African Min. Share Discussion Threads

[deusfaber] 02/2/2015 20:18

seany, with iron ore so low it really is a buyers market.
If glencore were offering anything near that why would aml be even talking to
sisg?

[seanywauny] 02/2/2015 19:54

Don't think Frank did all this work for £21mln. It wouldn't surprise me if a bid of £1.50 from Glencore got refused either.

[kirk 6] 02/2/2015 18:52

So we talking 50p a share

[casual47] 02/2/2015 16:56

The market value of AMI's shareholdings in OBT and CFE alone should be enough to pay the 400m bond coupon payment next week.

There should be no reason for AMI to default on that.

[casual47] 02/2/2015 16:43

Further to the post from Massey over on LSE.....here's my own calculations

If someone were to buy us out outright for £1 a share then they'd have to pay in total roughly 1,074.4m USD (not taking into account interest on loans and costs for selling out etc)

At the current USD-GBP exchange rate, a £1 share price corresponds to a market cap of 500 million USD (331,917,114 shares in issue).

Assets apart from TIO&ARPS:

1. There is $82.4m left in the restricted bank account. I presume this will be included.
2. Cape Lambert has an mcap of 49m AUD, or 38m USD. AMI owns 19.47%, so that's worth around 7.4m USD
3. Obtala Resources, current share price is 9.45p. AMI owns 21,170,422 shares, so that's worth around 2m GBP or 3m USD.
4. Stellar Diamonds: Not sure how much we hold but it's less than 3%

Did I forget anything?

Total non-TIO&ARPS assets: $93m.

Bonds & Loans:

400m USD bond. AMI owes 100% of this.

At least 7 full months of interest+repayment has been fully paid towards the PXF, so that would leave around 180m USD. AMI owes 75% of this, so 135m USD.

The two equipment finance loans combined were reduced to 120.3m USD as per the Interim Results RNS. AMI owes 75% of this, so 90.2m USD.

There is a shareholder loan from SISG worth 56.3m USD. AMI owes 75% of this, so 42.2m USD.

Total Bonds & Loans (AMI share): 667.4m

So:

500m (mcap in USD when share price is £1) + 667.4m (bonds&loans) - 93m (other assets) = 1,074.4m USD

[cantrememberthis2] 02/2/2015 11:54

MMMMMM

Interesting observation...
AML Parent Debt of $400m other debt distributed amongst AML and Others
$500m to over debt leaves little under 20p/share

Then again is 75% of a 12bn IO reserve with better grades through time worth $500m? Id say double that for a total buy out i.e. 40p-75p/share post costs etc.

Dont think with the above scenario a buy out is likely... Id be dreaming if that was on the cards..

[deusfaber] 02/2/2015 11:25

Frank Timis looks to be trying to raise the funds to buy out
AML.Something along those lines.
Lets see how serous these other parties are.

[casual47] 02/2/2015 10:21

One big event will be whether they will pay the 9th February coupon on the 400m bond. Should be around 10m USD. AMI could easily have the funds for it in cash.

Another big event will be around the 12th of March when the "Temporary Marampa Access Agreement and Loan" agreement is up for review.

Have there been any updates on Marampa? My understanding is that they will have got rid of all/most of the stockpile which was free money for FT. If so, will he now start mining? Would there be much point in restarting that mine when no solid agreement is in place re. use of rail?

I wish they would merge already and form a new company.

[earnestwipplethwaiteiii] 02/2/2015 10:10

Yes, it's crossed my mind several times over the past two months that this lack of agreement on funding between AML and SISG could be very convenient in capping losses, at a time when IO prices are bumping along on the floor.
Of course, one couldn't go so far as to call a lengthy suspension deliberate...

[seanywauny] 02/2/2015 09:48

W1NDAre you suggesting that we're buying time for Timis to acquire funds to get the stake?

[w1ndjammer] 02/2/2015 09:42

So about $7 mill per month to stay on C&M hmm maybe would cost more than that loss, to run the mine at full production at current IO prices, without the revamp to get costs down further.
does make me wonder if FT is happy to keep this up for now, 12 months money left.

WJ.

[seanywauny] 02/2/2015 09:19

The funds in the HK account if it went into admin would be seized by the administrators if it went down that road.So we're actually watching the debt holders salvageable cash being spent as well as them apparently holding off on interest payments due. That tells me they're positive of the outcome here otherwise they wound just call it in now and salvage more.

[substp] 02/2/2015 08:54

"payment of January salaries and taxes due in Sierra Leone"

Trying to keep them sweet?

[cantrememberthis2] 02/2/2015 08:50

Lets put it another way, would you as SISG be throwing good money after bad...

$12.5m+ last month and now $6m+

So just under $20m has been authorised. Even for large companies, that is a serious amount of cash...

High Stakes, Long Game

[fishyneck] 02/2/2015 08:24

Makes your heart flutter a little as you open the RNS to see what's there....surely this further cash injection makes admin less likely.

fn

[shimmysham12] 02/2/2015 08:22

Still we continue. Good news i think. But with this anything can happen.

It is groundhog day afterall..........

[seanywauny] 02/2/2015 08:21

Maybe we're talking to the IFC World Bank as well for the funds.

[cantrememberthis2] 02/2/2015 08:09

Yep, looks like some progress is certainly being made.

SISG didnt have to agree to release 2x tranche of monies over the last few months, considering all the issues between AML and SISG.

The screws could turn further.

As I keep re-iterating, even in Admin, the share % holding of TIO from AML side is still 75% of a 12bn reserve. If they could operate without AML which seems feasible they could remain like a silent partner or investment vehicle...

Who knows... glad it wasnt a negative admin RNS!

[kirk 6] 02/2/2015 07:37

Like this bit:The Company also continues to evaluate potential funding solutions with other parties, including but not limited to a partial sale of AML's stake in the Project.

[casual47] 01/2/2015 14:41

Yep. AMI parent only has the 400m bond against it. They do act as parent guarantor for e.g. the PXF. I only listed the bonds and loans so you're right, there are other monies owed, though not sure how those are allocated parent/project.

[deusfaber] 01/2/2015 14:35

Casual is that correct that on the company level the debt is limited to the
$400 million bond?They no doubt owe creditors and suppliers too.
The rest are all down to the operating companies??Of course AML has it's stake in that too.
Interesting if true.

[casual47] 01/2/2015 14:12

Here's what I distilled from the Interim Results 2014 RNS, does it look about right?

400m, unsecured - @AMI parent level, coupon payment due 9 February, matures February 2017

250m, secured against property, equipment etc - @TIO & ARPS, Interest is payable monthly on the last day of the month, Equal monthly repayments commencing on 31 March 2014 until the date of maturity, matures April 2016

96.5m, secured against property, equipment etc - @ARPS, Sep 2011, Interest & Repayments are payable quarterly, matures June 2017
92m, secured against property, equipment etc - @TIO & ARPS, Nov 2012, Interest & Repayments are payable quarterly, matures June 2018
These two as per Interim Results 2014 report have reduced to a nominal value of 120.3

56.3m, SISG shareholder loan, unsecured - @TIO , Interest is payable at maturity, matures 31 December 2014

[casual47] 01/2/2015 13:04

Too many rumours. There is also the assumption that AMI has no cash left. That isn't necessarily so. Who knows, they might have enough left to pay the coupon due in February. There is also an assumption Gibril is working against us by isolating the project companies away from the parent company. Perhaps this is actually protecting us as the most pressing financial commitments are on the project level.