Alternative Asset Opps Pcc Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 05/12/2014 15:25

Boystown - I think you've got that rather wrong.

Others are the experts here; but the two obvious problems are:

1. The 2p redemption in Aug'14

2. Your stats don't correlate with the latest NAV RNS (pre the last two maturities of course!):

17 November 2014

The Board of Alternative Asset Opportunities PCC Limited (the "Company") announces that the net asset value of the US Traded Life Interests Fund at 31 October 2014 was 44.0 pence per share.

[boystown] 05/12/2014 11:36

Well since the end of June when the interims were announced, the $ is now 8.35% stronger against the £, so adding that to the NAV along with the two policy maturities since the results (and the one announced with the interims but after the year end and not included in the NAV figure) gives a current NAV of 55.8pps less any costs incurred since the end of June. This implies the discount is now somewhere around 20%, quite a bit higher than when the results were announced despite the rise in the share price

In other words, the shares are effectively cheaper despite the fact that they're more expensive! :-)

Of course – this all pales into insignificance next to the weighted odds of the accelerating mortality rate. The FT said a month ago “the average age of the remaining roughly 75 individuals (and their 85 or more policies) is now about 90”, so that figure is now down by 2.

But the ‘real’ NAV, in all probability, could very easily be twice where it is now IMO whilst even if the policy holders live a lot longer than expected, any downside should be very limited.

All in all, I’m holding out for somewhere around 70pps / equivalent in pay-outs from here – however long it takes for the policies to mature.

The fact that TLI doesn’t correlate with markets at all is an added bonus.

[flying pig] 02/12/2014 21:39

Returns in $ so may be some added positive upside.....

[badtime] 02/12/2014 18:40

Out today..nice profit in a short space of time...all the best to holders of the 'stock'

[skyship] 02/12/2014 18:02

Ahh - sorry about that - entirely misread - mea culpa!

[courant] 02/12/2014 17:57

No, I think I meant what I said! The worst case is a slow and low realisation; the better case is faster and higher.

[skyship] 02/12/2014 13:05

C - thnx for that - I assume slight dyslexia in the figures below:

58p after 7 years, with a decent chance for 75p after 5 years

[courant] 02/12/2014 11:58

My worst case scenario was something like 58p after 7 years, with a decent chance for 75p after 5 years, possibly more and sooner. (This is from memory, my notes are buried somewhere - clearly *lots* of assumptions in here, and I did a fair bit of background research to convince myself of this one). My position was bought at an average just over 38.5p, so this is something like 6% pa for 7 years rising to 14% pa for 5 years. Obviously factoring in the recent rise reduces the returns a little but I think the worst case is still over 4% pa, with a potential for a lot more. It's up to you to judge the risk/return here!

[skyship] 02/12/2014 07:55

Courant - you're right of course, TLI likely to respond to a series of one-off events, if I can tastefully put it like that!

Still wondering whether to up my allocation, in spite of the recent rise.

Fast forward two years and (without distributions) what NAV level do you think we could see here?

[courant] 01/12/2014 18:34

SKYSHIP, not really when you consider the source of the returns, i.e. an unwinding of a fat discount (including DCV) on discrete events that are genuinely uncorrelated to the wider market! I'm as deep in here as I'm prepared to go and happy for it ;-)

[skyship] 27/11/2014 16:53

A bizarre holding to have delivered 14% in just a month! Just wish I'd elected for a larger allocation...

[playful] 27/11/2014 15:36

It will that's for sure...

[stemis] 27/11/2014 15:31

The two maturities have added 5.5p to NAV and derisked the 1.5p they were valued at (in total $8m). Price should have gone up to 45.5p.

[ironstorm] 27/11/2014 13:38

Number 2 . . . .

[rearsky] 27/11/2014 13:24

Revelation 14:13
Then I heard a voice from heaven say, "Write: Blessed are the dead who die in the Lord from now on." "Yes," says the Spirit, "they will rest from their labor, for their deeds will follow them."

[stemis] 27/11/2014 13:03

I see another cash return coming soon

[stemis] 27/11/2014 13:01

It's very cold in the US at the moment........

[capt bligh] 27/11/2014 12:31

4p to NAV =£2,880,000 6m$ =3.8M£. ie on the books at less than £1m ??? are all the policies on the same extreme discount?

[rearsky] 27/11/2014 12:23

RIP...harvesting times for us....

[playful] 27/11/2014 12:04

6m now that's a big one

[cockerhoop] 27/11/2014 11:57

You appear to be correct IronStorm........... and it's a big one $6m or 4p to NAV.

[ironstorm] 24/11/2014 13:16

Maybe it will be a bit like buses . . . . or mixing my metaphors - don't these things happen in 3s????

[cockerhoop] 24/11/2014 12:26

It's been a while since the last one, I was beginning to imagine they'd found the elixir to eternal life :-)

[playful] 24/11/2014 10:39

We have a nice maturity today :o)

[stemis] 18/11/2014 11:38

No, I agree. Its looks a bit odd.