3rd UPDATE: Retailers Post First Sales Gain In Year

U.S. retailers in September collectively posted their first growth in same-store sales since August 2008, with several hopeful signs reported by an industry mired in an extended slump.

The September showing prompted a number of retailers, including Target Corp. (TGT), J.C. Penney Co. (JCP) and Kohl's Corp. (KSS) to issue optimistic earnings outlooks. Meanwhile, Victoria's Secret parent Limited Inc. (LTD) reported its first same-store-sales increase since August 2007.

It's too early to say retailers turned the corner, as the year-to-year comparison benefited from factors including a later start for many schools and weakness last year, making the ability to show growth much easier than had been the case throughout 2009. Retailers have been slow to recover even as other areas of the economy such as manufacturing and home sales have been showing signs of improvement. High unemployment and consumer debt are still clouding the sales outlook, particularly heading into the all-important holiday-shopping season.

Still, the September results were better than predicted and may indicate that pent-up demand is being released by consumers after they hunkered down during one of the worst recessions in memory.

"Give me a couple more months of improvement and I'll feel better," said Craig Rowley, head of the retail practice at consulting firm Hay Group. Nonetheless, he added, "there is some sentiment on the part of the consumer that the worst of the economic downturn is over."

The closely watched same-store-sales index calculated by Thomson Reuters rose 0.6% for September, when a 1.1% decline was expected for the 30 retailers it tracks. The increase allowed the industry to avoid what would have been the first time this decade that the same month had two straight years of same-store sales decline.

Shares of retailers rose on the numbers, with a handful of stocks hitting 52-week highs. The Standard & Poor's retail index was up 1.9% in recent trading, with shares of Macy's up 5% at $19.52 and shares of Limited up 4% at $18.54.

Discounters continued to fare relatively well last month, as shoppers adjust their habits amid the difficult economic climate. The September figures also showed that beaten-down segments such as department stores and teen-apparel chains performed better than anticipated, though some still showed sizable declines.

Retail executives remained guarded despite the better-than-expected numbers.

"We're still cautious but we're seeing some encouraging trends," said Mike Ullman, chairman and chief executive officer of J.C. Penney. "Mall traffic is picking up" and the amount of buying when people are in stores has increased versus a year ago, he noted.

Howard R. Levine, chief executive at Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO), part of the discount group that has held up best during most of the recession, isn't convinced that a turnaround is occurring. "It's unclear when we will see (economic) conditions improve," he said, adding that even when conditions do improve, consumers will still seek value.

Analysts also warned against calling September the beginning of a recovery for retailers.

"This very positive news could be setting itself up for irrational exuberance," said Todd Slater, retail analyst at Lazard Capital Markets in a research note.

When retailers beat expectations by a large margin in one month, they usually miss consensus numbers in the following period, "which simply means that expectations tend to get ahead of themselves pretty quickly," Slater said.

The September results reflect how retailers have crafted pricing strategies that at least some consumers are willing to bear. The question remains how low retailers can go and still maintain decent profit margins.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF), for example, only recently adopted a promotional approach after being hammered by rivals. The 18% sales decline in September for the teen-apparel company was better than expected and represented the first time it beat expectations in five months.

Lower-priced rival Aeropostale Inc. (ARO) saw a 19% increase, and raised its fiscal third-quarter profit target. American Eagle Outfitters Inc. (AEO) also projected earnings at or above its prior forecast.

Department stores also showed improved performance, with Macy's Inc. (M) posting a 2.3% drop - half of the decline that analysts estimated - while struggling smaller peer Dillard's Inc. (DDS) also had a narrower-than-expected decline. J.C. Penney and Kohl's also topped estimates, helping to prompt their boosted forecasts.

Gap Inc. (GPS) posted a roughly in-line 1% drop. Its long-struggling Old Navy chain reported surprise growth in August and posted a stronger-than-expected 13% jump for September - the biggest monthly gain in five-and-a-half-years. The company said merchandise margins for the month were "significantly" above year-earlier levels.

Among discounters, BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. (BJ) on Thursday posted a 5.5% gain excluding gasoline sales, another month of outpacing peers but below analysts' expectations. Costco on Wednesday reported a 3% rise on that basis in the U.S., double estimates.

Off-price apparel sellers TJX Cos. (TJX) and Ross Stores Inc. (ROST) have been posting some of the best results of late, and they had growth of 7% and 8%, respectively, again topping expectations.

-By Karen Talley, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2196; [e-mail]

(Kevin Kingsbury and Mary Ellen Lloyd contributed to this article)