Antisoma Share Discussion Threads

[dasv] 22/8/2007 11:20

Perhaps I am not the only ASM shareholder to have asked him his opinion on the future direction of the share price when it was around 29p ;)

[divestor] 22/8/2007 11:17

I reckon Mahmood is spammed out!

[divestor] 22/8/2007 10:32

Are you in volsung? I know you said you sold half...

[volsung] 22/8/2007 10:17

Nice bounce guys.

[divestor] 22/8/2007 10:12

As the 1200mg/m2 phase II produced positive final results it would have been disastrous if the 1800mg/m2 had failed. What remains to be seen though is whether there is an increase in efficacy without increase in side effects. However this is a single arm study, if I recall correctly, so we can not compare to controls. These results, although expected, hopefully will show that the sell off after the ovarian non-result was overdone.
We are still waiting for the final prostate data which should also be out very soon.

[1leigh] 22/8/2007 08:27

Also this. Good to see the other products moving forward too :

Antisoma starts phase II trial of AS1411 in acute myeloid leukaemia


Antisoma starts phase II trial of AS1411 in acute myeloid leukaemia
London, UK: 6 August 2007 - Cancer drug developer Antisoma plc (LSE:
ASM; USOTC: ATSMY) today announces that it has started a randomised
phase II trial of AS1411 in AML (acute myeloid leukaemia). Around 70
patients will be recruited at major cancer centres in the USA.
The trial tests AS1411 in patients with relapsed or refractory AML.It evaluates addition of AS1411 to the current standard therapy,
cytarabine (Ara-C). Patients are being randomly assigned to one of
three groups: cytarabine alone, cytarabine plus 10 mg/kg/day AS1411
or cytarabine plus 40 mg/kg/day AS1411. Efficacy and safety will be
compared to see whether patients receiving a cytarabine-AS1411
combination do better than those receiving cytarabine alone and
whether the two doses of AS1411 have different effects. Initial
results are expected in 2008.
Dr Robert Stuart of the Medical University of South Carolina, an
investigator in the trial and a collaborator in earlier experimental
work on the drug, said: "AS1411 has shown real promise against AML in
preclinical testing and there is a strong biological rationale for
evaluating the drug in this disease, so we are very pleased to be
testing AS1411 in our leukaemia patients."AS1411 was the first anti-cancer aptamer to start clinical trials and
today becomes the first to progress to phase II. Preclinical data
suggest that AS1411 has potential against various blood cancers and
solid tumours. AML was selected as the lead blood-cancer indication
because cancer cells from AML patients and AML cell lines show
particularly high sensitivity to AS1411. There is also evidence for a
synergistic effect when AS1411 is combined with cytarabine.
Phase I testing of AS1411 was conducted in solid tumours. This showed
a favourable safety profile and evidence of anti-cancer activity in
renal cancer. A phase II trial in renal cancer is expected to start
shortly.
Antisoma's CEO, Glyn Edwards, said: "We intend to explore the
potential of AS1411 in a number of cancers where new treatment
options are needed. Our robust, randomised trials should provide
clear evidence of any benefit associated with AS1411 and therefore
have the potential to add significantly to its value over the next
couple of years."Enquiries:
Glyn Edwards, CEO [phone]
Antisoma plcMark Court/Lisa Baderoon/Rebecca Skye [phone]
Dietrich
Buchanan CommunicationsBrian Korb [phone]
The Trout Group
Except for the historical information presented, certain matters
discussed in this statement are forward looking statements that are
subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause
actual results to differ materially from results, performance or
achievements expressed or implied by such statements. These risks and
uncertainties may be associated with product discovery and
development, including statements regarding the company's clinical
development programmes, the expected timing of clinical trials and
regulatory filings. Such statements are based on management's current
expectations, but actual results may differ materially.Notes for Editors:AS1411
Aptamers are short pieces of DNA or RNA that can fold into stable,
three-dimensional structures capable of interacting with particular
target proteins. AS1411 is the first aptamer to be tested as a
treatment for cancer. It binds to the protein nucleolin, which is
found on the surface of cancer cells. It is then internalised and has
been shown to kill cancer cells from a variety of cell lines. The
drug has also shown anti-cancer effects in animal models and
promising signs of anti-cancer activity in the clinic. AS1411 was
originally developed by Dr Paula Bates, Dr John Trent and Prof.Donald Miller at the University of Alabama and then at the University
of Louisville. Antisoma added AS1411 to its pipeline when it acquired
the Louisville-based company Aptamera Inc. in February 2005.
Design of the AS1411 AML study
Patients will receive either AS1411 for seven days as a continuous
intravenous infusion combined with high-dose cytarabine for the final
four days, or high-dose cytarabine alone for four days.
About AML (acute myeloid leukaemia)
AML is a type of cancer in which the bone marrow makes abnormal and
immature blood cells, eventually leading to bone marrow failure. The
American Cancer Society estimates that there will be over 13,000 new
cases of AML diagnosed this year in the US alone (American Cancer
Society: Facts and Figures 2007. Atlanta, Georgia: American Cancer
Society, 2007.)Background on Antisoma
Based in London, UK, Antisoma is a biopharmaceutical company that
develops novel products for the treatment of cancer. Antisoma fills
its development pipeline by acquiring promising new product
candidates from internationally recognised academic or cancer
research institutions. Its core activity is the preclinical and
clinical development of these drug candidates. Please visit
www.antisoma.com for further information about Antisoma.
- ---END OF MESSAGE---

[badour] 22/8/2007 08:27

Shorters now running for the door. !

[dasv] 16/8/2007 10:51

well the insanity will end at some point and those brave enough to dip in on this and many other shares will no doubt be richly rewarded:-

Market Update
By Mark Dampier
15 Aug, 2007

Stock markets are continuing on a rollercoaster ride. In my view this is likely to continue until institutions and especially hedge funds have de-leveraged their positions. In other words they need to balance their books. The market has moved from one of greed to one of fear. In this kind of environment and especially in August when trading is notoriously thin, as many operators are away on holiday, you can see some very big swings in prices.

Should we be worried? Well, no one likes to see their investments go down but periodically I am afraid that is exactly what happens to stock markets. As Edward Bonham Carter the chief executive of Jupiter said "stock market corrections can be painful but are a necessary and healthy part of market behaviour".

The flipside of this is that they also provide very good buying opportunities. You might call this a summer sale. It is of course extremely difficult from a psychological point of view to buy when news looks very grim but that is how you can make the most money.

The other point to make is that big stock market falls are often extremely close to big rises. In March 12th 2003 the market fell 4.01% as measured by the All Share Index. On the 13th it rose 5.23% followed by a rise of 3.05% and then after the weekend on the 17th it rose a further 3%. It goes to show how close falls and rises are.

Figures from Fidelity help back this up. A stake of £1,000 invested in the UK stock market in June 1992 would have been worth £4,612 at the end of June 2007 including the reinvestment of dividends if left untouched. Strip out the best 10 days and the investment would be worth £3,041, miss the best 40 days and that stake would now be worth just £1,304. So we can see that time in the stock market can be more important than the actual timing. My view remains that clients with cash to invest should just merely look at the poorest days and buy then. For those invested patience is the order of the day.

[davidbennett] 16/8/2007 10:35

I know there's been carnage in the markets but I honestly cannot believe that ASM is so low....

Looking to buy at these levels, must be a bargain at 28p.

Any thoughts?

[dasv] 14/8/2007 14:16

What's all this then ASM up 3% today? surely not! Perhaps time to average down at last.

[divestor] 09/8/2007 23:05

OK maybe not such a clear signal but still indicates a possible upturn.

[divestor] 09/8/2007 21:03

Pretty clear buy signal from candlesticks (white spinning top), lower on start of day, strong upwards test before falling back, but still ending the day higher than start. Of course just an indicator but then many follow it. With ASM in the past this has almost always been a turning point after a downward trend. Would of course prefer more of a fall for better price.

I am tempted to do some fairly hefty buys in the morning but looking very carefully at the limited published data. The prostate still 'looks' very good, but the NSCLC is more 50/50 (still vv good odds for a drug). Wish the publications were a little more informative. If any one wants I will post what I do - but I dont see it really mattering! I still think the Questor article made no sense - ie quoting that the sell off after deal was overdone and then therefore the woman says sell to 27p

[the_doctor] 09/8/2007 18:29

Thats what I've been saying - but its a question of when...

My guess is around 25p chartwise, but also because of the falling market and the negative trial results.

Is there evidence of shorting on Level 2.
When thats stops, it might be time to get in?
However, OXB has a more exciting and differentiated pipeline.

[driver101] 09/8/2007 17:05

OXB chart lets hope ASM does the same.

[thepinkpanther] 09/8/2007 15:41

chart suggest bears will lose from here...................

[1leigh] 09/8/2007 13:34

From Questor :

Antisoma has a potentially blockbuster lung cancer drug, known as ASA404, which has recorded strong phase II data. The market - and patients - would warmly welcome the development of an new lung cancer drug, which could potentially replace Avastin as the gold standard. If it succeeds, ASA404 is likely to be taken up with gusto because of Avastin's nasty side effects.


Anyone care to hazard a guess at what sales of a new gold standard could come in at? For info, Avastin had sales of $533M in Q1 2007. While this covers a number of treatments, I would think annual sales of $1Bn would be possible. Combine that with a 50/50 chance of success, how do we get to the current share price? Beggars belief!

[divestor] 07/8/2007 15:19

Thank you dasv for that clarification, yes I do see it was just Questor so apologies to Ibraheem Mahmood and I retract anything I said about him! investec definitely web-ignorant on email posting.It was phenomenal to see such a negtive reaction to an unexpectedly good deal. Buy on rumour sell on news taken to extreme.
Absolutely agree with credit crunch affecting potential buyouts but I do think there are some others similar size pharmas which might be more sensitive to this, especially those which have risen masssively on takeover speculation.

[dasv] 07/8/2007 08:38

Divestor - I think the 27p figure was from Questor not from Ibraheem Mahmood at Investec. Mahmood is taking the standard analyst position that the post Novartis Deal sell-off is excessive. Questor came up with the ridiculous 27p claim.

WRT Mahmood's scientific ability - my knowledge only goes back to when we were both doing A-levels - in 1990 and 1991. He did a good paper on laminar flow in liquids for his physics project I seem to remember ;). I'll let you all know if he replies. As you can see from the link I posted previously, Investec have taken the rather web-ignorant decision to post their analysts' email addresses on a web page. This means they are available to email spiders trawling the web for people to spam. Therefore those poor investec employees will be getting a lot of junk/unsolicited mail from those email addresses - in other words, my email may be in his junk folder or in a mailbox he rarely checks.

Re: Dow - we already have a mark-up on the back of the rally on the Dow last night. The rumour being that the Fed will step into bail out bad debt from subprime mortgages. I guess the only reason this should affect ASM is that the ability to get credit might negatively impact on a potential suitor for ASM who needed to raise finance. However at this sp, it's chicken feed for a large cap pharmaceutical.

[bigwadds] 07/8/2007 06:25

At what point does ASM become a bargain for a takeover target?

Novartis might as well buy the company outright rather than keep paying out in instalments.

[1leigh] 06/8/2007 23:47

divestor, given the phase ii trials for asa404, I think the share price is currently some what of a bargain. At a market cap of £140M, with a 50% chance of ASA404 coming to market, the valuation seems a tad on the low side.

[divestor] 06/8/2007 22:48

However it looks it is very good news that the phase II AS1411 is underway. If the phase I trials are borne out then current price will seem er somewhat of a bargain. I love the idea of the aptamer mechanism, and it its lack of toxicity and specificity is very nifty.
Now I am having a real hard time finding evidence of mahmood's scientific ability (publications) and also figuring how he came up with the 27p. Any reply on that email dasv? Knowing a fair number of buy and sell analysts I can definitly say some are really underweight.
perhaps with the slight rally in the US today it might have an influence on ASM tomorrow (no not really believing that)

[dasv] 06/8/2007 15:02

yep i expect we are pre-destined for 25p bigwadds. Suspect there will be decent support there though.

[bigwadds] 06/8/2007 14:59

Now that someone has said they will go below 27p, I suspect the MM's will make this happen!