Agcert Regs Share Discussion Threads

[devbod] 10/1/2007 08:53

Thanks Kalmar, went looking and found the full story at

Glad to see this was published yesterday. Perhaps it will get more coverage when its officially proposed today. If so then it wont do AGC any harm :)

Still tho, it wont be easy getting individual countries on board. No business is going to like seeing its input costs go up when competitors in other countries dont have to bother. Environment against jobs/taxes, politicions will have fun with this yet.

[kalmar] 09/1/2007 22:31

Devod..as you say...hopefully this will change..

"Pledging to extend and deepen the cuts could boost the EU's fledgling emissions trading system, which allows polluting industries to buy and sell emissions credits but has faltered because governments initially issued too many permits. Fewer permits would raise the price of emitting , EU officials say. "

[kalmar] 09/1/2007 22:23

EU plans bold cut in carbon output to lead way on climate
DAVID LAWSKY AND INGRID MELANDER
IN BRUSSELS
EUROPE will seek to spearhead the fight against global warming this week when the European Commission proposes a bold unilateral cut in greenhouse gas emissions.

The Commission will tomorrow propose that the European Union commit to unilateral cuts of carbon dioxide () emissions of 20 per cent from 1990 levels by 2020, EU officials said yesterday.

The 27-nation bloc will also challenge industrial nations around the world to agree a collective cut of 30 per cent by 2020 in the emissions blamed for climate change.

Despite EU claims to leadership, several member states have failed so far to meet existing commitments under the UN Kyoto Protocol that limits emissions of so-called greenhouse gases.

The new EU goal would be more ambitious than the existing 8 per cent target cut from 1990 levels in the 2008-12 period adopted by the 15 members of the EU before its 2004 enlargement.

Pledging to extend and deepen the cuts could boost the EU's fledgling emissions trading system, which allows polluting industries to buy and sell emissions credits but has faltered because governments initially issued too many permits. Fewer permits would raise the price of emitting , EU officials say.

European industry is worried competitors in the United States and elsewhere have an advantage because their governments have refused to commit to reducing emissions.

One thrust of the proposed Energy Policy for Europe is to cut the proportion of electricity generated from gas, coal and nuclear power and increase renewable energy.

The Commission is also likely to propose a binding target of meeting 20 per cent of EU energy needs from renewable sources by 2020, with no more than half from biofuels, officials said.

France fears such a target would pose big problems for its electricity sector, which is dominated by nuclear power.

Senior EU officials held talks yesterday on the strategy with last-minute discussion centred on measures to expose Europe's biggest power companies to more competition.

A draft of the energy plan showed the Commission intended to propose options including forcing power-generating companies to sell off their distribution assets.

[devbod] 09/1/2007 16:45

After the collapse in the price of credits mid last year due to many EU governments handing them out like confetti I suspect the markets are still a little nervous on this one.

Any news of tightening/enforcement of quotas will give this a shot in the arm. I would hope that the EU will do what it takes to make carbon trading a success.

[kalmar] 09/1/2007 16:35

lol...all the best D..

[deepeshmodasia] 09/1/2007 09:42

bailed today, had to get into scr, good luck to the rest of you, a major geen campaign is underway in europe so these will eventually bear fruit, patience however is definately not one of my virtues

[deepeshmodasia] 05/1/2007 09:17

Friday, 5th January 2007 08:40

AgCert finalises 1st part of 70 mln eur debt funding, continues talks on rest

LONDON (AFX) - AgCert International PLC said it has finalised the first part of its proposed 70 mln eur debt funding programme and that negotiations are on for the rest.

The company, which trades in agriculturally derived greenhouse gas emission reductions, said it has completed funding for a senior secured debt facility of 25 mln usd or around 19 mln eur, maturing in May 2008, from Laurus Master Fund Ltd.

The funding is divided into two parts of which 10 mln usd may be converted into equity at 149 pence, the company said.

AgCert added that it has also granted options on 4.23 mln shares exercisable by Laurus over five years from Dec 29, 2006.

[kalmar] 03/1/2007 14:00

always strange trading in this company....bigs sells....hardly any movement??..

[kalmar] 29/12/2006 12:12

well...the price has been stable after this move up ...which is good ...as others have said the share price action is strange with AGC...lets see what the new year brings..

Happy new year!

[kalmar] 22/12/2006 17:05

nice post Devod....quite right too....Merry Christmas one & all !!! -))

[devbod] 22/12/2006 14:04

I'll give it a go ;)

- They are growing very rapidly and are borrowing 70m euros to fund it.

- They have contracts to sell some of their emissions reductions at a fixed price. They have bought themselves out of some of these at a cost of 20m euros but can now sell the reductions on the open market at a higher price. Should increase profits by 33m to 75m over the life of the contracts.

- They have increased the efficiency of the process they use so have a lot more emission reductions they can sell per installation.

I like the first point best. As a small investor on the outside its often hard to judge the viability of a business model. Anyone lending 70m euros will have a tendancy to do that for us :)

Trading in this is strange. Majority sells, price rises. Realised my own buys were never reported so I'm guessing the buys that sheer economics dictate must be taking place are not appearing as LSE reported trades.

Anyway, time to forget investing and have a beer so a merry Christmas to all.

[wiganer] 21/12/2006 17:18

Was the trading statement deliberately written in strange moonman language?

Anyone care to translate to plain English?

[devbod] 21/12/2006 17:01

Looks like airlines wont be joining in till 2011.

[mcdougall1] 21/12/2006 16:33

deepeshmodasia,

It has been a very illiquid share, and any moves up or down have been quite swift, which is why I have been happy to hold on. Maybe the move to CREST will help, but generally the pattern has been to drift sideways or down in the absence of any news.

I think that the key issue is going to be the next stage of the EU trading scheme, it is probably the uncertainty caused by the over supply of credits earlier in this year, leading to a crash in the price of CO2 credits, that is holding this share back.

There was a suggestion sometime ago that not only should the amount of free credits allowed by each country be reduced, that industry should also pay for these via an auction or similar. Any announcements along these lines or extension to other industries such as the airline or construction industries would obviously be very favourable to Agcert, by creating further demand for CERs.

So to answer your question, I have no idea what will happen in the short term. Although from past experience, whenever any news does comes out it will probably be too late to catch any rise (or fall) if you are not already a holder.

McD.

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 16:09

mcdougall

youve obviously been following this for a while, do you expect much in the short term, previous rises have taken place within weeks, and i would have presumed on the back of good news like today....

cheers in advance, nervy student investor here, bought on the back of good news on renesola, doubled inv. within a couple of weeks, now invested half into this originally looking for a similar gain, oh well, am happy to hold for around 12 months

[mcdougall1] 21/12/2006 16:04

The restriction in the free issue of carbon credits is going to be essential to limit the supply of credits, to encourage the take up of carbon offsets. Hopefully this will be agreed in the run-up to the commencement of the second phase of trading in 2008. This is to my mind one of the biggest risks with this share, its bad enough having a business relying on the policies of any one government, but we are reliant on all the european countries to agree much reduced credits...

There has also been wider discussion of green taxes in the UK, which if the EU trading scheme works, could be an answer to this - For example making airlines obtain carbon credits to offset what they pollute.

2006 and 2007 are all going to be about the rollout of biodigesters and increasing the amount of carbon credits generated and really consolidating on the first mover position. It will probably only be from the start of 2008 that the financial benefits of this investment really kick-in, so for me this is a LTBH share.

McD.

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 16:03

agreed. with the new kyoto protocalls coming into effect in 2008, next year will be very interesting indeed. Good luck to all, lets hope this lil baby makes up for the gaping hole xmas will leave in my wallet

another big sell this definately isn't moving today, pity

[kalmar] 21/12/2006 15:49

I have just added...I have tracked this share since listing..but only bght at 147 last week...and it does move very sharply...but as in previous posts I think Risk/reward is excellent here....I am expecting lots of positive newsflow in the next few months...and we are all aware of the social issues...07 will be "the green year"...-)

[devbod] 21/12/2006 15:45

> as stable as you can get

'Stable' isnt a word I could use looking at the share price graph :) I understand what you are saying though, its hard to see this going down but the share price is still a rollercoaster. Still, thats what makes it an interesting buy. The company's fortunes seem tied up with the tradeable value of carbon emissions. These took a nose dive earlier in the year when it was discovered that many EU governments gave their power generators more credits than they needed to cover their current output. Apparently only the UK and Germany restricted the number enough to encourage CO2 reduction. With all the info now available perhaps more governments will jump on board by restricting quotas.

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 15:30

wouldn't mind a bit of re-asurance in the last hour of trading though

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 15:29

probably shorters keeping it down, i mean i am quite new to all this and would normally research for months before investing, however a government backed company seems as stable as you can get and with the green boom already underway i am happy to keep these for a while esp considering much more news is expected early next year

[devbod] 21/12/2006 15:25

Went looking back through recent days trading and that often seems to be the case yet the price goes up.

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 15:20

seems to be much more sells than buys as well, with the biggest 150kish coming in first thing.

May not be the quick buck i was looking for but am quietly confident as we have definately had a significant break out

[devbod] 21/12/2006 15:13

Did the same. Doesnt seem to have been any trading generated by the analyst conference call. Was hoping that would trigger more interest.

[deepeshmodasia] 21/12/2006 14:44

ok took the plunge, fingers crossed for next week, i hope at the very least when the americans digest the news will go up by at least another 10% quickly