Anglo African Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[themadstork] 31/5/2018 14:50

69m shares in issue - 4.2m is roughly 6% of 69m.

There is no alternative funding solution. The only possible alternative would be a CLN, which would require the authority to issue even more shares than they are asking for for this placing.

[honestmarty] 31/5/2018 14:47

MS, where do you get 6 % of the shares in a hurry.?

And I think the risk is not no placing but rather an alternative funding solution. If deemed better than current placing finding 6% will become very expensive.

[themadstork] 31/5/2018 14:43

I had thought it would be suicidal to forward sell when it's known there's a non zero chance the placing could be voted down.

Thinking about it though, any shorts will be able to close easily enough on the selloff that will happen if 103 isn't funded. Quick adding up of the 200k+ sells since placing gives c4.2m short (assuming placee sells). That's only 6%ish of the existing shares in issue.

[honestmarty] 31/5/2018 14:34

Twitter feed updated with photos from the Congo.

Look like it's happening

Forward selling in full swing.

Brave, if placing delayed or reduced.

And who is taking them, MMs are not famed for their generous natures.?

[undervalued companies] 29/5/2018 13:37

Some peeps want it down it seems tin hat on and see you on other side missed the placing or cheap shares seems to get everyone heated ha ha

[themadstork] 29/5/2018 13:09

Hey, I am of average height. Average, I tell you! Ahem.

[undervalued companies] 29/5/2018 12:28

Yep agree this is not cricket let's all ring Optiva and tell the boss what this guy is up too what a nasty double dealing Pratt

[honestmarty] 29/5/2018 10:10

The truth hurts ILeeman, why don't you change and try to be a better , more honest person?

[ileeman] 29/5/2018 09:55

Easy way to divert the discussion. Some people say it as it is, others will lie to make money.

AAOG will do well but as I said not because of the fundamentals.

[honestmarty] 29/5/2018 09:50

ILeeman
You missed out on the placing.
Either stump up the cash or move on.

[honestmarty] 29/5/2018 09:50

ILeeman
You missed out on the placing.
Either stump up the cash or move on.

[ileeman] 29/5/2018 09:44

Sort of misleading Honestmarty Djeno, let alone the the other layer, is less than 25% chance of success.

[honestmarty] 29/5/2018 09:39

Mcap of 16 million, the reasonable prize gives a mcap over 800 million if we get 10000 bopd on 103 and 104 success. A tasty project with a mcap of at least 50 million on Mengo almost certain as a floor position.

[bad gateway] 29/5/2018 09:16

Not surprised really. Even with the placing they're only on a 16m marketcap at 10p.
Thats not a lot to pay for playing this one imo.

[themadstork] 28/5/2018 17:35

14p is best case scenario and it will take quite a while to get there imo, if at all, especially given the license issue.

Well, of course I want the placing to go through. I posted my position in this thread too.

There are no large shorts and there will be no squeeze on a no vote, as no broker will allow their clients to forward sell a conditional placing. They did use to, but that changed after what happened with NEW.

And yes, absolutely I am a trader. I make my money from catalyst driven medium term trades, and a massive oil drill is a huge catalyst.

[bad gateway] 28/5/2018 17:26

LOL I've just seen your tweet TMS..

The Mad Stork
‏
@The_MadStork
May 21
More
#AAOG As previously mentioned, I have taken a large amount in the placing. As long as they announce when they hit (geologically guaranteed) oil in the top 2 layers, it will do 20p+ mid drill. Awful track record yes, but big returns (postGM) from this level


No wonder you want to convince LT holders to vote for the dilution and not hold for a better financing alternative once 101 & 102 are producing.
geologically guaranteed. Big returns..Sounds like very useful collateral to me.

[bad gateway] 28/5/2018 17:14

I don't believe I've deemed them incompetent TMS would you please inform me of the post you're referring to?
From your last post I can see your a trader which is fine by me but you should note my comments on the large shorts and your belief of a rise to 14p+ on a pe of 7 is actually quite bullish for the share price and would likely lead to a decent short squeeze on a no vote not the big initial drop you fear.

[themadstork] 28/5/2018 16:53

According to Sefton and Berwick 101/2 will produce a combined 200bpd. 200bpd at $60 is $4.38m gross revenue, minus operating costs and G&A, call it $2m earnings, on a generous P/E of 7 that is $14m mcap or 14.2p at current shares in issue. Best case scenario, and after a big initial drop on a no vote.

And that's leaving aside the license issue, which would almost certainly be fatal.

I'm actually surprised you trust them to successfully run the production and the company after deeming them incompetent before. I'm not sure *I* would trust them either to do that, but I *do* trust them to ramp 103 for all it is worth and provide excellent short term gains from this area.

[bad gateway] 28/5/2018 16:39

Best case scenario according to AAOG would be 250BPD which at only $60/B would be revenue of $5.4m/year more than enough to negotiate a small bank loan I'd of thought?
If they can't manage it then perhaps ZEN or NTOG could put them onto lenders as they've done the same already.(ZEN several times)
As to the share price tanking on a no vote I would have thought that with the large sell trades that went through (1.5m-1.9m) after the RNS it would be worthwhile buying a few just for the short squeeze.