ARK Therapeutics Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 04/7/2011 16:42

I've never been a fan, but bought these lows a few times

Bought because at the lows, downside was minimal and anticipated newsflow was likely IMO to cause rise

BUT, with this gone, my view is that there'll be little further notable newsflow.
So I've not really followed much now.

They may score a few deals and contracts, which will all help - that's the aim at present, to extend the cash runway.
However, for me, there's not enough for a longer-term investment. Some of the products are ok and may get progressed, but others are in limbo

[contrarian2investor] 04/7/2011 16:37

the_doctor, you too like Dr Biotech have been a follower of this stock for many years. Have you given up on it also?

[the_doctor] 04/7/2011 16:32

I think the patent relates only to the treatment or prevention of stroke using an inhibitor or the renin-angiotensin system - but havent looked at it recently

edit - it says in the RNS -for the prevention and treatment of stroke and myocardial infarction

BUT that would be only part of the indications the drugs are marketed for - if any.
I forget if stroke is yet covered by any of the products?

From memory, a large study aimed at getting approval for stroke may have actually failed - I may be wrong there
Off-label use for stroke would I guess fall under the IP

'is a high risk punt on the milestone/royalty payments being significant '

The drugs covered largely go off patent over 2012-14 I think

My expectation/recollection was that it was always low-digit payments, but who knows. I'd have thought AKT would have said if they were larger?
Maybe they cant yet

Kicking myself for not following the patent process up to today, but hey ho.

[the above is only my rough memory, so could be wrong]

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 16:31

C2I - you have hit the nail on the head there.
I used to hold a lot of Bios as the moniker suggests. I gave up some years ago after I got fed up with consistant clinical failure and directors paying themselves gigantic amounts. Todays news could be a bit of a game changer in time for AKT - it has taken ages to get this patent and I hope they succede in getting something through the trials.

From a trading PoV they also tend to spike in the morning then rise in the pm followed by a further spike the next day then the inevitable decline. I was thinking of holding out till lunchtime tomorrow, but my son has his sports day and I'm not going to be spending that checking the prices on my phone.

Good luck to all. I hope it continues to rise.

[rodozz] 04/7/2011 16:30

Looks like an interesting punt

[contrarian2investor] 04/7/2011 16:18

Dr Biotech, I too would be a little bit trigger happy too if like you, I had been involved on and off with this stock since at least Dec 2005. But I have not. Good luck to you too. I have invested speculatively and will await the news on the level of milestone and royalty payment/s. Hopefully some of the 5-10 days traders will give me an opportunity to make further purchases below 4.5p before the news breaks.

[topinfo] 04/7/2011 16:16

How much cash these got left Guys please?

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 16:04

Good luck. I closed out at 5p (or to be precise 4.9906). Not a huge gain, but nice to actually make some on this one for a change.

[contrarian2investor] 04/7/2011 16:00

I joined the herd/party this morning @ 4.5p with a stop-loss of 3.7p. This is a high risk punt on the milestone/royalty payments being significant and finally transformational for a company. That has failed investors over the past 7 years and used up over £150m of their cash.

Here is HOMER'S representation of AKT's shareholders over the past 7 years.

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 11:54

From Matrix note which is on AKTs website (March '11). As always I am a little wary about house brokers

Milestone payments from Boehringer Ingelheim

While there has been little news flow on this programme, because of the time it takes to secure patent protection, there are some near-term potential milestones that could bring additional revenues for Ark. With no certainty of timelines, we believe there is a small possibility that Ark could see its US patent issued in the field of ACE inhibitors related to stroke in 2011. If this patent were to be issued, then it could not only bring a windfall of €4m, but also allow Ark to successfully pursue additional patent infringement cases against companies with ACE inhibitors with sales at the billion-dollar level. We believe that two top five global pharmaceutical companies could be forced to take a licence from Ark.

Can't imagine that taking on a legal unit from the top pharmas will be easy or cheap, but certainly has potential

[zapa] 04/7/2011 11:07

you and me both.

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 10:30

if they could get an income stream of a few million a year it would make a huge difference. But I held these dogs when they were £1.50 and took a big hit - so I'm not looking for anything long term.

[chrisdgb] 04/7/2011 10:21

Matrix estimate high single digit millions....

That should mean with the shares in issue we should be up around 2.5p today....

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 09:26

The BI drug based on this patent has sales of over $1Bn. I'm not sure quite how the patent works and if its for all indications - the statement from 05 seems to say that AKT would get get royalties on some rather than all. But this patent has taken ages to process and AKT can presumably get a back dated payment.

FWIW I'm in at £1000pp - needs sell to be above 4.5p to be blue...

[chrisdgb] 04/7/2011 08:48

Matrix reiterate the 12p target today......

Also seem positive that there will be some good deals signed on Finland as well..

[the_doctor] 04/7/2011 08:09

I did used to track the patents for this

I should've revisited, since it'd be likely that a keen eyed researcher may have spotted the grant before AKT announced (I forget whether that's easier with the US or EU sites - one updates the company before the website)

[chrisdgb] 04/7/2011 08:06

When it was signed in 2005:

'several multi million Euro payments and royalties'


Fantastic news..........

[dr biotech] 04/7/2011 07:58

todays news is probably the most significant positive announcement for some time. May try and buy some this am, which is against my policy of never buying another bio

[moreforus] 04/7/2011 07:56

any idea of the value of the mile stone payments announced in todays rns?

[chrisdgb] 01/7/2011 08:09

nice to see a little bit of buying here yesterday, still confident of a decent looking Finnish facility deal..

[filbert3] 23/6/2011 12:56

agreed - as with all uk biotechs

[chrisdgb] 14/6/2011 08:10

Would be great to get some decent newsflow here.....

[filbert3] 10/5/2011 16:45

not really worth discussing - its just yet another failed uk biotech company.

[the_doctor] 10/5/2011 09:53

I'm sure poster 'blast from the past' will be able to tell us all about Iain's achievements, wont you blast ;o)