Anglo African Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 19:36

Agreed. £1 easily if we hit 5000bopd in the Djeno like our neighbours in the same Djeno field...but then the potentially even bigger excitement starts (if that's possible!) as we are carrying on drilling down to the unexplored Vandji layer. Can't wait,especially if we have already hit 5000bopd and are at £1 !

Then we have all those big dividends of 10p+ to look forward to if we hit the 5000bipd at Djeno, let alone the Vandji.

This has massive potential.

Our new CEO James Berwick arrived here on 23 Jan 2018 and is a seriuosly big name in the oil industry.

He helped transform Ophir Energy from a $10m company to a $3.2 BILLION company while he was Head of New Business at Ophir Energy between 2006-2013 !




"For the time being, Berwick told us that he will remain focused on completing the work programme set out by Anglo African at listing. Beyond this, his plans are ambitious.

‘My full focus right now is on the drilling of TLP-103, but once this has completed we can look at what the best route is to grow, both in the Republic of Congo and elsewhere. That’s what I do, I was lucky to have been brought into Ophir where we grew the business from $10m to $3.2bn. I have contacts in the majority of large companies and if we do something interesting then I am pretty sure we could bring in a partner,’ he said."

He clearly saw something BIG at AAOG.
Imagine a similar rise of 320x todays share price :0))

[daniel81] 02/1/2019 17:04

Now that would be perfect start to the new year :-)

[apfindley] 02/1/2019 16:54

Indeed, If oil is discovered in Djeno, we are looking at close to a quid here.

[daniel81] 02/1/2019 16:04

Bring it on.....

20p plus will be history when djeno is successfully drilled.

[rovi70] 02/1/2019 13:37

had a little nibble. new to this share. good board, thanks.

[tidy 2] 02/1/2019 11:12

#AAOG engineer, Alain Guiraud, and Company Man, Bill Richmond, hard at work at the Tialpia site. They have worked tirelessly to make 103C happen, and they are still hard at work as we finish up the logging and start drilling towards the Djeno.hTTps://twitter.com/angloafricanog/status/1080413941946376192?s=21Nice pics

[croxonopolis] 02/1/2019 11:00

Good leg up today too. Those pictures sort of say that good news is to come.

Maybe am logging results. Be interesting see what other things David will reveal. Great start to the year either way.

Looking forward to the interview

[honestmarty] 02/1/2019 10:57

Aaog have just tweeted fresh photographs from the site.
Message is finishing up logging now.

Fat Boy has an interview tomorrow.

High chance of logging results in am.

Looking, very, very, VERY, positive

[money4me] 02/1/2019 10:43

How long is the wireline going to take? Expectations are going up with the SP

[apfindley] 02/1/2019 09:12

Great informative posts for the benefit of all readers. Good work litho.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:26

BROKER VALUATION
Jun 2018


We have separately modelled the three different target horizons for the upcoming TLP103 well using the PSC terms detailed in Appendix I, a Brent oil price of US$65/bbl in 2018/19 and $70/bbl flat long term, and a 10% discount rate. Given that the production infrastructure is largely already in place, capex is mainly limited to future drilling/workover requirements on the different reservoirs. We also phase the capex so that it can be funded from operating cash flow. The CPR assumes fixed opex of US$62,650 per annum with variable opex of US$4.12/bbl in all of the scenarios.

R1-R2
For the producing R1/R2 reservoirs, we assume plateau production of 250 bpd is reached in 2021 with a well workover performed every other year to maintain output. Net cash generated in this case is ~$2m per annum once plateau production is achieved, generating a NPV of $13.2m or 6.3p/sh.

Mengo valuation
For the Mengo we have considered the Best (8.1mmbbls gross) and High (23.8mmbbls gross) contingent resource cases laid out in the CPR. For each, we have assumed Mengo wells have an IP of 800 bpd, but quickly decline to ~500bpd before stabilising at a more modest (10% p.a.) decline rate. The number of development wells required varies from five in the Best case to 13 in the High case, with 2-3 wells drilled per annum. We have assumed $3.5m for each well resulting in drilling costs of $18.5m and $50m for the Best and High cases respectively. This gives an unrisked valuation for the Mengo horizon of $68-169m (30-75p/sh), or 18-45p/sh on a risked basis.

Djeno valuation
For the Djeno, we have modelled the Best (15.9mmbbls gross) and High (42.3mmbbls gross) prospective resource cases as per the CPR. While neighbouring wells in the Djeno have achieved flow rates ~5,000 bpd, to be conservative we have assumed each well produces at 2,500 bpd with an initial decline rate of 25% p.a., moderating to 15% p.a. after four years. The number of development wells required varies from four in the Best case to 10 in the High case, with two wells drilled per annum. We have assumed drilling costs of $4m per well with an additional $2.5m capex for storage/topside facilities and $8m to connect to an export terminal. This gives development costs of $30.5m and $54.5m respectively for the Best and High resource cases, or $1.9/bbl and $1.3/bbl.This gives an unrisked valuation range for the Djeno horizon of $156-360m (69-159p/sh), or 16-39p/sh on a risked basis.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:25

NEARBY SUCCESSES - PT

CNOOC
*Haute Mer A is a deep-water licence, operated by CNOOC (45%), with 34mmbbl of gross best unrisked prospective resources across three prospects and three leads in multiple horizons. Oryx Petroleum’s 20% interest in this block is up for sale. The Elephant-1 discovery was drilled on this block in 2013, encountering oil and gas, although this was in Miocene Tertiary intervals.

SOCO International
*The Lidongo discovery was made in 2014 and flowed at 5,174bpd liquids and 3.65mmcfd gas (post-fraccing) from the Djeno sands in the Marine XI licence, 20km away from Tilapia. A 20-year production licence was granted in October 2016 with the company examining potential commercialisation options.

New Age Oil and Gas
*The company has 65% and 50% working interests in the Marine XII and Marine III licences. The former holds the Litchendjili, Nené and Minsala Marine discoveries with Marine III an early stage exploration licence. We note that the Tilapia licence was originally part of the Marine III licence

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:25

NEARBY SUCCESSES - PT 1

AAOG is surrounded by MAJOR's close by with major success rates hence the huge potential AAOG and high Chance of Success (CoS) of AAOG portfolio.

Finncap Broker Note - Jun 2018
hxxps://goo.gl/qvQrFR
Page 15-17

Adjacent exploration and production success
One of the key reasons AAOG is excited about the prospectivity within the Tilapia licence is the exploration and production success in the surrounding acreage in the Djeno sands by multiple companies

Eni
Eni production averaged 83 kboepd in the Republic of Congo in 2017 from more than a dozen fields. The following are in close proximity to Tilapia:
*The Loango oil field, 35km offshore in 90m water depth, was discovered in 1971 and started producing in 1985. The field consists of seven platforms; a production platform (PP) dedicated to the treatment of the produced oil and gas, and six well head platforms (DP1-6).
*The Zatchi oil field, located in the Madingo block, was discovered in 1980 and started up in 1988. Five fixed production platforms have been installed at the field.
*The Litchendjili gas field is estimated to have 1bn boe of resource in place. The field came onstream in June 2015 and is expected to ultimately produce at a rate of 140,000 boepd with the gas being fed into the CEC power station.
*The Nené Marine field started up in January 2015, just 16 months after being discovered. It is estimated to have 1.5bn boe in place and is located 25km away from AAOG's acreage in shallow water and is expected to have plateau production of over 140,000 boepd. Development will happen in several stages with production coming from the same pre-salt Djeno reservoir that AAOG is targeting with its TLP-103 well.
*The Minsala Marine field was discovered in October 2014 and tested at a rate of 5,000 bpd from the Djeno sands and is estimated to have 1bn boe of reserves.

TOTAL
TOTAL has been present in the Congo since 1968 and operates several offshore fields including Kombi-Likalala-Libondo (65%), Moho-Bilondo (53.5%), Nkossa and Nsoko (53.5%), Sendji and Yanga (55.25%). It also has interests in the Loanga (42.5%) and Zatchi (29.75%) fields, operated by Eni.
*Haute Mer B is a deep-water licence operated by TOTAL, which is estimated to have 195mmbbls of gross unrisked prospective resources in Cretaceous carbonate and Tertiary reservoirs. Oryx Petroleum recently announced the sale of its 30% stake to TOTAL for $8m, with the deal expected to close in Q2 2018. This will raise TOTAL’s interest in the licence to 64.6%.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:24

much better than bank interest rates...especially if we hit the Djeno 5000bopd+ as hoped for bearing in mind other nearby Majors are already producing 5000bopd in the same Djeno reservoir.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:22

The 50%-75% dividend is not per share, it is "between 50-75% of net profits after necessary capex."
In other words it is 50%-75% of the net profit at the time divided by the amount of shares in issue at the time.

Currently there are 177,929,038 shares in issue so the dividend estimates i have calculated myself are below (bearing in mind there will be more dilution so the estimated figs will be lower,but still give an indication of what to expect):

The broker suggests the following dividends(£m) with 177,929,038 shares in issue with my "per share" calcs. The Broker dividend estimates are AFTER AAOG's 56% ownership of Tilapia have been taken into account so no need to reduce to 56%. The deduction has already been made as its their revenue only from 56% ownership.

R1-R2 + Mengo (Best)
2019E.....£2.3m.....1.3p/share
2020E.....£3.6m.....2.0p/share
2021E.....£5.0m.....2.8p/share
2022E.....£5.9m.....3.3p/share

R1-R2 + Mengo (Best) + Djeno (Best)
2019E.....£16.4m.....9.2p/share
2020E.....£23.0m.....12.9p/share
2021E.....£30.2m.....16.7p/share
2022E.....£25.7m.....14.4p/share

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:22

50%-75% DIVIDENDS

Broker Note - Dividend commitment
hxxps://goo.gl/qvQrFR

Dividend Commitment:
Success then with either the Mengo or Djeno sands would be expected to result in meaningful earnings and cash generation, and open up the prospect of a significant dividend stream; management has committed to distributing between 50-75% of net profits after necessary capex.

Dividend policy
The company has stated that once production reaches 1,000 bpd and assuming that oil prices are not less than $30/bbl, it will distribute dividends of at least 50% of net profits after allowing for necessary capex and subject to the availability of distributable reserves. If production exceeds 5,000 bpd, it will distribute at least 75% of net profits.

Significant dividend potential.
Our risked NAV for the ‘Best’ resource case from all three of these horizons is 41p/sh (106p/sh unrisked). In the ‘High’ resource case this rises to 90p/sh (241p/sh unrisked). Moreover, success with either the Mengo or Djeno sands would be expected to result in meaningful earnings and cash generation and open up the prospect of a significant dividend stream; management has committed to distributing between 50-75% of net profits after necessary capex.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:21

hopefully a terrific couple of weeks and an amazing year ahead.

followed by regular income from the large divi's that AAOG have stated they will isue.

[lithological heterogeneities] 02/1/2019 08:17

live 11.4/11.6

[honestmarty] 31/12/2018 20:21

Interesting day.

We are still shaking off some of the 6.5p bargain traders.

But their friction is lessening with each share they sell.

If the wireline logging is as good as we hope, I can easily see another 40% here.

Before all the other events kick into the valuation.

Djeno, license, new assets.......

[apfindley] 31/12/2018 12:31

Oh dear.Why do you constantly mention funding.?Answer, you want to buy in cheaper.If the company can get some well logging done and prove the deeper zones too, then funding will be at a higher price and will be easy to secure too.Even with what we know so far, funding would be a lot easier than after the well pad problem.It's all looking good here. But people like you are always wanting to buy In cheaper.If you hold off too long for whatever reason you come up with, then it may be too late.. Good luck.

[tidy 2] 31/12/2018 12:22

Listen to seftons interview. States there alignment with holders funding will be 20p plus

[cashandcard] 31/12/2018 12:07

Daniel,The only place I get 'confirmed' news is via official RNS service. Not Twitter I'm afraid. I've seen too many PI's given nods and winks from unofficial coms that do not reconcile with the actual state of affairs. Keep in mind, management's role is to 'sing the praises' of their ship, even if there is an iceberg ahead.A business cannot realise its forward plans without funding in place. What type of funding? no idea. Which is why I'm gonna hold off for now. Not deramping, just clarifying my view and keeping an eye on this. I hope longstanding shareholders are treated to success in the Djeno.Cash

[tidy 2] 31/12/2018 11:43

That will be 20p plus cash.