EDISON EQUITY RESEARCH - BELLUS HEALTH

EDISON EQUITY RESEARCH: BELLUS HEALTH - AA AMYLOIDOSIS PIVOTAL STUDY FULLY ENROLLED

 Bellus’s lead candidate, Kiacta, recently reached full recruitment for the pivotal Phase III trial for AA amyloidosis, with data expected in 2016. We estimate the probability of success at 60%, given positive efficacy trends in a previous Phase II/III study and design elements that could raise the likelihood of statistical separation vs placebo. Bellus’s partner, Auven Therapeutics, is funding a Phase II Kiacta study in sarcoidosis, to start in Q115. The potential for premium pricing and extended market exclusivity drive our C$110m rNPV, which continues to reflect upside even after Bellus’s share price has more than tripled ytd.

 Bellus Health is a Canadian drug development company whose lead candidate, Kiacta, is in a pivotal Phase III trial for amyloid A (AA) amyloidosis and is being studied in sarcoidosis. Shigamab is in preclinical development for Shiga toxin-associated haemolytic uremic syndrome (STEC-HUS).

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