Afren Share Discussion Threads

[gpmh1] 06/2/2008 21:14

Africa Intelligence

NIGERIA
How Gazprom Barrelled its Way In

"Arriving with much fanfare in Abuja in December, the Russia's Gazprom can count on backing from Rilwanu Lukman, the Nigerian president's leading adviser on oil and gas. And in its dealings in Nigeria, Gazprom could well link up with its European partner, Germany's E.On Ruhrgas......."



...Interesting Reading and I have to say I wouldn't be surprised if Gazprom links up with Afren/Aflng also.

Regards
gpmh1

[mikey_b] 06/2/2008 18:29

Thank you Jack. useful info.

mikey.

[keith2006] 06/2/2008 18:18

Thanks for the update Jack
Keith

[5bag] 06/2/2008 18:12

Definitely jack

regards

[jack brent] 06/2/2008 17:38

Being doing a little research regarding Shell's statement last week concerning their future activity in Nigeria. It's my understanding that under their current agreement with the Nigerian Govt. Shell and the other super majors netback between circa $2.50-3.00 per barrel under the existing MoU. This MoU was put in place when oil prices were below $15/bbl at a taxable rate of 85% and oil prices capped at $30/bbl. Given NNPC's problems with funding their Shells cash calls, a large number of proven fields are not being developed. Estimates given to me suggest there are approximately 280 fields between 10 and 100mmbbl that are undeveloped.???????

As I've stated in the past, this is the bigger prize for the likes of Afren and it's my belief that discussions with Shell and parallel discussions with the Government to carve out such fields under indigenous terms are reaching a pivotal point. The terms for indigenous companies being far more favourable than the ones quoted above for Shell. i.e. if AFR were to develop these fields with an indigenous oil company they can achieve a pre payback of circa $24/bbl based on oil being $50/bbl which is roughly what we'll achieve at Okoro Setu.

This year you have seen Shell most vocal about the potential rationalization of their Nigerian portfolio. Afren has been in discussions for over two years now so as mentioned I'd be surprised if we didn't hear some plans for this over the next few months.

Regarding developments at Okoro/Setu, I'm expecting an update either before or at Oil Barrel later this month.

Very exciting time for all AFR holders.

Regards, JB

[5bag] 06/2/2008 17:15

Yep, the nigerian oil ministry are just getting tough with 'big oil', whilst trying to cultivate foreign cooperation with indigenous companies, which just happens to be a strength of Afren. Big oil getting a rough ride there, but its been happening for a while now....

[makkaroni] 06/2/2008 17:10

and who is the advisor of the nigerian government? Lukman :-))))))

more licences for Afren, this would be the right consequence

this is cool, on the right place here with AFR

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:54

less bonus dollars per explo barrel :-)

might deter foreign investment, thus helping indigenous companies perhaps..

i like the bit "the spokesman told Thomson Financial News.
"We're still studying what it means and what its consequences are," he
added.
",

even RDS don't know lol.

[soulsauce] 06/2/2008 16:51

Not sure what this means for Afren:-

Shell says Nigerian govt wants to cancel oil exploration incentives




LONDON (Thomson Financial) - The Nigerian government is looking at
withdrawing an incentive scheme for oil exploration projects in the country,
said a spokesman at the Anglo-Dutch oil group Royal Dutch Shell PLC.
"We got a letter from the government informing us of (its plan) to change
the regulations," the spokesman told Thomson Financial News.
"We're still studying what it means and what its consequences are," he
added.
The scheme rewards companies a bonus for every barrel of oil they discover.
It was introduced in the late-1990s to encourage oil exploration in Nigeria at a
time when oil prices in the world market were still low.
The rule change will affect Shell and all the foreign companies operating in
the country, including ExxonMobil Corp, Total SA and Eni SpA.

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:43

Pivots for 7th Feb 08



R3 110.33
R2 107.67
R1 106.33
PP 103.67
S1 102.33
S2 99.67
S3 98.33

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:41

crest up from 12.60% to;


On Loan as % in Crest 12.68 %

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:40

obv on the rise..

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:39

well, MID price finished above the 104p+ range..... looks that gap at 96p might not be filled. no more cheap stock. lol.

120p next stop..

production end of march..

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:28

thres ya 105p keith.

curently 104.75 to 105.25

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 16:08

does anyone here knwo the P2 reserves for Tullow ??

cant sem to find it.

cheers

[keith2006] 06/2/2008 16:06

Teetering on the brink go on Afren 105p to finish the day, time for me now to take the dog for a walk,,,,,,,,,,, it's a hard life

[volsung] 06/2/2008 15:21

Ta leeson.

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 15:19

Volsung, as ya probly know, there is a gap at 96.5p but, seemingly too much strength has eroded that possibility of it being filled...

good luck !

[volsung] 06/2/2008 15:17

I have doubled my holding. Like the chart and the prospects.

[keith2006] 06/2/2008 15:11

Thanks Leeson am beginning to think some good news may not be far away

[leeson31] 06/2/2008 14:44

if it finsihed end of day above the blue line, then that'l be a buy signal for T tarders imho.. so far its obviously onlyintra day, but again, a buy signal for some t traders... going on the basis of he trend now going up andpast a previous support point.

keith - I think jacks ya man for that info. Id have though the rig is on site, amarda perkasa very near to destination and hook up.. but over to jack...

:-)

[keith2006] 06/2/2008 14:27

Do you have anything for us Jack/Leeson regarding drill rig being on site or even drilling, been on rig-zone it says Afren are drilling but it's been saying that for a while now, i think a few days after it finished in Gabon so not sure at all
Thanks Keith

[volsung] 06/2/2008 14:24

In for a small punt. Looking interesting!

[jack brent] 06/2/2008 14:21

Level II looking very healthy.