybe some news this is so tightly held it will move very quick

[johncraven] 08/10/2012 17:59

Roll on double figures

[mostyn] 08/10/2012 17:28

Toscafund (not heard of this one before) now owns 27.8%. Picked up another 4% over the last few days. Interesting situation as to why the increase.

[timberwolf3] 08/10/2012 17:23

Grabbed myself another slice of the pie today.

[johncraven] 08/10/2012 16:34

Wont tomorrow to many of the market makers moved up today and no-one would sell at anywhere near that price now. Should see over 10p by the weekend.