African Barrick Gold Share Discussion Threads

[undervaluedassets] 21/9/2012 15:23

NOT playing catch up lately with other Goldies .

There is a sense vacuum that I suspect will suddenly be filled and see us shoot past £500p

With Gold spiking this should be an easier company to sell to the Chinese.

And as a low margin producer profits are set to rise exponentially due the leverage of a spiking gold price even without the the Chinese bid.

All the directors are long at prices mostly north of here. Any Buyers getting in now are paying less than the directors paid for their shares.

We should just hang on and wait for the inevitable re-rating.

Patience will be rewarded here one feels.

[robrah] 21/9/2012 13:53

Has anyone see the price of gold lately 1785!!!!Abg should fly

[undervaluedassets] 19/9/2012 19:25

re your question

[bsharman3] 19/9/2012 16:52

What happened to the 28 days and statement? Is there a deadline??

[undervaluedassets] 19/9/2012 15:11

What a mongrel bunch of recommendations ! very odd and to my mind very bullish. All the big boys over the last few days saying neutral or hold or sell apart from Nomura and then all the same big boys are buying the shares!

Just trying to shake the PI into selling .

Regardless of everything even with Chinese bid premium still the cheapest Gold stock on the FTSE.

Nomura target of £6.70 may turn out to be not too wide of the mark.

Blackrock buying yesterday is the clincher for me - if anyone knows what's what it is Blackrock.

[robrah] 19/9/2012 14:08

Abg breaks out next stop 500 p!!!

[lucky_punter] 19/9/2012 13:05

Broker Westhouse today revised up its forecast for gold prices this year and further out after the new round of US monetary easing announced last week.
Previous estimates of $1,600/oz for 2012, $1,500/oz for 2013 and $1,400 long term have been replaced by $1,675/oz for 2012, $1,750/oz for 2013, $1,675/oz for 2014 and $1,575/oz for 2015.

[undervaluedassets] 19/9/2012 09:21

looked over this again.

Dont know where they got the $3.9 billion from but I come up with a pretty fancy number that is north of £6 per share (if you do the math one way) and north of an eye - popping £8 if you do it another.

Can someone check this out too

[philo124] 19/9/2012 07:41

Yes, balance sheet is very strong.

[robrah] 18/9/2012 15:59

Lol ubs have bought more when they put out a negative note. Cant trust these clown can we.

[undervaluedassets] 18/9/2012 15:39

Blackrock have bought again and so have UBS

Broker notes have been negative or neutral last couple of days yet there is lots of buys by the the big boys last couple of days and price is going up.

somebody knows something is my feeling here..

[undervaluedassets] 17/9/2012 16:24

"knowledgeable" buying toward the close.

Blackrock seem to have increased their holding.

[weemonkey] 14/9/2012 15:52

Still not trading at the price at which directors bought their stakes.

There has been no director selling ever here - only buying; From which one can only conclude that directors see undervaluation here. This suspicion has of course now been confirmed by the Chinese interest.

Strangely we did not really advance much as compared with all the other goldies on Friday.

Suspect we will catch up. Too good an asset not to. . .

[undervaluedassets] 14/9/2012 11:15

Even after today's little pop up Price to net tangible asset value still only 1.2.

RRS trades on a price to net tangible asset ration of 4.45.

Only POG has better ratio (but labours under nearly a 1 billion of debt)

Price to net tangible asset value of 1.2 and no debts is an eye-popping number for any gold miner . No wonder the Chinese are sniffing.

[robrah] 14/9/2012 10:18

Seems we are stuck at 4.75 hopefully this time this the resistance will break and head higher

[robrah] 14/9/2012 07:07

this could fly one of these days .

it has top grades and the CEO is a top man from Randgold .

GMP:

10 September 2012
SUBJECT: Drilling and trenching results from Ndablama and Gondoja
IMPACT: Slight positive – Aureus Mining announced results at Ndablama and Gondoja with highlights of 11m @ 7.1g/t, 6m @ 11.7g/t and trench highlights of 10m @ 7.8g/t. We think these results continue to demonstrate a significant hydrothermal system extending 13km from Leopard Rock in the south to Gondoja in the North. As geological understanding improves with drilling, we expect the chances of a commercial discovery (either satellite ounces or stand-alone operation) to increase as drilling narrows in on key targets.
DETAILS: Aureus Mining announced phase two drilling and trenching results from Ndablama and Gondoja targets, both located within the company's 100% owned Bea Mountain license (457km2) in Liberia. This programme returned highlights of 11m @ 7.1g/t, 3.3m @ 4.8g/t and 10m @ 7.8m (trench) from Ndablama, and 6m @ 11.7g/t, 3m @ 14.8g/t and 38m @ 1.2g/t (trench) from Gondoja. Additional work on the Gbalidee target located 2km south-west of Gondoja was completed and comprised four trenches (235m) and five drill holes with results pending.
An IP and magnetic survey was completed over a 1.8km2 area which included the southern portion of Ndablama and the northern portion of Leopard Rock. This survey confirmed previous airborne geophysical data which highlighted the possible presence of a broad sulphide bearing body connecting both targets which the company expects to drill test following the wet season in October 2012.
OUR VIEW: Today's results continue to prove the extent of mineralisation across the company's significant 457km2 land package. In our view Ndablama and Gondoja sit within a complicated but sizeable belt with both high grade veins and low- to medium-grade haloes. In our view, this extent and structural complexity is characteristic of a large hydrothermal system given the consistent intersections along the 13km strike from Leopard Rock to Gondoja. We think the next step now is to narrow in on more concentrated areas which could potentially host deposits similar to New Liberty. Also, a key near-mine target to drill out is Weaju given (1) legacy mining claims have been resolved and (2) it hosts a non-compliant 233koz @ 10.9g/t. The DFS and mining license sign-off which should come in before year end are also key upcoming catalysts.
CATALYSTS:
2H12 - Final DFS and revised (increased) reserve
4Q12 – Potential financing for New Liberty
1H13 – Targeted first pour at New Liberty

[undervaluedassets] 14/9/2012 06:14

Well it looks as if it happening - Gold is heading back to the highs and beyond -poss to $2000.

For low margins producers the maths is compelling:-

For a high margin producer making $1000 per ounce on a $1500 gold price the new gold price of $2000 means your profits go up by 50%.(you go from making $1000 to $1500 - so 50%)

But for a lower margin producer making $500 on a $1500 gold price means that the new gold price of $2000 means your profits surge by 100% (you go from making $500 to $1000 - Ahem a 100% rise in profitability !)

Give or take a few tens of dollars this latter is ABG's situation.

Also Last interims set a very low hurdle that we have to cross in terms of comparibles so there is a turnaround situ already available with the surge in the gold price.

And this of course will strengthen the negotiators hand when it come to selling the asset (should we sell)

Could get very tasty today.

[robrah] 13/9/2012 19:19

Could open 600p . Lol

[robrah] 13/9/2012 19:19

Well well we have qe

[undervaluedassets] 12/9/2012 16:25

Management clearly saw the value at prices well north of the current price spending more than £470 million on share purchases since march 2011

One must assume that any bid will be well above what ABG management paid for stock .

Surging gold prices, The chinese bid, and management willingness to shell out for shares at prices well above where we trade now suggest that current price is simply wrong even with the bid premium.

[undervaluedassets] 12/9/2012 16:25

Aleks.

I think we should be hoping that the bid goes away

at $2000 per ounce profits double here.

That infers a doubled price which are not going to get from the chinese

The chinese bid + the mine invasions are all confirmers that this is a hugely rich asset.

Just needs managing better.

[aleks_atanasov] 12/9/2012 15:47

Barrick Says African Talks Still at 'Very Early' Stage

[undervaluedassets] 12/9/2012 09:23

If gold is going to $2000 then margins (and profits) for ABG will roughly double.

Fantastic

Costs stand at just under $1000 per ounce (last average realized gold price for ABG's gold was at last interims was $1524 per ounce).

so yes profits will roughly double if the gold price goes to $2000

The math is simple and compelling (and tells me that the £6.00 whisper number is not enough)

I hope the deal does not go through and that ABG get a grip on the ground.

Always has been undervalued.