U.S. Restaurants' 3rd-Quarter Same-Store Sales Growth Seen at 2.8%

    By Tess Stynes 
 

U.S. restaurant companies are expected to record a combined same-store sales increase of 2.8% for the third quarter, with growth slowing from both the second quarter and the year-earlier period, according to data from Thomson Reuters Corp.

Based on conference call transcripts, Thomson Reuters said a number of restaurants have been warning investors about impacts from a drought in the Midwest that has been adding to cost pressures in the sector.

The latest same-store sales estimates compare with a second-quarter same-store sales increase of 3.8%. Same-store-sales growth was pegged at 2.9% a year earlier.

The quick-service sector appears strongest for the third quarter, with growth estimated at 3.4%, though that is down from a 4.3% rise a year earlier. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) and Panera Bread Co. (PNRA) have the highest estimates, both at 5.4% growth, though that is lower than year-earlier results.

Forecasts for the overall industry and the quick-service segment both are higher excluding McDonald's Corp. (MCD) with growth of 3.1% and 4.2% for the current period.

The casual-dining segment lags behind with same-store growth of 1% expected, compared with 1.2% a year earlier. The most impressive growth is expected at Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. (BWLD) and Texas Roadhouse Inc. (TXRH), with increases of 6% and 4%, respectively.

Excluding Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI), casual segment same-store growth is seen at 1.8%, compared with 0.4%.

Thomson Reuters cited StarMine analyst data that indicate Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc. (CBRL) has the highest earnings sensitivity to commodity price increases.

Write to Tess Stynes at [e-mail]

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